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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 04:55 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 11 UT, the 84 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a path across western West Australia, passing over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.34 mag to 11.69 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 48.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-469-065989 by 914 Palisana on 2019 Aug 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
114 54 33 -36 53 20 11 35 53 45 30 -23 114 25 28 -36 50 12 115 23 34 -36 56 30 114 7 51 -36 48 19 115 41 6 -36 58 25 -0.34
115 6 12 -35 54 52 11 36 40 46 30 -23 114 37 31 -35 51 45 115 34 50 -35 58 0 114 20 8 -35 49 53 115 52 8 -35 59 54 -0.34
115 16 40 -34 57 13 11 37 28 47 30 -23 114 48 21 -34 54 8 115 44 56 -35 0 19 114 31 12 -34 52 17 116 2 1 -35 2 13 -0.34
115 26 3 -34 0 21 11 38 15 48 30 -24 114 58 5 -33 57 17 115 53 59 -34 3 26 114 41 8 -33 55 27 116 10 51 -34 5 18 -0.34
115 34 26 -33 4 12 11 39 2 49 30 -24 115 6 47 -33 1 10 116 2 3 -33 7 15 114 50 2 -32 59 20 116 18 43 -33 9 7 -0.34
115 41 54 -32 8 44 11 39 50 50 30 -24 115 14 33 -32 5 43 116 9 13 -32 11 47 114 57 59 -32 3 54 116 25 42 -32 13 37 -0.34
115 48 32 -31 13 56 11 40 37 51 30 -24 115 21 28 -31 10 56 116 15 33 -31 16 57 115 5 4 -31 9 8 116 31 52 -31 18 47 -0.33
115 54 22 -30 19 44 11 41 25 52 30 -25 115 27 34 -30 16 45 116 21 7 -30 22 43 115 11 20 -30 14 57 116 37 16 -30 24 33 -0.33
115 59 28 -29 26 6 11 42 12 53 30 -25 115 32 56 -29 23 9 116 25 58 -29 29 5 115 16 51 -29 21 22 116 41 58 -29 30 53 -0.33
116 3 54 -28 33 2 11 42 59 54 31 -25 115 37 36 -28 30 5 116 30 10 -28 35 59 115 21 40 -28 28 19 116 46 1 -28 37 47 -0.33
116 7 42 -27 40 28 11 43 47 54 31 -25 115 41 38 -27 37 32 116 33 44 -27 43 25 115 25 50 -27 35 47 116 49 28 -27 45 12 -0.33
116 10 55 -26 48 24 11 44 34 55 31 -25 115 45 4 -26 45 29 116 36 44 -26 51 19 115 29 24 -26 43 44 116 52 20 -26 53 6 -0.32
116 13 35 -25 56 48 11 45 22 56 31 -25 115 47 55 -25 53 54 116 39 12 -25 59 42 115 32 23 -25 52 9 116 54 40 -26 1 28 -0.32
116 15 44 -25 5 38 11 46 9 57 32 -26 115 50 16 -25 2 45 116 41 9 -25 8 32 115 34 51 -25 1 1 116 56 31 -25 10 17 -0.32
116 17 23 -24 14 53 11 46 56 58 32 -26 115 52 6 -24 12 1 116 42 38 -24 17 46 115 36 48 -24 10 17 116 57 53 -24 19 31 -0.32
116 18 36 -23 24 32 11 47 44 59 32 -26 115 53 29 -23 21 41 116 43 40 -23 27 25 115 38 17 -23 19 58 116 58 49 -23 29 9 -0.31
116 19 22 -22 34 34 11 48 31 59 33 -26 115 54 26 -22 31 44 116 44 17 -22 37 26 115 39 19 -22 30 1 116 59 20 -22 39 10 -0.31
116 19 45 -21 44 58 11 49 19 60 33 -26 115 54 57 -21 42 8 116 44 30 -21 47 49 115 39 56 -21 40 25 116 59 28 -21 49 33 -0.31
116 19 44 -20 55 42 11 50 6 61 34 -26 115 55 5 -20 52 52 116 44 21 -20 58 32 115 40 10 -20 51 10 116 59 13 -21 0 16 0.31
116 19 22 -20 6 45 11 50 53 62 34 -26 115 54 51 -20 3 56 116 43 50 -20 9 35 115 40 1 -20 2 14 116 58 37 -20 11 18 0.30
116 18 39 -19 18 7 11 51 41 63 35 -26 115 54 16 -19 15 19 116 43 0 -19 20 56 115 39 31 -19 13 37 116 57 42 -19 22 39 0.30
116 17 37 -18 29 47 11 52 28 63 35 -26 115 53 21 -18 26 59 116 41 50 -18 32 36 115 38 40 -18 25 18 116 56 28 -18 34 18 0.30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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