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Updated: 2019 APR 15, 17:38 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 May 12 UT, the 116.9 km diameter asteroid (405) Thia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across Australia from the head of Great Australian Bight across western South Australia and The Northern Territory to Kununarra in northern Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.21 mag to 10.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 59 10 -38 23 57 12 10 9 70 42 -46 131 17 52 -38 26 17 132 40 19 -38 21 27 130 58 24 -38 27 19 132 59 37 -38 20 14 0.25
131 55 9 -37 37 58 12 10 21 71 43 -47 131 14 18 -37 40 18 132 35 53 -37 35 30 130 55 3 -37 41 20 132 54 59 -37 34 16 0.25
131 51 0 -36 52 9 12 10 33 72 45 -47 131 10 33 -36 54 28 132 31 18 -36 49 41 130 51 30 -36 55 29 132 50 13 -36 48 28 0.25
131 46 41 -36 6 28 12 10 45 72 47 -47 131 6 38 -36 8 46 132 26 36 -36 4 0 130 47 46 -36 9 47 132 45 19 -36 2 48 0.25
131 42 13 -35 20 54 12 10 57 73 48 -47 131 2 34 -35 23 11 132 21 45 -35 18 28 130 43 53 -35 24 13 132 40 18 -35 17 16 0.25
131 37 37 -34 35 28 12 11 10 73 50 -47 130 58 20 -34 37 45 132 16 47 -34 33 2 130 39 49 -34 38 46 132 35 9 -34 31 51 0.25
131 32 53 -33 50 8 12 11 22 73 52 -47 130 53 57 -33 52 24 132 11 42 -33 47 43 130 35 36 -33 53 25 132 29 54 -33 46 32 0.25
131 28 0 -33 4 55 12 11 34 74 55 -47 130 49 24 -33 7 10 132 6 29 -33 2 31 130 31 13 -33 8 11 132 24 32 -33 1 20 0.25
131 23 0 -32 19 47 12 11 46 74 57 -47 130 44 44 -32 22 2 132 1 9 -32 17 24 130 26 42 -32 23 2 132 19 3 -32 16 13 0.25
131 17 52 -31 34 45 12 11 58 75 59 -47 130 39 54 -31 36 58 131 55 42 -31 32 22 130 22 1 -31 37 58 132 13 27 -31 31 12 0.25
131 12 36 -30 49 47 12 12 10 75 62 -48 130 34 57 -30 52 0 131 50 9 -30 47 25 130 17 12 -30 52 59 132 7 45 -30 46 15 0.25
131 7 13 -30 4 53 12 12 22 75 64 -48 130 29 51 -30 7 5 131 44 28 -30 2 32 130 12 15 -30 8 5 132 1 57 -30 1 23 0.25
131 1 43 -29 20 3 12 12 34 76 67 -48 130 24 37 -29 22 14 131 38 42 -29 17 43 130 7 9 -29 23 13 131 56 2 -29 16 34 0.25
130 56 5 -28 35 16 12 12 46 76 70 -48 130 19 16 -28 37 27 131 32 48 -28 32 56 130 1 55 -28 38 25 131 50 2 -28 31 48 0.24
130 50 21 -27 50 32 12 12 58 76 73 -48 130 13 47 -27 52 42 131 26 49 -27 48 13 129 56 34 -27 53 40 131 43 55 -27 47 5 0.24
130 44 30 -27 5 50 12 13 10 76 76 -48 130 8 11 -27 7 59 131 20 43 -27 3 32 129 51 4 -27 8 57 131 37 42 -27 2 24 0.24
130 38 32 -26 21 10 12 13 22 76 79 -48 130 2 27 -26 23 19 131 14 30 -26 18 53 129 45 27 -26 24 16 131 31 23 -26 17 45 0.24
130 32 27 -25 36 31 12 13 35 76 82 -48 129 56 35 -25 38 39 131 8 12 -25 34 15 129 39 42 -25 39 37 131 24 58 -25 33 8 0.24
