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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 04:58 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 17 UT, the 33 km diameter asteroid (13244) Dannymeyer will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a significantly uncertain path across West Australia and Northern Territory, passing over Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.12 mag to 17.22 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6804-1844-1 by 13244 Dannymeyer on 2019 Aug 17
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
114 48 0 -37 17 46 14 20 59 52 270 -53 114 34 38 -37 14 32 115 1 25 -37 20 57 113 28 8 -36 57 56 116 9 51 -37 36 40 0.73
115 8 49 -36 40 10 14 21 6 51 269 -54 114 55 32 -36 36 59 115 22 10 -36 43 19 113 49 23 -36 20 36 116 30 14 -36 58 49 0.73
115 29 47 -36 2 30 14 21 14 51 268 -55 115 16 34 -35 59 22 115 43 4 -36 5 37 114 10 45 -35 43 11 116 50 46 -36 20 54 0.73
115 50 53 -35 24 45 14 21 21 51 267 -55 115 37 44 -35 21 39 116 4 6 -35 27 49 114 32 14 -35 5 41 117 11 29 -35 42 53 0.73
116 12 9 -34 46 54 14 21 29 50 266 -56 115 59 4 -34 43 51 116 25 18 -34 49 55 114 53 52 -34 28 5 117 32 22 -35 4 46 0.73
116 33 36 -34 8 56 14 21 36 50 265 -56 116 20 33 -34 5 56 116 46 41 -34 11 55 115 15 39 -33 50 24 117 53 27 -34 26 33 0.73
116 55 13 -33 30 52 14 21 44 50 265 -57 116 42 14 -33 27 54 117 8 15 -33 33 49 115 37 35 -33 12 35 118 14 45 -33 48 13 0.73
117 17 2 -32 52 41 14 21 51 49 264 -58 117 4 6 -32 49 46 117 30 1 -32 55 35 115 59 42 -32 34 39 118 36 15 -33 9 46 0.73
117 39 4 -32 14 22 14 21 59 49 263 -58 117 26 10 -32 11 29 117 52 0 -32 17 13 116 22 0 -31 56 36 118 58 0 -32 31 11 0.73
118 1 19 -31 35 55 14 22 6 48 262 -59 117 48 28 -31 33 4 118 14 12 -31 38 43 116 44 30 -31 18 24 119 19 59 -31 52 27 0.73
118 23 48 -30 57 18 14 22 14 48 261 -60 118 10 59 -30 54 31 118 36 39 -31 0 4 117 7 13 -30 40 4 119 42 14 -31 13 34 0.74
118 46 32 -30 18 32 14 22 21 47 260 -60 118 33 46 -30 15 48 118 59 22 -30 21 15 117 30 10 -30 1 34 120 4 46 -30 34 32 0.74
119 9 33 -29 39 36 14 22 29 47 259 -61 118 56 48 -29 36 54 119 22 21 -29 42 16 117 53 22 -29 22 55 120 27 36 -29 55 18 0.74
119 32 51 -29 0 29 14 22 36 47 258 -61 119 20 8 -28 57 50 119 45 37 -29 3 6 118 16 50 -28 44 4 120 50 44 -29 15 54 0.74
119 56 27 -28 21 10 14 22 43 46 258 -62 119 43 46 -28 18 34 120 9 12 -28 23 45 118 40 35 -28 5 3 121 14 12 -28 36 17 0.74
120 20 23 -27 41 39 14 22 51 46 257 -63 120 7 42 -27 39 6 120 33 6 -27 44 11 119 4 37 -27 25 49 121 38 1 -27 56 28 0.74
120 44 39 -27 1 55 14 22 58 45 256 -63 120 31 59 -26 59 25 120 57 21 -27 4 24 119 28 59 -26 46 23 122 2 12 -27 16 25 0.74
121 9 17 -26 21 57 14 23 6 44 255 -64 120 56 38 -26 19 30 121 21 59 -26 24 22 119 53 41 -26 6 43 122 26 46 -26 36 8 0.74
