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Updated: 2019 APR 15, 17:30 UT
Event Rank : 46
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 May 08 UT, the 48.9812547117376 km diameter asteroid (926) Imhilde will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a faily narrow path across Australia, from the Gove Penninsula across northern Northern Territory and north-western Western Australia to Carnarvon and across roughly the middle of New Guinea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.47 mag to 14.50 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
145 18 21 3 0 0 14 41 51 37 138 -69 144 55 53 145 40 39 143 42 3 146 51 38 -1.16
144 54 42 2 0 0 14 42 4 38 138 -70 144 32 5 145 17 8 143 17 44 146 28 33 -1.16
144 29 35 1 0 0 14 42 17 38 137 -71 144 6 49 144 52 11 142 51 53 146 4 6 -1.16
144 2 59 0 0 0 14 42 31 39 136 -72 143 40 1 144 25 45 142 24 26 145 38 14 -1.16
143 34 49 - 1 0 0 14 42 45 39 135 -73 143 11 39 143 57 48 141 55 20 145 10 55 -1.16
143 5 3 - 2 0 0 14 42 59 39 135 -74 142 41 39 143 28 17 141 24 30 144 42 5 -1.16
142 33 37 - 3 0 0 14 43 13 40 134 -75 142 9 56 142 57 6 140 51 53 144 11 42 -1.15
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
141 0 0 - 5 41 37 14 43 53 41 131 -78 - 5 1 50 - 6 20 26 - 2 45 23 - 8 20 6 -1.15
140 0 0 - 7 14 9 14 44 16 41 130 -80 - 6 36 39 - 7 50 49 - 4 29 0 - 9 44 27 -1.15
139 0 0 - 8 39 33 14 44 39 41 129 -81 - 8 3 59 - 9 14 26 - 6 3 31 -11 2 57 -1.14
138 0 0 - 9 58 48 14 45 0 41 127 -83 - 9 24 50 -10 32 9 - 7 30 22 -12 16 13 -1.14
137 0 0 -11 12 35 14 45 20 41 126 -84 -10 40 1 -11 44 36 - 8 50 39 -13 24 49 -1.14
136 0 0 -12 21 30 14 45 40 41 125 -85 -11 50 9 -12 52 22 -10 5 11 -14 29 11 -1.14
135 0 0 -13 26 2 14 45 59 41 124 -85 -12 55 45 -13 55 52 -11 14 37 -15 29 39 -1.14
134 0 0 -14 26 33 14 46 17 41 123 -85 -13 57 14 -14 55 29 -12 19 28 -16 26 34 -1.14
133 0 0 -15 23 25 14 46 34 41 122 -85 -14 54 56 -15 51 32 -13 20 11 -17 20 11 -1.14
132 0 0 -16 16 54 14 46 51 40 122 -85 -15 49 11 -16 44 17 -14 17 6 -18 10 44 -1.14
131 0 0 -17 7 14 14 47 7 40 121 -84 -16 40 13 -17 33 58 -15 10 32 -18 58 25 -1.14
130 0 0 -17 54 39 14 47 22 40 120 -83 -17 28 15 -18 20 46 -16 0 44 -19 43 24 -1.14
129 0 0 -18 39 19 14 47 37 39 120 -82 -18 13 29 -19 4 54 -16 47 56 -20 25 52 -1.13
128 0 0 -19 21 25 14 47 52 39 119 -81 -18 56 6 -19 46 29 -17 32 20 -21 5 56 -1.13
127 0 0 -20 1 5 14 48 6 38 119 -80 -19 36 13 -20 25 41 -18 14 6 -21 43 45 -1.13
126 0 0 -20 38 26 14 48 19 38 118 -79 -20 14 1 -21 2 38 -18 53 22 -22 19 24 -1.13
125 0 0 -21 13 36 14 48 32 37 118 -78 -20 49 34 -21 37 24 -19 30 18 -22 53 0 -1.13
124 0 0 -21 46 40 14 48 45 37 117 -77 -21 23 0 -22 10 7 -20 4 59 -23 24 38 -1.13
123 0 0 -22 17 45 14 48 58 36 117 -76 -21 54 25 -22 40 53 -20 37 32 -23 54 23 -1.13
122 0 0 -22 46 55 14 49 10 36 117 -75 -22 23 54 -23 9 45 -21 8 4 -24 22 20 -1.14
121 0 0 -23 14 15 14 49 21 35 117 -74 -22 51 31 -23 36 48 -21 36 39 -24 48 33 -1.14
120 0 0 -23 39 49 14 49 33 34 117 -73 -23 17 20 -24 2 7 -22 3 21 -25 13 5 -1.14
119 0 0 -24 3 41 14 49 44 34 116 -72 -23 41 26 -24 25 45 -22 28 15 -25 36 0 -1.14
118 0 0 -24 25 53 14 49 54 33 116 -71 -24 3 52 -24 47 45 -22 51 25 -25 57 20 -1.14
117 0 0 -24 46 30 14 50 5 33 116 -70 -24 24 40 -25 8 10 -23 12 53 -26 17 9 -1.14
116 0 0 -25 5 33 14 50 15 32 116 -69 -24 43 54 -25 27 2 -23 32 44 -26 35 29 -1.14
115 0 0 -25 23 5 14 50 24 31 116 -68 -25 1 36 -25 44 25 -23 50 59 -26 52 22 -1.14
114 0 0 -25 39 9 14 50 34 31 116 -67 -25 17 48 -26 0 20 -24 7 41 -27 7 50 -1.14
113 0 0 -25 53 45 14 50 43 30 116 -66 -25 32 33 -26 14 49 -24 22 53 -27 21 55 -1.14
112 0 0 -26 6 57 14 50 52 29 116 -66 -25 45 52 -26 27 54 -24 36 35 -27 34 39 -1.14
111 0 0 -26 18 46 14 51 1 29 117 -65 -25 57 46 -26 39 36 -24 48 50 -27 46 3 -1.15
110 0 0 -26 29 12 14 51 10 28 117 -64 -26 8 18 -26 49 57 -24 59 39 -27 56 8 -1.15
109 0 0 -26 38 17 14 51 18 27 117 -63 -26 17 27 -26 58 58 -25 9 4 -28 4 55 -1.15
108 0 0 -26 46 2 14 51 26 27 117 -62 -26 25 16 -27 6 39 -25 17 5 -28 12 25 -1.15
107 0 0 -26 52 28 14 51 34 26 117 -61 -26 31 45 -27 13 2 -25 23 43 -28 18 40 -1.15
106 0 0 -26 57 35 14 51 41 25 117 -60 -26 36 54 -27 18 8 -25 28 59 -28 23 38 -1.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2019 Apr 15.0
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