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Updated: 2019 JUL 31, 23:16 UT
Event Rank : 58
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Sep 29 UT, the 32.2430905975898 km diameter asteroid (1213) Algeria will occult a 7.7 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a fairly narrow path of significant uncertainty across Tasmania from Melaluca to Scottsdale, passing a little north of Hobart and near Launceston. The one sigma limit includes all of Tasmania south-east of Queenstown and Devenport.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.65 mag to 15.35 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
144 27 15 -45 0 0 13 37 12 31 336 -42 144 2 7 144 52 31 143 10 29 145 45 10 1.34
145 18 51 -44 0 0 13 37 0 32 335 -43 144 53 53 145 43 56 144 2 37 146 36 14 1.34
146 11 37 -43 0 0 13 36 46 33 333 -44 145 46 48 146 36 33 144 55 50 147 28 34 1.34
147 5 36 -42 0 0 13 36 33 33 332 -45 146 40 54 147 30 26 145 50 12 148 22 13 1.34
148 0 52 -41 0 0 13 36 19 34 331 -46 147 36 16 148 25 37 146 45 45 149 17 14 1.34
148 57 28 -40 0 0 13 36 5 34 330 -47 148 32 55 149 22 9 147 42 33 150 13 40 1.34
149 55 28 -39 0 0 13 35 51 35 328 -49 149 30 57 150 20 7 148 40 39 151 11 35 1.34
150 54 56 -38 0 0 13 35 36 35 327 -50 150 30 24 151 19 35 149 40 8 152 11 5 1.34
151 55 56 -37 0 0 13 35 21 36 325 -51 151 31 23 152 20 38 150 41 3 153 12 12 1.34
152 58 34 -36 0 0 13 35 5 36 324 -52 152 33 58 153 23 20 151 43 31 154 15 5 1.34
154 2 57 -35 0 0 13 34 49 36 322 -53 153 38 14 154 27 49 152 47 37 155 19 48 1.33
155 9 10 -34 0 0 13 34 33 37 321 -54 154 44 19 155 34 11 153 53 26 156 26 29 1.33
156 17 22 -33 0 0 13 34 16 37 319 -55 155 52 20 156 42 34 155 1 7 157 35 17 1.33
157 27 41 -32 0 0 13 33 59 37 318 -56 157 2 26 157 53 6 156 10 47 158 46 20 1.33
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 31.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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