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Updated: 2019 APR 15, 17:42 UT
Event Rank : 30
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 May 16 UT, the 20.6 km diameter asteroid (2081) Sazava will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow path of significant uncertainty across eastern Australiua, from Eden across south-eastern to north-western New South Wales and western Queensland, passing near Mt Isa. The one sigma limit includes Canberra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.06 mag to 15.25 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
136 6 36 -10 0 0 17 35 26 73 151 -49 136 0 36 136 12 36 135 23 41 136 49 32 0.05
136 28 37 -11 0 0 17 36 24 74 151 -49 136 22 35 136 34 38 135 45 32 137 11 42 0.04
136 50 50 -12 0 0 17 37 23 75 151 -49 136 44 47 136 56 52 136 7 35 137 34 6 0.04
137 13 17 -13 0 0 17 38 22 77 151 -49 137 7 12 137 19 21 136 29 50 137 56 45 0.04
137 36 0 -14 0 0 17 39 22 78 151 -48 137 29 54 137 42 7 136 52 21 138 19 42 0.03
137 59 2 -15 0 0 17 40 22 79 152 -48 137 52 54 138 5 11 137 15 8 138 42 59 0.03
138 22 25 -16 0 0 17 41 22 80 152 -47 138 16 15 138 28 36 137 38 16 139 6 38 0.02
138 46 12 -17 0 0 17 42 23 81 152 -47 138 39 59 138 52 25 138 1 45 139 30 42 0.02
139 10 24 -18 0 0 17 43 24 82 153 -47 139 4 8 139 16 40 138 25 38 139 55 14 0.01
139 35 5 -19 0 0 17 44 25 83 153 -46 139 28 46 139 41 23 138 49 58 140 20 16 0.01
140 0 16 -20 0 0 17 45 27 85 154 -46 139 53 55 140 6 38 139 14 48 140 45 50 0.01
140 26 2 -21 0 0 17 46 29 86 156 -45 140 19 37 140 32 27 139 40 10 141 12 0 0.00
140 52 25 -22 0 0 17 47 31 87 160 -45 140 45 56 140 58 54 140 6 8 141 38 49 0.00
141 19 28 -23 0 0 17 48 33 87 169 -44 141 12 56 141 26 1 140 32 44 142 6 21 -0.01
141 47 15 -24 0 0 17 49 36 88 204 -43 141 40 39 141 53 52 141 0 1 142 34 38 -0.03
142 15 50 -25 0 0 17 50 39 88 286 -43 142 9 8 142 22 31 141 28 4 143 3 45 -0.03
142 45 15 -26 0 0 17 51 42 87 307 -42 142 38 29 142 52 2 141 56 55 143 33 46 -0.02
143 15 36 -27 0 0 17 52 46 86 314 -41 143 8 45 143 22 27 142 26 40 144 4 44 -0.03
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
144 0 0 -28 24 26 17 54 15 85 317 -41 -28 37 24 -28 11 26 -29 56 37 -26 50 58 -0.03
145 0 0 -30 12 23 17 56 10 82 319 -39 -30 24 53 -29 59 52 -31 41 12 -28 42 21 -0.04
146 0 0 -31 53 39 17 57 59 80 319 -38 -32 5 41 -31 41 35 -33 19 16 -30 26 53 -0.04
147 0 0 -33 28 37 17 59 41 78 319 -37 -33 40 13 -33 16 58 -34 51 13 -32 4 56 -0.05
148 0 0 -34 57 42 18 1 17 77 319 -36 -35 8 55 -34 46 28 -36 17 30 -33 36 55 -0.05
149 0 0 -36 21 20 18 2 48 75 318 -35 -36 32 11 -36 10 29 -37 38 30 -35 3 15 -0.05
150 0 0 -37 39 54 18 4 14 73 318 -33 -37 50 24 -37 29 23 -38 54 38 -36 24 21 -0.06
151 0 0 -38 53 47 18 5 35 72 317 -32 -39 3 57 -38 43 35 -40 6 13 -37 40 34 -0.06
Uncertainty in time = +/- 36 secs
Prediction of 2019 Apr 15.0
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