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Updated: 2019 JAN 17, 04:27 UT
Event Rank : 62
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Jul 12 UT, the 38.9 km diameter asteroid (458) Hercynia will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Milton to Queenstown, and into south-eastern New South Wales, possibly including Canberra, but at very low elevation .
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.76 mag to 14.33 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 6 13 -33 38 18 12 47 11 3 98 -61 142 46 20 -33 49 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 145 46 3 -33 55 34 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
143 28 40 -34 23 32 12 47 18 6 96 -64 145 9 2 -34 26 31 141 15 18 -34 15 48 147 31 13 -34 26 36 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.43
145 37 53 -34 58 14 12 47 25 8 95 -65 146 58 20 -34 58 17 144 3 47 -34 56 13 149 0 44 -34 55 24 139 50 26 -34 40 16 1.67
147 20 40 -35 29 8 12 47 32 9 94 -66 148 30 15 -35 27 33 146 2 59 -35 29 33 150 19 59 -35 22 44 143 10 46 -35 25 25 1.75
148 48 33 -35 57 54 12 47 39 10 93 -67 149 51 4 -35 55 14 147 40 25 -35 59 45 151 31 48 -35 49 1 145 18 57 -36 0 10 1.79
150 6 31 -36 25 15 12 47 46 11 92 -68 151 4 0 -36 21 48 149 4 49 -36 28 6 152 37 57 -36 14 30 147 0 56 -36 31 10 1.81
151 17 18 -36 51 36 12 47 53 12 91 -68 152 10 58 -36 47 33 150 20 16 -36 55 11 153 39 36 -36 39 22 148 28 8 -37 0 4 1.83
152 22 34 -37 17 11 12 48 1 13 90 -69 153 13 13 -37 12 38 151 29 7 -37 21 20 154 37 32 -37 3 44 149 45 30 -37 27 33 1.84
153 23 25 -37 42 9 12 48 8 14 89 -69 154 11 38 -37 37 11 152 32 49 -37 46 47 155 32 23 -37 27 40 150 55 43 -37 54 3 1.85
154 20 39 -38 6 38 12 48 15 15 89 -69 155 6 50 -38 1 19 153 32 22 -38 11 40 156 24 35 -37 51 16 152 0 26 -38 19 47 1.86
155 14 50 -38 30 42 12 48 22 16 88 -69 155 59 19 -38 25 5 154 28 30 -38 36 5 157 14 29 -38 14 33 153 0 47 -38 44 55 1.86
156 6 25 -38 54 26 12 48 29 16 87 -70 156 49 26 -38 48 33 155 21 43 -39 0 7 158 2 22 -38 37 35 153 57 32 -39 9 35 1.86
156 55 44 -39 17 53 12 48 36 17 87 -70 157 37 30 -39 11 45 156 12 28 -39 23 49 158 48 29 -39 0 24 154 51 14 -39 33 50 1.87
157 43 5 -39 41 5 12 48 43 17 86 -70 158 23 45 -39 34 43 157 1 2 -39 47 15 159 33 1 -39 23 1 155 42 22 -39 57 45 1.87
158 28 41 -40 4 4 12 48 50 18 85 -70 159 8 23 -39 57 30 157 47 42 -40 10 28 160 16 8 -39 45 28 156 31 15 -40 21 23 1.87
159 12 42 -40 26 52 12 48 57 19 85 -70 159 51 33 -40 20 7 158 32 40 -40 33 27 160 57 57 -40 7 47 157 18 9 -40 44 47 1.87
159 55 20 -40 49 30 12 49 4 19 84 -70 160 33 24 -40 42 35 159 16 7 -40 56 17 161 38 36 -40 29 57 158 3 18 -41 7 58 1.88
160 36 40 -41 12 0 12 49 11 20 84 -69 161 14 4 -41 4 55 159 58 13 -41 18 57 162 18 10 -40 52 1 158 46 54 -41 30 59 1.88