121 34 18 -25 41 44 14 23 13 44 255 -65 121 21 40 -25 39 20 121 47 0 -25 44 6 120 18 45 -25 26 48 122 51 46 -25 55 36 0.74
121 59 44 -25 1 15 14 23 21 43 254 -65 121 47 6 -24 58 54 122 12 26 -25 3 34 120 44 11 -24 46 39 123 17 13 -25 14 47 0.74
122 25 36 -24 20 29 14 23 28 43 253 -66 122 12 58 -24 18 12 122 38 18 -24 22 45 121 10 2 -24 6 13 123 43 7 -24 33 40 0.74
122 51 57 -23 39 26 14 23 36 42 253 -67 122 39 17 -23 37 12 123 4 39 -23 41 38 121 36 20 -23 25 29 124 9 31 -23 52 15 0.75
123 18 46 -22 58 3 14 23 43 41 252 -67 123 6 6 -22 55 53 123 31 30 -23 0 12 122 3 5 -22 44 28 124 36 28 -23 10 30 0.75
123 46 8 -22 16 20 14 23 51 41 251 -68 123 33 27 -22 14 13 123 58 53 -22 18 25 122 30 19 -22 3 7 125 3 58 -22 28 23 0.75
124 14 4 -21 34 15 14 23 58 40 251 -69 124 1 20 -21 32 13 124 26 50 -21 36 16 122 58 6 -21 21 25 125 32 5 -21 45 55 0.75
124 42 35 -20 51 48 14 24 6 40 250 -69 124 29 50 -20 49 49 124 55 24 -20 53 45 123 26 26 -20 39 21 126 0 51 -21 3 1 0.75
125 11 46 -20 8 55 14 24 13 39 250 -70 124 58 58 -20 7 1 125 24 37 -20 10 48 123 55 22 -19 56 53 126 30 18 -20 19 42 0.75
125 41 38 -19 25 37 14 24 21 38 249 -71 125 28 47 -19 23 46 125 54 32 -19 27 25 124 24 57 -19 14 0 127 0 30 -19 35 56 0.75
126 12 14 -18 41 50 14 24 28 37 248 -71 125 59 20 -18 40 4 126 25 12 -18 43 33 124 55 14 -18 30 40 127 31 29 -18 51 39 0.75
126 43 39 -17 57 32 14 24 35 37 248 -72 126 30 40 -17 55 51 126 56 41 -17 59 10 125 26 15 -17 46 52 128 3 21 -18 6 50 0.75
127 15 55 -17 12 42 14 24 43 36 247 -73 127 2 52 -17 11 7 127 29 2 -17 14 15 125 58 5 -17 2 32 128 36 8 -17 21 27 0.75
127 49 7 -16 27 16 14 24 50 35 247 -73 127 35 59 -16 25 47 128 2 20 -16 28 44 126 30 46 -16 17 39 129 9 56 -16 35 25 0.76
128 23 20 -15 41 13 14 24 58 34 246 -74 128 10 5 -15 39 49 128 36 39 -15 42 34 127 4 24 -15 32 10 129 44 50 -15 48 44 0.76
128 58 39 -14 54 28 14 25 5 33 246 -75 128 45 18 -14 53 10 129 12 5 -14 55 43 127 39 3 -14 46 2 130 20 56 -15 1 18 0.76
129 35 11 -14 6 58 14 25 13 32 245 -75 129 21 41 -14 5 47 129 48 45 -14 8 6 128 14 48 -13 59 12 130 58 21 -14 13 3 0.76
130 13 2 -13 18 39 14 25 20 31 245 -76 129 59 23 -13 17 36 130 26 46 -13 19 39 128 51 47 -13 11 36 131 37 13 -13 23 56 0.76
130 52 20 -12 29 26 14 25 28 31 245 -76 130 38 30 -12 28 31 131 6 15 -12 30 17 129 30 5 -12 23 10 132 17 42 -12 33 49 0.76
131 33 16 -11 39 13 14 25 35 30 244 -77 131 19 14 -11 38 27 131 47 23 -11 39 56 130 9 52 -11 33 50 132 59 58 -11 42 38 0.76
132 15 59 -10 47 55 14 25 43 29 244 -78 132 1 44 -10 47 19 132 30 21 -10 48 27 130 51 17 -10 43 28 133 44 15 -10 50 14 0.77
Uncertainty in time = +/- 13 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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