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Updated: 2018 Dec 19, 17:24 UT
Event Rank : 82
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Apr 29 UT, the 56 km diameter asteroid (1071) Brita will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a slightly uncertain path running down the Pacific coast of Queensland from Cape York to Brisbane.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.89 mag to 15.77 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-318-217959 by 1071 Brita on 2019 Apr 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
139 21 34 -10 1 25 13 49 49 14 115 -77 140 8 4 -10 11 12 138 32 32 - 9 50 20 140 52 36 -10 19 55 137 40 16 - 9 37 38 1.04
140 39 9 -11 8 54 13 50 9 15 115 -79 141 21 45 -11 16 37 139 54 44 -11 0 14 142 2 54 -11 23 32 139 8 1 -10 50 26 1.06
141 47 23 -12 11 33 13 50 28 17 114 -80 142 27 10 -12 17 46 141 6 12 -12 4 36 143 5 49 -12 23 19 140 23 15 -11 56 48 1.07
142 48 40 -13 10 36 13 50 47 18 114 -81 143 26 19 -13 15 38 142 9 53 -13 4 57 144 3 3 -13 20 8 141 29 40 -12 58 37 1.08
143 44 31 -14 6 48 13 51 6 19 113 -82 144 20 29 -14 10 54 143 7 36 -14 2 11 144 55 41 -14 14 33 142 29 29 -13 57 0 1.08
144 35 59 -15 0 43 13 51 25 21 113 -83 145 10 35 -15 4 3 144 0 33 -14 56 56 145 44 32 -15 6 58 143 24 5 -14 52 40 1.09
145 23 47 -15 52 43 13 51 44 22 113 -84 145 57 16 -15 55 23 144 49 35 -15 49 38 146 30 11 -15 57 43 144 14 27 -15 46 8 1.09
146 8 31 -16 43 5 13 52 4 23 112 -84 146 41 3 -16 45 12 145 35 19 -16 40 37 147 13 6 -16 47 0 145 1 18 -16 37 46 1.09
146 50 35 -17 32 4 13 52 23 24 112 -85 147 22 20 -17 33 42 146 18 15 -17 30 7 147 53 38 -17 35 2 145 45 10 -17 27 49 1.09
147 30 21 -18 19 49 13 52 42 25 111 -85 148 1 25 -18 21 1 146 58 44 -18 18 20 148 32 5 -18 21 57 146 26 27 -18 16 31 1.09
148 8 4 -19 6 30 13 53 1 26 111 -84 148 38 33 -19 7 19 147 37 5 -19 5 25 149 8 40 -19 7 53 147 5 28 -19 4 2 1.09
148 43 58 -19 52 13 13 53 20 26 110 -84 149 13 56 -19 52 42 148 13 32 -19 51 30 149 43 35 -19 52 56 147 42 30 -19 50 31 1.09
149 18 15 -20 37 5 13 53 39 27 110 -84 149 47 47 -20 37 15 148 48 17 -20 36 41 150 17 0 -20 37 11 148 17 45 -20 36 3 1.09
149 51 3 -21 21 11 13 53 59 28 109 -83 150 20 12 -21 21 3 149 21 30 -21 21 5 150 49 3 -21 20 43 148 51 24 -21 20 45 1.09
150 22 32 -22 4 34 13 54 18 29 109 -82 150 51 20 -22 4 11 149 53 20 -22 4 45 151 19 52 -22 3 36 149 23 37 -22 4 42 1.09
150 52 47 -22 47 19 13 54 37 30 108 -82 151 21 18 -22 46 42 150 23 54 -22 47 45 151 49 33 -22 45 53 149 54 31 -22 47 58 1.09
151 21 55 -23 29 29 13 54 56 30 108 -81 151 50 10 -23 28 38 150 53 18 -23 30 9 152 18 11 -23 27 36 150 24 13 -23 30 36 1.09
151 50 1 -24 11 7 13 55 15 31 107 -80 152 18 3 -24 10 4 151 21 39 -24 11 59 152 45 51 -24 8 50 150 52 49 -24 12 40 1.09
152 17 10 -24 52 15 13 55 34 32 107 -79 152 45 0 -24 51 0 151 49 0 -24 53 20 153 12 37 -24 49 35 151 20 23 -24 54 13 1.08
152 43 25 -25 32 56 13 55 54 32 106 -79 153 11 5 -25 31 30 152 15 26 -25 34 12 153 38 32 -25 29 54 151 47 1 -25 35 17 1.08
153 8 51 -26 13 12 13 56 13 33 106 -78 153 36 22 -26 11 35 152 41 1 -26 14 38 154 3 41 -26 9 49 152 12 46 -26 15 54 1.08
153 33 30 -26 53 4 13 56 32 34 105 -77 154 0 54 -26 51 18 153 5 49 -26 54 40 154 28 6 -26 49 22 152 37 42 -26 56 7 1.08
153 57 26 -27 32 34 13 56 51 34 105 -76 154 24 44 -27 30 39 153 29 51 -27 34 20 154 51 50 -27 28 34 153 1 52 -27 35 56 1.08
154 20 41 -28 11 44 13 57 10 35 104 -76 154 47 54 -28 9 40 153 53 12 -28 13 39 155 14 55 -28 7 27 153 25 18 -28 15 25 1.08
154 43 18 -28 50 35 13 57 29 35 104 -75 155 10 26 -28 48 23 154 15 53 -28 52 39 155 37 24 -28 46 2 153 48 4 -28 54 33 1.07
155 5 18 -29 29 9 13 57 49 36 103 -74 155 32 24 -29 26 49 154 37 57 -29 31 21 155 59 19 -29 24 20 154 10 12 -29 33 24 1.07
155 26 44 -30 7 26 13 58 8 36 102 -74 155 53 47 -30 4 59 154 59 25 -30 9 46 156 20 40 -30 2 22 154 31 43 -30 11 57 1.07
155 47 38 -30 45 28 13 58 27 37 102 -73 156 14 39 -30 42 53 155 20 20 -30 47 55 156 41 31 -30 40 10 154 52 40 -30 50 14 1.07
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2018 Dec 19.0
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