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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 04:57 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 14 UT, the 65 km diameter asteroid (675) Ludmilla will occult a 8.6 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path across eastern New Zealand, passing over Christchurch and Wellington.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.78 mag to 12.35 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1776-01388-1 by 675 Ludmilla on 2019 Aug 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
168 28 32 -47 0 0 16 25 14 14 21 -35 169 15 54 167 41 26 169 36 27 167 21 9 1.02
169 33 16 -46 0 0 16 25 17 15 21 -35 170 20 6 168 46 41 170 40 27 168 26 37 1.02
170 38 10 -45 0 0 16 25 20 16 20 -34 171 24 33 169 52 3 171 44 41 169 32 11 1.03
171 43 19 -44 0 0 16 25 23 17 19 -34 172 29 18 170 57 36 172 49 16 170 37 56 1.03
172 48 48 -43 0 0 16 25 27 18 18 -33 173 34 26 172 3 27 173 54 15 171 43 56 1.03
173 54 42 -42 0 0 16 25 31 20 17 -32 174 40 2 173 9 40 174 59 44 172 50 17 1.04
175 1 7 -41 0 0 16 25 35 21 16 -32 175 46 13 174 16 20 176 5 48 173 57 4 1.04
176 8 8 -40 0 0 16 25 40 22 15 -31 176 53 2 175 23 33 177 12 33 175 4 23 1.04
177 15 49 -39 0 0 16 25 45 23 14 -30 178 0 35 176 31 24 178 20 3 176 12 18 1.05
178 24 18 -38 0 0 16 25 50 24 13 -29 179 8 59 177 39 58 179 28 25 177 20 55 1.05
179 33 39 -37 0 0 16 25 56 26 12 -28 -179 41 41 178 49 22 -179 22 15 178 30 20 1.05
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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