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Updated: 2019 JAN 13, 17:31 UT
Event Rank : 77
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 May 06 UT, the 75.7 km diameter asteroid (693) Zerbinetta will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a fairly narrow path across Western Australia from Perth to near Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.09 mag to 14.25 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
124 23 59 -11 0 0 19 33 19 57 192 -33 124 1 46 124 46 11 123 36 33 125 11 20 -0.09
124 1 45 -12 0 0 19 33 33 58 192 -34 123 39 26 124 24 3 123 14 6 124 49 18 -0.09
123 39 15 -13 0 0 19 33 48 59 191 -34 123 16 50 124 1 39 122 51 22 124 27 1 -0.09
123 16 29 -14 0 0 19 34 4 60 191 -35 122 53 56 123 39 0 122 28 21 124 4 29 -0.09
122 53 25 -15 0 0 19 34 19 61 191 -35 122 30 45 123 16 3 122 5 2 123 41 41 -0.09
122 30 3 -16 0 0 19 34 35 62 191 -35 122 7 15 122 52 49 121 41 23 123 18 35 -0.09
122 6 22 -17 0 0 19 34 51 63 191 -36 121 43 26 122 29 16 121 17 23 122 55 12 -0.09
121 42 20 -18 0 0 19 35 6 64 191 -36 121 19 15 122 5 23 120 53 3 122 31 29 -0.08
121 17 57 -19 0 0 19 35 23 66 191 -37 120 54 42 121 41 10 120 28 19 122 7 26 -0.08
120 53 12 -20 0 0 19 35 39 67 190 -37 120 29 47 121 16 35 120 3 12 121 43 3 -0.08
120 28 3 -21 0 0 19 35 55 68 190 -38 120 4 27 120 51 37 119 37 40 121 18 17 -0.08
120 2 29 -22 0 0 19 36 12 69 190 -38 119 38 42 120 26 14 119 11 42 120 53 7 -0.08
119 36 30 -23 0 0 19 36 28 70 190 -39 119 12 30 120 0 27 118 45 16 120 27 33 -0.08
119 10 2 -24 0 0 19 36 45 71 189 -39 118 45 50 119 34 12 118 18 21 120 1 33 -0.08
118 43 6 -25 0 0 19 37 2 72 189 -39 118 18 40 119 7 30 117 50 56 119 35 6 -0.08
118 15 40 -26 0 0 19 37 19 73 188 -40 117 50 59 118 40 17 117 22 58 119 8 9 -0.08
117 47 41 -27 0 0 19 37 36 74 188 -40 117 22 45 118 12 33 116 54 27 118 40 42 -0.07
117 19 8 -28 0 0 19 37 53 75 187 -40 116 53 56 117 44 17 116 25 19 118 12 44 -0.07
116 49 59 -29 0 0 19 38 11 76 187 -41 116 24 31 117 15 25 115 55 34 117 44 11 -0.07
116 20 13 -30 0 0 19 38 28 77 186 -41 115 54 26 116 45 56 115 25 10 117 15 2 -0.07
115 49 46 -31 0 0 19 38 46 78 185 -41 115 23 41 116 15 48 114 54 2 116 45 15 -0.07
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
114 0 0 -34 25 18 19 39 47 81 179 -42 -33 36 23 -35 14 11 -32 40 55 -36 9 38 -0.07
113 0 0 -36 10 24 19 40 19 83 173 -43 -35 22 31 -36 58 18 -34 28 11 -37 52 36 -0.07
112 0 0 -37 50 42 19 40 49 84 164 -43 -37 3 47 -38 37 36 -36 10 36 -39 30 48 -0.07
111 0 0 -39 26 19 19 41 18 85 150 -43 -38 40 23 -40 12 16 -37 48 18 -41 4 22 -0.07
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
Use these links for further information:
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