161 16 51 -41 34 22 12 49 19 20 83 -69 161 53 38 -41 27 8 160 39 4 -41 41 30 162 56 46 -41 13 59 159 29 6 -41 53 50 1.88
161 55 59 -41 56 39 12 49 26 21 82 -69 162 32 12 -41 49 16 161 18 47 -42 3 55 163 34 27 -41 35 52 160 10 1 -42 16 33 1.88
162 34 7 -42 18 49 12 49 33 21 82 -69 163 9 51 -42 11 18 161 57 28 -42 26 14 164 11 18 -41 57 41 160 49 47 -42 39 9 1.88
163 11 22 -42 40 55 12 49 40 21 81 -69 163 46 39 -42 33 16 162 35 12 -42 48 29 164 47 22 -42 19 25 161 28 28 -43 1 39 1.88
163 47 47 -43 2 57 12 49 47 22 81 -68 164 22 39 -42 55 10 163 12 3 -43 10 38 165 22 43 -42 41 6 162 6 12 -43 24 4 1.88
164 23 26 -43 24 55 12 49 54 22 80 -68 164 57 56 -43 17 1 163 48 6 -43 32 44 165 57 24 -43 2 44 162 43 1 -43 46 24 1.88
164 58 21 -43 46 50 12 50 1 23 79 -68 165 32 32 -43 38 49 164 23 23 -43 54 47 166 31 27 -43 24 20 163 19 1 -44 8 41 1.88
165 32 37 -44 8 43 12 50 8 23 79 -68 166 6 29 -44 0 35 164 57 58 -44 16 47 167 4 55 -43 45 54 163 54 14 -44 30 55 1.88
166 6 14 -44 30 34 12 50 15 23 78 -67 166 39 50 -44 22 19 165 31 53 -44 38 45 167 37 49 -44 7 27 164 28 43 -44 53 5 1.88
166 39 17 -44 52 23 12 50 22 24 78 -67 167 12 38 -44 44 1 166 5 11 -45 0 41 168 10 13 -44 28 58 165 2 33 -45 15 14 1.88
167 11 47 -45 14 11 12 50 29 24 77 -67 167 44 54 -45 5 43 166 37 55 -45 22 35 168 42 8 -44 50 29 165 35 44 -45 37 21 1.88
167 43 45 -45 35 58 12 50 37 24 76 -66 168 16 41 -45 27 24 167 10 6 -45 44 29 169 13 35 -45 11 59 166 8 20 -45 59 27 1.88
168 15 14 -45 57 45 12 50 44 24 76 -66 168 47 59 -45 49 4 167 41 47 -46 6 22 169 44 36 -45 33 28 166 40 23 -46 21 32 1.88
168 46 16 -46 19 32 12 50 51 25 75 -66 169 18 51 -46 10 45 168 12 58 -46 28 16 170 15 13 -45 54 58 167 11 54 -46 43 37 1.88
169 16 52 -46 41 19 12 50 58 25 75 -65 169 49 19 -46 32 26 168 43 43 -46 50 9 170 45 26 -46 16 29 167 42 56 -47 5 42 1.88
169 47 3 -47 3 6 12 51 5 25 74 -65 170 19 23 -46 54 7 169 14 2 -47 12 2 171 15 18 -46 38 0 168 13 30 -47 27 47 1.88
170 16 51 -47 24 55 12 51 12 26 73 -64 170 49 4 -47 15 49 169 43 56 -47 33 57 171 44 50 -46 59 32 168 43 38 -47 49 52 1.88
170 46 16 -47 46 44 12 51 19 26 73 -64 171 18 25 -47 37 33 170 13 28 -47 55 52 172 14 2 -47 21 5 169 13 20 -48 11 59 1.88
171 15 21 -48 8 35 12 51 26 26 72 -64 171 47 25 -47 59 18 170 42 38 -48 17 49 172 42 55 -47 42 40 169 42 39 -48 34 7 1.88
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 45 21 19 -84 28 31 ... .. .. .. .. .. 35 22 36 -87 59 55 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 37 52 43 -85 20 28 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 17.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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