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Updated: 2019 JUL 31, 22:17 UT
Event Rank : 2
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Sep 27 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (145627) 2006 RY102 will occult a 9.5 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow path of great uncertainty across Australia, from near Cooktown across western Queensland and eastern South Australia to west of Adelaide. It appears most of Australia - all but western Western Australia - is within the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 10.85 mag to 20.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 14.1 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 32 31 -49 1 18 14 10 54 39 268 -39 137 19 30 -49 1 23 137 45 35 -49 1 11 121 35 58 -48 0 5 158 13 47 -46 53 8 -1.23
137 23 7 -48 27 11 14 11 38 39 267 -40 137 10 14 -48 27 16 137 36 3 -48 27 4 121 36 32 -47 26 51 157 52 24 -46 19 42 -1.23
137 14 19 -47 53 2 14 12 23 39 267 -40 137 1 34 -47 53 8 137 27 6 -47 52 55 121 37 17 -46 53 38 157 32 13 -45 46 1 -1.24
137 6 5 -47 18 52 14 13 7 39 266 -41 136 53 28 -47 18 58 137 18 45 -47 18 44 121 38 13 -46 20 25 157 13 14 -45 12 5 -1.24
136 58 26 -46 44 39 14 13 52 39 266 -41 136 45 55 -46 44 46 137 10 58 -46 44 31 121 39 21 -45 47 13 156 55 24 -44 37 55 -1.25
136 51 19 -46 10 24 14 14 36 39 265 -42 136 38 56 -46 10 31 137 3 44 -46 10 15 121 40 39 -45 14 1 156 38 42 -44 3 29 -1.25
136 44 44 -45 36 6 14 15 21 38 265 -42 136 32 28 -45 36 14 136 57 3 -45 35 57 121 42 8 -44 40 49 156 23 8 -43 28 48 -1.26
136 38 42 -45 1 45 14 16 5 38 264 -43 136 26 31 -45 1 53 136 50 54 -45 1 35 121 43 48 -44 7 36 156 8 40 -42 53 51 -1.27
136 33 10 -44 27 21 14 16 50 38 264 -44 136 21 6 -44 27 29 136 45 17 -44 27 10 121 45 39 -43 34 23 155 55 17 -42 18 38 -1.27
136 28 9 -43 52 52 14 17 34 38 263 -44 136 16 10 -43 53 2 136 40 10 -43 52 41 121 47 41 -43 1 9 155 42 59 -41 43 9 -1.28
136 23 38 -43 18 20 14 18 18 38 263 -45 136 11 44 -43 18 31 136 35 33 -43 18 9 121 49 55 -42 27 53 155 31 45 -41 7 22 -1.28
136 19 37 -42 43 44 14 19 3 38 262 -45 136 7 48 -42 43 55 136 31 27 -42 43 31 121 52 20 -41 54 36 155 21 36 -40 31 18 -1.29
136 16 5 -42 9 3 14 19 47 38 262 -46 136 4 21 -42 9 15 136 27 50 -42 8 49 121 54 56 -41 21 17 155 12 30 -39 54 55 -1.30
136 13 2 -41 34 17 14 20 32 37 261 -46 136 1 23 -41 34 30 136 24 43 -41 34 2 121 57 43 -40 47 56 155 4 29 -39 18 13 -1.30
136 10 29 -40 59 25 14 21 16 37 261 -47 135 58 54 -40 59 39 136 22 6 -40 59 9 122 0 43 -40 14 33 154 57 32 -38 41 11 -1.31
136 8 24 -40 24 27 14 22 1 37 260 -48 135 56 54 -40 24 43 136 19 57 -40 24 10 122 3 54 -39 41 6 154 51 41 -38 3 47 -1.32
136 6 49 -39 49 23 14 22 45 37 260 -48 135 55 22 -39 49 40 136 18 18 -39 49 5 122 7 18 -39 7 37 154 46 56 -37 26 1 -1.32
136 5 42 -39 14 13 14 23 30 37 259 -49 135 54 19 -39 14 31 136 17 8 -39 13 53 122 10 53 -38 34 4 154 43 18 -36 47 51 -1.33
