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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 04:52 UT
Event Rank : 50
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 03 UT, the 78 km diameter asteroid (5254) Ulysses will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Microscopium for observers along a somewhat uncertain path that may cross south-eastern Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.22 mag to 16.48 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7972-01134-1 by 5254 Ulysses on 2019 Aug 3
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
156 55 43 -31 51 59 19 3 41 27 236 -16 157 37 40 -31 46 0 156 14 23 -31 57 20 159 38 38 -31 25 34 154 21 53 -32 9 13 0.78
156 13 44 -32 48 24 19 3 45 28 237 -17 156 55 19 -32 43 7 155 32 45 -32 53 5 158 54 58 -32 24 55 153 41 2 -33 3 16 0.78
155 33 13 -33 43 19 19 3 49 29 237 -18 156 14 30 -33 38 41 154 52 30 -33 47 24 158 13 7 -33 22 29 153 1 23 -33 56 2 0.78
154 53 59 -34 36 55 19 3 54 30 238 -18 155 35 3 -34 32 51 154 13 28 -34 40 26 157 32 52 -34 18 27 152 22 48 -34 47 40 0.78
154 15 55 -35 29 18 19 3 58 31 239 -19 154 56 48 -35 25 46 153 35 32 -35 32 19 156 54 1 -35 13 0 151 45 10 -35 38 14 0.78
153 38 52 -36 20 36 19 4 2 32 239 -20 154 19 39 -36 17 33 152 58 35 -36 23 9 156 16 26 -36 6 17 151 8 24 -36 27 51 0.78
153 2 46 -37 10 53 19 4 6 32 240 -20 153 43 28 -37 8 18 152 22 32 -37 13 1 155 39 59 -36 58 24 150 32 25 -37 16 35 0.78
152 27 29 -38 0 16 19 4 10 33 241 -21 153 8 11 -37 58 6 151 47 16 -38 1 59 155 4 32 -37 49 29 149 57 7 -38 4 30 0.78
151 52 59 -38 48 49 19 4 15 34 241 -21 152 33 41 -38 47 2 151 12 44 -38 50 9 154 30 1 -38 39 36 149 22 28 -38 51 40 0.78
151 19 10 -39 36 35 19 4 19 35 242 -22 151 59 55 -39 35 10 150 38 52 -39 37 33 153 56 20 -39 28 51 148 48 24 -39 38 8 0.79
150 45 59 -40 23 37 19 4 23 36 243 -22 151 26 49 -40 22 34 150 5 35 -40 24 16 153 23 25 -40 17 17 148 14 51 -40 23 57 0.79
150 13 22 -41 10 0 19 4 27 36 243 -23 150 54 19 -41 9 16 149 32 52 -41 10 19 152 51 12 -41 4 58 147 41 46 -41 9 9 0.79
149 41 17 -41 55 45 19 4 32 37 244 -23 150 22 22 -41 55 20 149 0 38 -41 55 46 152 19 37 -41 51 58 147 9 7 -41 53 48 0.79
149 9 41 -42 40 56 19 4 36 38 245 -23 149 50 56 -42 40 49 148 28 51 -42 40 39 151 48 37 -42 38 19 146 36 51 -42 37 54 0.79
148 38 30 -43 25 34 19 4 40 38 246 -24 149 19 57 -43 25 44 147 57 29 -43 25 1 151 18 10 -43 24 4 146 4 56 -43 21 31 0.79
148 7 43 -44 9 42 19 4 44 39 246 -24 148 49 23 -44 10 9 147 26 29 -44 8 53 150 48 12 -44 9 17 145 33 19 -44 4 39 0.79
147 37 18 -44 53 21 19 4 49 39 247 -25 148 19 12 -44 54 4 146 55 49 -44 52 16 150 18 42 -44 53 58 145 1 59 -44 47 21 0.79
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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