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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 04:59 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 18 UT, the 131 km diameter asteroid (471) Papagena will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a wide path across New Zealand, passing over Whangarei, New Plymouth and Christchurch.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.04 mag to 11.74 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 67.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-304-137135 by 471 Papagena on 2019 Aug 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 41 46 -34 10 46 11 43 5 47 262 -66 174 40 8 -34 4 47 172 44 1 -34 16 12 174 57 28 -34 2 54 172 27 8 -34 17 42 0.92
173 37 16 -34 48 40 11 43 41 47 262 -66 174 36 4 -34 42 38 172 39 6 -34 54 8 174 53 31 -34 40 45 172 22 5 -34 55 39 0.92
173 33 20 -35 26 31 11 44 18 47 263 -65 174 32 34 -35 20 26 172 34 44 -35 32 1 174 50 9 -35 18 32 172 17 35 -35 33 33 0.92
173 29 58 -36 4 17 11 44 54 47 263 -65 174 29 40 -35 58 10 172 30 54 -36 9 51 174 47 23 -35 56 15 172 13 37 -36 11 23 0.93
173 27 11 -36 42 1 11 45 30 47 264 -64 174 27 22 -36 35 50 172 27 39 -36 47 38 174 45 14 -36 33 54 172 10 13 -36 49 11 0.93
173 25 1 -37 19 42 11 46 6 47 265 -64 174 25 41 -37 13 27 172 24 58 -37 25 22 174 43 42 -37 11 30 172 7 24 -37 26 56 0.94
173 23 27 -37 57 19 11 46 42 47 265 -63 174 24 39 -37 51 0 172 22 54 -38 3 3 174 42 49 -37 49 2 172 5 11 -38 4 38 0.94
173 22 32 -38 34 54 11 47 18 46 266 -63 174 24 17 -38 28 30 172 21 27 -38 40 42 174 42 36 -38 26 31 172 3 34 -38 42 19 0.95
173 22 17 -39 12 26 11 47 54 46 266 -62 174 24 36 -39 5 58 172 20 38 -39 18 19 174 43 5 -39 3 56 172 2 35 -39 19 57 0.95
173 22 43 -39 49 56 11 48 31 46 267 -62 174 25 37 -39 43 22 172 20 29 -39 55 54 174 44 17 -39 41 18 172 2 16 -39 57 33 -0.95
173 23 52 -40 27 23 11 49 7 46 267 -61 174 27 22 -40 20 43 172 21 1 -40 33 27 174 46 13 -40 18 38 172 2 37 -40 35 7 -0.96
173 25 44 -41 4 48 11 49 43 46 268 -61 174 29 53 -40 58 1 172 22 15 -41 10 58 174 48 55 -40 55 54 172 3 40 -41 12 40 -0.96
173 28 22 -41 42 10 11 50 19 46 269 -60 174 33 11 -41 35 17 172 24 14 -41 48 27 174 52 24 -41 33 8 172 5 28 -41 50 11 -0.97
173 31 48 -42 19 31 11 50 55 46 269 -60 174 37 18 -42 12 30 172 26 59 -42 25 54 174 56 43 -42 10 18 172 8 0 -42 27 40 -0.97
173 36 3 -42 56 49 11 51 31 46 270 -59 174 42 15 -42 49 40 172 30 31 -43 3 20 175 1 54 -42 47 26 172 11 20 -43 5 8 -0.97
173 41 10 -43 34 5 11 52 7 45 270 -59 174 48 7 -43 26 47 172 34 54 -43 40 44 175 7 58 -43 24 31 172 15 30 -43 42 34 -0.98
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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