136 5 4 -38 38 55 14 24 14 36 259 -49 135 53 44 -38 39 14 136 16 27 -38 38 34 122 14 42 -38 0 28 154 40 50 -36 9 16 -1.34
136 4 56 -38 3 29 14 24 59 36 258 -50 135 53 39 -38 3 50 136 16 15 -38 3 7 122 18 43 -37 26 47 154 39 32 -35 30 14 -1.35
136 5 17 -37 27 56 14 25 43 36 257 -51 135 54 2 -37 28 18 136 16 33 -37 27 32 122 22 57 -36 53 3 154 39 27 -34 50 43 1.35
136 6 7 -36 52 13 14 26 28 35 257 -51 135 54 55 -36 52 37 136 17 21 -36 51 48 122 27 25 -36 19 13 154 40 39 -34 10 40 1.36
136 7 27 -36 16 21 14 27 12 35 256 -52 135 56 18 -36 16 47 136 18 40 -36 15 54 122 32 6 -35 45 18 154 43 10 -33 30 4 1.37
136 9 18 -35 40 19 14 27 57 35 256 -53 135 58 10 -35 40 47 136 20 29 -35 39 50 122 37 1 -35 11 18 154 47 5 -32 48 51 1.38
136 11 40 -35 4 7 14 28 41 35 255 -53 136 0 33 -35 4 36 136 22 49 -35 3 36 122 42 11 -34 37 12 154 52 28 -32 6 57 1.39
136 14 33 -34 27 44 14 29 26 34 255 -54 136 3 28 -34 28 15 136 25 40 -34 27 11 122 47 36 -34 2 59 154 59 25 -31 24 20 1.39
136 17 58 -33 51 8 14 30 10 34 254 -54 136 6 54 -33 51 42 136 29 4 -33 50 33 122 53 16 -33 28 40 155 8 4 -30 40 54 1.40
136 21 56 -33 14 20 14 30 55 33 254 -55 136 10 52 -33 14 56 136 33 2 -33 13 42 122 59 11 -32 54 14 155 18 34 -29 56 34 1.41
136 26 27 -32 37 18 14 31 39 33 253 -56 136 15 24 -32 37 56 136 37 33 -32 36 38 123 5 23 -32 19 40 155 31 4 -29 11 13 1.42
136 31 34 -32 0 2 14 32 23 33 253 -56 136 20 31 -32 0 43 136 42 40 -31 59 20 123 11 52 -31 44 58 155 45 49 -28 24 42 1.43
136 37 16 -31 22 31 14 33 8 32 253 -57 136 26 12 -31 23 14 136 48 22 -31 21 45 123 18 38 -31 10 8 156 3 5 -27 36 52 1.44
136 43 35 -30 44 43 14 33 52 32 252 -58 136 32 31 -30 45 29 136 54 42 -30 43 55 123 25 41 -30 35 8 156 23 14 -26 47 29 1.45
136 50 32 -30 6 38 14 34 37 31 252 -58 136 39 27 -30 7 27 137 1 41 -30 5 46 123 33 4 -29 59 59 156 46 45 -25 56 15 1.46
136 58 10 -29 28 14 14 35 21 31 251 -59 136 47 3 -29 29 7 137 9 19 -29 27 19 123 40 45 -29 24 40 157 14 18 -25 2 48 1.46
137 6 29 -28 49 30 14 36 6 30 251 -60 136 55 20 -28 50 27 137 17 40 -28 48 32 123 48 47 -28 49 10 157 46 49 -24 6 32 1.47
137 15 31 -28 10 25 14 36 50 30 250 -60 137 4 20 -28 11 25 137 26 45 -28 9 23 123 57 9 -28 13 29 158 25 46 -23 6 39 1.48
137 25 19 -27 30 58 14 37 35 29 250 -61 137 14 5 -27 32 2 137 36 36 -27 29 52 124 5 53 -27 37 36 159 13 31 -22 1 43 1.49
137 35 55 -26 51 5 14 38 19 29 249 -62 137 24 37 -26 52 14 137 47 16 -26 49 55 124 15 0 -27 1 30 160 14 34 -20 49 8 1.50
137 47 22 -26 10 47 14 39 4 28 249 -62 137 36 0 -26 12 0 137 58 47 -26 9 32 124 24 30 -26 25 11 161 39 48 -19 22 32 1.51
137 59 43 -25 30 0 14 39 48 28 248 -63 137 48 16 -25 31 18 138 11 13 -25 28 40 124 34 24 -25 48 37 164 24 29 -17 9 51 1.52
138 13 1 -24 48 43 14 40 33 27 248 -64 138 1 28 -24 50 6 138 24 37 -24 47 17 124 44 44 -25 11 48 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.53
138 27 20 -24 6 52 14 41 17 27 248 -64 138 15 41 -24 8 21 138 39 2 -24 5 20 124 55 32 -24 34 44 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.54