130 26 15 -24 51 53 12 13 47 76 85 -48 129 50 36 -24 54 1 131 1 47 -24 49 38 129 33 49 -24 54 58 131 18 28 -24 48 31 0.24
130 19 56 -24 7 16 12 13 59 76 88 -47 129 44 30 -24 9 23 130 55 16 -24 5 1 129 27 49 -24 10 19 131 11 51 -24 3 55 0.24
130 13 31 -23 22 39 12 14 11 76 91 -47 129 38 17 -23 24 45 130 48 39 -23 20 25 129 21 41 -23 25 41 131 5 8 -23 19 19 0.24
130 6 59 -22 38 1 12 14 23 76 95 -47 129 31 57 -22 40 6 130 41 56 -22 35 48 129 15 26 -22 41 2 130 58 19 -22 34 43 0.24
130 0 21 -21 53 22 12 14 35 76 98 -47 129 25 29 -21 55 27 130 35 6 -21 51 10 129 9 4 -21 56 22 130 51 25 -21 50 5 0.24
129 53 35 -21 8 42 12 14 47 76 101 -47 129 18 54 -21 10 46 130 28 10 -21 6 31 129 2 34 -21 11 41 130 44 24 -21 5 26 0.24
129 46 43 -20 24 0 12 14 59 76 103 -47 129 12 12 -20 26 3 130 21 8 -20 21 50 128 55 56 -20 26 58 130 37 17 -20 20 46 0.23
129 39 44 -19 39 16 12 15 11 76 106 -47 129 5 23 -19 41 18 130 14 0 -19 37 6 128 49 12 -19 42 13 130 30 4 -19 36 3 0.23
129 32 38 -18 54 29 12 15 23 75 109 -47 128 58 26 -18 56 31 130 6 45 -18 52 20 128 42 19 -18 57 25 130 22 45 -18 51 17 0.23
129 25 25 -18 9 39 12 15 35 75 112 -47 128 51 22 -18 11 40 129 59 23 -18 7 31 128 35 19 -18 12 34 130 15 20 -18 6 28 0.23
129 18 6 -17 24 46 12 15 48 75 114 -46 128 44 10 -17 26 45 129 51 56 -17 22 38 128 28 12 -17 27 39 130 7 48 -17 21 36 0.23
129 10 39 -16 39 48 12 16 0 74 116 -46 128 36 51 -16 41 46 129 44 21 -16 37 41 128 20 56 -16 42 40 130 0 10 -16 36 39 0.23
129 3 5 -15 54 45 12 16 12 74 119 -46 128 29 25 -15 56 43 129 36 40 -15 52 39 128 13 33 -15 57 36 129 52 25 -15 51 37 0.23
128 55 24 -15 9 37 12 16 24 73 121 -46 128 21 51 -15 11 34 129 28 51 -15 7 32 128 6 2 -15 12 27 129 44 33 -15 6 31 0.23
128 47 35 -14 24 24 12 16 36 73 123 -46 128 14 9 -14 26 20 129 20 56 -14 22 20 127 58 24 -14 27 12 129 36 35 -14 21 19 0.23
128 39 39 -13 39 4 12 16 48 73 125 -45 128 6 19 -13 41 0 129 12 54 -13 37 1 127 50 36 -13 41 51 129 28 29 -13 36 1 0.23
128 31 35 -12 53 38 12 17 0 72 126 -45 127 58 21 -12 55 33 129 4 44 -12 51 36 127 42 41 -12 56 24 129 20 17 -12 50 36 0.22
128 23 23 -12 8 5 12 17 12 72 128 -45 127 50 14 -12 9 58 128 56 27 -12 6 3 127 34 37 -12 10 49 129 11 57 -12 5 3 0.22
128 15 3 -11 22 23 12 17 24 71 130 -45 127 42 0 -11 24 16 128 48 2 -11 20 23 127 26 25 -11 25 6 129 3 30 -11 19 23 0.22
128 6 36 -10 36 34 12 17 36 70 131 -44 127 33 36 -10 38 26 128 39 29 -10 34 34 127 18 4 -10 39 15 128 54 55 -10 33 35 0.22
127 57 59 - 9 50 35 12 17 48 70 133 -44 127 25 4 - 9 52 26 128 30 49 - 9 48 37 127 9 34 - 9 53 16 128 46 13 - 9 47 38 0.22
127 49 14 - 9 4 27 12 18 0 69 134 -44 127 16 23 - 9 6 17 128 22 0 - 9 2 30 127 0 55 - 9 7 6 128 37 22 - 9 1 32 0.22
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2019 Apr 15.0
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