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Updated: 2019 JAN 13, 17:27 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 May 04 UT, the 50.7 km diameter asteroid (2146) Stentor will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a narrow path near Australia, passing just off shore of Albany in south-western Western Australia - Albany is within the one sigma limit (It crosses Tasmania and New Zealand after sunrise).
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.55 mag to 17.76 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
106 0 0 -34 21 19 21 33 2 56 55 -25 -34 37 25 -34 5 16 -35 57 39 -32 46 23 0.52
107 0 0 -34 35 26 21 33 8 57 53 -24 -34 51 31 -34 19 23 -36 11 42 -33 0 34 0.52
108 0 0 -34 49 23 21 33 15 57 52 -24 -35 5 27 -34 33 21 -36 25 34 -33 14 35 0.52
109 0 0 -35 3 10 21 33 22 58 50 -23 -35 19 13 -34 47 9 -36 39 17 -33 28 27 0.52
110 0 0 -35 16 47 21 33 28 58 48 -22 -35 32 50 -35 0 46 -36 52 49 -33 42 8 0.52
111 0 0 -35 30 13 21 33 35 59 46 -21 -35 46 15 -35 14 14 -37 6 11 -33 55 39 0.52
112 0 0 -35 43 29 21 33 42 59 44 -20 -35 59 30 -35 27 30 -37 19 22 -34 8 59 0.52
113 0 0 -35 56 34 21 33 48 60 43 -19 -36 12 35 -35 40 36 -37 32 22 -34 22 9 0.52
114 0 0 -36 9 28 21 33 55 60 41 -19 -36 25 28 -35 53 31 -37 45 11 -34 35 8 0.52
115 0 0 -36 22 11 21 34 2 60 39 -18 -36 38 10 -36 6 15 -37 57 49 -34 47 56 0.52
116 0 0 -36 34 43 21 34 8 61 37 -17 -36 50 41 -36 18 47 -38 10 15 -35 0 32 0.52
117 0 0 -36 47 3 21 34 15 61 35 -16 -37 3 0 -36 31 8 -38 22 30 -35 12 57 0.52
118 0 0 -36 59 11 21 34 22 61 33 -16 -37 15 7 -36 43 17 -38 34 34 -35 25 10 0.52
119 0 0 -37 11 7 21 34 28 62 30 -15 -37 27 3 -36 55 14 -38 46 25 -35 37 12 0.52
120 0 0 -37 22 52 21 34 35 62 28 -14 -37 38 46 -37 7 0 -38 58 4 -35 49 1 0.52
121 0 0 -37 34 24 21 34 42 62 26 -13 -37 50 18 -37 18 33 -39 9 31 -36 0 39 0.52
122 0 0 -37 45 44 21 34 48 62 24 -12 -38 1 37 -37 29 54 -39 20 46 -36 12 4 0.52
123 0 0 -37 56 52 21 34 55 62 22 -12 -38 12 44 -37 41 2 -39 31 48 -36 23 16 0.52
124 0 0 -38 7 47 21 35 2 62 20 -11 -38 23 38 -37 51 58 -39 42 38 -36 34 17 0.52
125 0 0 -38 18 30 21 35 8 63 17 -10 -38 34 20 -38 2 42 -39 53 16 -36 45 4 0.52
126 0 0 -38 28 59 21 35 15 63 15 -9 -38 44 49 -38 13 12 -40 3 40 -36 55 39 0.52
127 0 0 -38 39 16 21 35 21 63 13 -9 -38 55 5 -38 23 30 -40 13 52 -37 6 1 0.52
128 0 0 -38 49 20 21 35 28 63 11 -8 -39 5 8 -38 33 35 -40 23 51 -37 16 10 0.52
129 0 0 -38 59 11 21 35 34 63 8 -7 -39 14 58 -38 43 27 -40 33 36 -37 26 6 0.52
130 0 0 -39 8 49 21 35 41 63 6 -6 -39 24 35 -38 53 5 -40 43 9 -37 35 48 0.52
131 0 0 -39 18 13 21 35 47 62 4 -6 -39 33 58 -39 2 31 -40 52 28 -37 45 18 0.52
132 0 0 -39 27 25 21 35 54 62 2 -5 -39 43 9 -39 11 43 -41 1 34 -37 54 34 0.52
133 0 0 -39 36 22 21 36 0 62 360 -4 -39 52 6 -39 20 41 -41 10 27 -38 3 36 0.52
134 0 0 -39 45 7 21 36 7 62 357 -4 -40 0 49 -39 29 26 -41 19 7 -38 12 25 0.52
135 0 0 -39 53 37 21 36 13 62 355 -3 -40 9 19 -39 37 58 -41 27 33 -38 21 1 0.52
136 0 0 -40 1 55 21 36 19 62 353 -2 -40 17 36 -39 46 16 -41 35 45 -38 29 22 0.52
137 0 0 -40 9 58 21 36 26 61 351 -1 -40 25 38 -39 54 20 -41 43 44 -38 37 31 0.52
138 0 0 -40 17 48 21 36 32 61 349 -1 -40 33 28 -40 2 11 -41 51 29 -38 45 25 0.52
139 0 0 -40 25 24 21 36 38 61 347 0 -40 41 3 -40 9 48 -41 59 1 -38 53 5 0.52
140 0 0 -40 32 47 21 36 44 61 345 1 -40 48 25 -40 17 11 -42 6 19 -39 0 32 0.52