138 42 45 -23 24 25 14 42 2 26 247 -65 138 30 59 -23 26 0 138 54 35 -23 22 47 125 6 47 -23 57 23 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.55
138 59 21 -22 41 18 14 42 46 25 247 -66 138 47 26 -22 43 1 139 11 20 -22 39 33 125 18 32 -23 19 43 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.56
139 17 14 -21 57 28 14 43 31 25 246 -66 139 5 10 -21 59 19 139 29 23 -21 55 35 125 30 49 -22 41 45 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.57
139 36 31 -21 12 51 14 44 15 24 246 -67 139 24 16 -21 14 50 139 48 52 -21 10 49 125 43 39 -22 3 27 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.57
139 57 21 -20 27 21 14 45 0 23 245 -68 139 44 52 -20 29 29 140 9 54 -20 25 9 125 57 3 -21 24 47 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.58
140 19 53 -19 40 52 14 45 44 22 245 -68 140 7 10 -19 43 10 140 32 42 -19 38 29 126 11 5 -20 45 44 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.59
140 44 19 -18 53 16 14 46 28 21 245 -69 140 31 19 -18 55 47 140 57 26 -18 50 41 126 25 46 -20 6 17 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.60
141 10 54 -18 4 26 14 47 13 21 244 -70 140 57 33 -18 7 11 141 24 22 -18 1 37 126 41 9 -19 26 24 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.61
141 39 57 -17 14 10 14 47 57 20 244 -70 141 26 12 -17 17 11 141 53 50 -17 11 5 126 57 16 -18 46 3 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.62
142 11 49 -16 22 15 14 48 42 19 244 -71 141 57 36 -16 25 34 142 26 12 -16 18 50 127 14 12 -18 5 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.63
142 47 2 -15 28 22 14 49 26 18 243 -71 142 32 13 -15 32 3 143 2 1 -15 24 34 127 31 58 -17 23 50 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.64
143 26 15 -14 32 8 14 50 11 16 243 -72 143 10 43 -14 36 17 143 42 0 -14 27 52 127 50 40 -16 41 52 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.65
144 10 24 -13 33 0 14 50 55 15 243 -72 143 53 56 -13 37 43 144 27 8 -13 28 8 128 10 22 -15 59 17 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.66
145 0 52 -12 30 11 14 51 40 14 242 -73 144 43 11 -12 35 39 145 18 54 -12 24 31 128 31 8 -15 16 2 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.67
145 59 47 -11 22 25 14 52 24 12 242 -73 145 40 23 -11 28 54 146 19 41 -11 15 39 128 53 5 -14 32 2 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.69
147 10 58 -10 7 30 14 53 9 10 241 -73 146 48 56 -10 15 32 147 33 45 - 9 59 1 129 16 19 -13 47 14 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.72
148 42 15 - 8 40 54 14 53 53 8 241 -72 148 15 32 - 8 51 41 149 10 28 - 8 29 16 129 40 58 -13 1 32 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.79
150 57 34 - 6 48 52 14 54 38 5 241 -71 150 18 36 - 7 6 44 151 42 19 - 6 27 40 130 7 11 -12 14 52 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.02
Uncertainty in time = +/- 735 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 31.0
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