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Updated: 2019 JUL 21, 05:34 UT
Event Rank : 80
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Sep 21 UT, the 96.5 km diameter asteroid (733) Mocia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across Australia, from Wyndham across north-eastern Western Australia, south-west Northern Territory and eastern South Australia at low and decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.54 mag to 14.93 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
133 43 51 -38 0 0 19 10 11 10 351 -21 134 17 45 133 9 58 134 53 24 132 34 19 0.13
133 29 53 -37 0 0 19 10 13 11 351 -22 134 3 19 132 56 26 134 38 30 132 21 15 0.13
133 16 3 -36 0 0 19 10 15 12 351 -22 133 49 4 132 43 2 134 23 48 132 8 17 0.14
133 2 22 -35 0 0 19 10 17 13 351 -23 133 34 59 132 29 44 134 9 17 131 55 25 0.14
132 48 48 -34 0 0 19 10 20 15 352 -23 133 21 2 132 16 34 133 54 56 131 42 38 0.14
132 35 21 -33 0 0 19 10 23 16 352 -24 133 7 13 132 3 28 133 40 44 131 29 56 0.14
132 22 0 -32 0 0 19 10 26 17 352 -24 132 53 31 131 50 28 133 26 40 131 17 17 0.14
132 8 43 -31 0 0 19 10 29 18 352 -24 132 39 55 131 37 31 133 12 43 131 4 41 0.14
131 55 32 -30 0 0 19 10 32 19 352 -25 132 26 25 131 24 38 132 58 53 130 52 8 0.14
131 42 24 -29 0 0 19 10 35 20 352 -25 132 12 59 131 11 48 132 45 9 130 39 36 0.14
131 29 19 -28 0 0 19 10 39 21 352 -26 131 59 38 130 59 0 132 31 30 130 27 6 0.14
131 16 17 -27 0 0 19 10 43 22 352 -26 131 46 19 130 46 14 132 17 54 130 14 36 0.14
131 3 17 -26 0 0 19 10 47 23 352 -27 131 33 4 130 33 28 132 4 23 130 2 7 0.14
130 50 18 -25 0 0 19 10 51 24 353 -27 131 19 51 130 20 44 131 50 55 129 49 37 0.14
130 37 20 -24 0 0 19 10 56 25 353 -27 131 6 40 130 8 0 131 37 29 129 37 7 0.14
130 24 23 -23 0 0 19 11 0 26 353 -28 130 53 29 129 55 15 131 24 6 129 24 36 0.14
130 11 25 -22 0 0 19 11 5 27 353 -28 130 40 20 129 42 29 131 10 44 129 12 3 0.14
129 58 27 -21 0 0 19 11 10 28 353 -29 130 27 11 129 29 43 130 57 22 128 59 28 0.14
129 45 28 -20 0 0 19 11 15 29 353 -29 130 14 1 129 16 54 130 44 1 128 46 51 0.14
129 32 28 -19 0 0 19 11 20 30 353 -29 130 0 51 129 4 4 130 30 41 128 34 11 0.14
129 19 26 -18 0 0 19 11 25 31 353 -30 129 47 39 128 51 11 130 17 19 128 21 28 0.14
129 6 21 -17 0 0 19 11 31 32 353 -30 129 34 26 128 38 15 130 3 57 128 8 41 0.14
128 53 14 -16 0 0 19 11 37 33 354 -30 129 21 11 128 25 16 129 50 33 127 55 50 0.14
128 40 4 -15 0 0 19 11 43 34 354 -31 129 7 53 128 12 13 129 37 8 127 42 55 0.14
128 26 50 -14 0 0 19 11 49 35 354 -31 128 54 33 127 59 7 129 23 40 127 29 55 0.14
128 13 33 -13 0 0 19 11 55 36 354 -31 128 41 9 127 45 55 129 10 9 127 16 51 0.14
128 0 11 -12 0 0 19 12 1 37 354 -32 128 27 41 127 32 39 128 56 35 127 3 41 0.14
127 46 44 -11 0 0 19 12 8 38 354 -32 128 14 9 127 19 18 128 42 58 126 50 25 0.14
127 33 13 -10 0 0 19 12 14 39 354 -32 128 0 33 127 5 51 128 29 17 126 37 2 0.14
127 19 36 - 9 0 0 19 12 21 40 354 -33 127 46 52 126 52 18 128 15 32 126 23 34 0.14
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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