141 0 0 -40 39 55 21 36 51 60 343 1 -40 55 32 -40 24 20 -42 13 23 -39 7 44 0.52
142 0 0 -40 46 50 21 36 57 60 341 2 -41 2 26 -40 31 15 -42 20 13 -39 14 43 0.52
143 0 0 -40 53 30 21 37 3 60 339 3 -41 9 6 -40 37 57 -42 26 50 -39 21 28 0.52
144 0 0 -40 59 57 21 37 9 59 338 3 -41 15 32 -40 44 24 -42 33 12 -39 27 58 0.52
145 0 0 -41 6 10 21 37 15 59 336 4 -41 21 44 -40 50 37 -42 39 21 -39 34 15 0.52
146 0 0 -41 12 9 21 37 21 58 334 5 -41 27 43 -40 56 37 -42 45 16 -39 40 17 0.52
147 0 0 -41 17 53 21 37 27 58 332 5 -41 33 27 -41 2 22 -42 50 57 -39 46 5 0.52
148 0 0 -41 23 24 21 37 33 57 331 6 -41 38 57 -41 7 53 -42 56 25 -39 51 39 0.52
149 0 0 -41 28 41 21 37 39 57 329 7 -41 44 13 -41 13 10 -43 1 38 -39 56 59 0.52
150 0 0 -41 33 43 21 37 44 56 327 7 -41 49 15 -41 18 13 -43 6 37 -40 2 5 0.52
151 0 0 -41 38 31 21 37 50 56 326 8 -41 54 3 -41 23 2 -43 11 22 -40 6 56 0.52
152 0 0 -41 43 6 21 37 56 56 324 8 -41 58 36 -41 27 37 -43 15 54 -40 11 33 0.52
153 0 0 -41 47 26 21 38 1 55 323 9 -42 2 56 -41 31 58 -43 20 11 -40 15 56 0.52
154 0 0 -41 51 32 21 38 7 54 321 10 -42 7 2 -41 36 4 -43 24 14 -40 20 5 0.52
155 0 0 -41 55 24 21 38 13 54 320 10 -42 10 53 -41 39 56 -43 28 4 -40 23 59 0.52
156 0 0 -41 59 1 21 38 18 53 318 11 -42 14 30 -41 43 34 -43 31 39 -40 27 39 0.52
157 0 0 -42 2 25 21 38 24 53 317 11 -42 17 53 -41 46 58 -43 35 0 -40 31 4 0.52
158 0 0 -42 5 34 21 38 29 52 316 12 -42 21 2 -41 50 8 -43 38 8 -40 34 16 0.52
159 0 0 -42 8 29 21 38 35 52 314 13 -42 23 57 -41 53 3 -43 41 1 -40 37 12 0.52
160 0 0 -42 11 10 21 38 40 51 313 13 -42 26 38 -41 55 45 -43 43 40 -40 39 55 0.52
161 0 0 -42 13 37 21 38 45 51 312 14 -42 29 4 -41 58 12 -43 46 6 -40 42 23 0.52
162 0 0 -42 15 50 21 38 50 50 310 14 -42 31 17 -42 0 24 -43 48 17 -40 44 37 0.52
163 0 0 -42 17 48 21 38 56 49 309 15 -42 33 15 -42 2 23 -43 50 14 -40 46 37 0.52
164 0 0 -42 19 32 21 39 1 49 308 16 -42 34 59 -42 4 7 -43 51 57 -40 48 22 0.52
165 0 0 -42 21 2 21 39 6 48 307 16 -42 36 29 -42 5 38 -43 53 26 -40 49 53 0.52
166 0 0 -42 22 18 21 39 11 48 306 17 -42 37 45 -42 6 54 -43 54 42 -40 51 9 0.52
167 0 0 -42 23 20 21 39 16 47 305 17 -42 38 46 -42 7 55 -43 55 43 -40 52 12 0.52
168 0 0 -42 24 7 21 39 21 46 303 18 -42 39 34 -42 8 43 -43 56 30 -40 53 0 0.52
169 0 0 -42 24 41 21 39 26 46 302 18 -42 40 7 -42 9 17 -43 57 3 -40 53 33 0.52
170 0 0 -42 25 0 21 39 31 45 301 19 -42 40 27 -42 9 36 -43 57 23 -40 53 53 0.52
171 0 0 -42 25 5 21 39 35 44 300 19 -42 40 32 -42 9 41 -43 57 28 -40 53 58 0.52
172 0 0 -42 24 56 21 39 40 44 299 20 -42 40 23 -42 9 32 -43 57 19 -40 53 48 0.52
173 0 0 -42 24 33 21 39 45 43 298 20 -42 40 0 -42 9 9 -43 56 57 -40 53 25 0.52
174 0 0 -42 23 56 21 39 49 42 297 21 -42 39 23 -42 8 32 -43 56 20 -40 52 47 0.52
175 0 0 -42 23 5 21 39 54 42 296 21 -42 38 32 -42 7 40 -43 55 30 -40 51 55 0.52
176 0 0 -42 21 59 21 39 58 41 295 22 -42 37 27 -42 6 35 -43 54 25 -40 50 49 0.52
177 0 0 -42 20 40 21 40 3 40 294 22 -42 36 7 -42 5 15 -43 53 7 -40 49 28 0.52
178 0 0 -42 19 7 21 40 7 40 293 23 -42 34 34 -42 3 41 -43 51 35 -40 47 53 0.52
179 0 0 -42 17 19 21 40 11 39 292 23 -42 32 47 -42 1 54 -43 49 49 -40 46 4 0.52
180 0 0 -42 15 18 21 40 16 38 291 24 -42 30 45 -41 59 52 -43 47 49 -40 44 1 0.52
Uncertainty in time = +/- 15 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
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