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Updated: 2019 Mar 02, 00:14 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Apr 28 UT, the 28 km diameter asteroid (3976) Lise will occult a 8.1 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a significantly uncertain path across South Australia and Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.54 mag to 16.64 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 52349 by 3976 Lise on 2019 Apr 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
143 47 17 -45 0 15 13 58 59 31 298 -59 143 30 33 -44 59 50 144 4 7 -45 0 40 142 1 11 -44 57 23 145 37 5 -45 2 47 -0.74
142 59 9 -44 10 12 13 59 10 32 299 -60 142 42 53 -44 9 45 143 15 30 -44 10 38 141 16 0 -44 7 14 144 45 44 -44 12 50 -0.74
142 14 14 -43 20 38 13 59 21 33 299 -60 141 58 24 -43 20 11 142 30 9 -43 21 5 140 33 47 -43 17 35 143 57 52 -43 23 23 -0.74
141 32 13 -42 31 33 13 59 32 33 299 -61 141 16 47 -42 31 5 141 47 44 -42 32 1 139 54 15 -42 28 26 143 13 10 -42 34 24 -0.74
140 52 51 -41 42 56 13 59 43 34 299 -61 140 37 47 -41 42 27 141 7 59 -41 43 24 139 17 9 -41 39 45 142 31 20 -41 45 51 -0.74
140 15 53 -40 54 46 13 59 53 35 299 -62 140 1 9 -40 54 17 140 30 40 -40 55 15 138 42 17 -40 51 31 141 52 6 -40 57 45 -0.74
139 41 6 -40 7 2 14 0 4 36 299 -63 139 26 41 -40 6 32 139 55 35 -40 7 31 138 9 28 -40 3 44 141 15 13 -40 10 5 -0.74
139 8 21 -39 19 42 14 0 15 36 299 -63 138 54 13 -39 19 12 139 22 32 -39 20 12 137 38 31 -39 16 22 140 40 31 -39 22 48 -0.74
138 37 27 -38 32 46 14 0 26 37 299 -64 138 23 36 -38 32 16 138 51 22 -38 33 17 137 9 19 -38 29 24 140 7 49 -38 35 56 -0.74
138 8 17 -37 46 13 14 0 37 38 299 -64 137 54 40 -37 45 43 138 21 56 -37 46 44 136 41 43 -37 42 49 139 36 57 -37 49 25 -0.74
137 40 42 -37 0 3 14 0 48 39 299 -65 137 27 20 -36 59 31 137 54 7 -37 0 34 136 15 37 -36 56 37 139 7 48 -37 3 17 -0.74
137 14 35 -36 14 13 14 0 59 39 299 -66 137 1 27 -36 13 41 137 27 47 -36 14 44 135 50 54 -36 10 46 138 40 13 -36 17 29 -0.74
136 49 52 -35 28 44 14 1 10 40 298 -66 136 36 55 -35 28 12 137 2 51 -35 29 15 135 27 28 -35 25 15 138 14 7 -35 32 1 -0.74
136 26 25 -34 43 34 14 1 20 40 298 -67 136 13 41 -34 43 2 136 39 13 -34 44 5 135 5 15 -34 40 4 137 49 23 -34 46 53 -0.74
136 4 11 -33 58 42 14 1 31 41 298 -67 135 51 37 -33 58 10 136 16 47 -33 59 14 134 44 10 -33 55 11 137 25 56 -34 2 3 -0.74
135 43 5 -33 14 9 14 1 42 42 297 -67 135 30 41 -33 13 37 135 55 30 -33 14 41 134 24 9 -33 10 37 137 3 40 -33 17 31 -0.74
135 23 2 -32 29 53 14 1 53 42 297 -68 135 10 49 -32 29 20 135 35 18 -32 30 25 134 5 7 -32 26 20 136 42 33 -32 33 15 -0.74
135 3 59 -31 45 53 14 2 4 43 297 -68 134 51 55 -31 45 21 135 16 6 -31 46 26 133 47 3 -31 42 20 136 22 29 -31 49 17 -0.74
134 45 53 -31 2 9 14 2 15 43 296 -69 134 33 58 -31 1 37 134 57 51 -31 2 42 133 29 52 -30 58 36 136 3 25 -31 5 34 -0.74
134 28 41 -30 18 41 14 2 26 44 296 -69 134 16 54 -30 18 8 134 40 30 -30 19 13 133 13 31 -30 15 7 135 45 18 -30 22 6 -0.74
134 12 19 -29 35 27 14 2 36 44 296 -70 134 0 40 -29 34 54 134 24 1 -29 35 59 132 57 59 -29 31 52 135 28 4 -29 38 52 -0.74
133 56 46 -28 52 27 14 2 47 45 295 -70 133 45 14 -28 51 54 134 8 20 -28 53 0 132 43 12 -28 48 52 135 11 42 -28 55 53 -0.75
133 41 58 -28 9 40 14 2 58 45 295 -70 133 30 33 -28 9 7 133 53 25 -28 10 13 132 29 9 -28 6 5 134 56 8 -28 13 7 -0.75
133 27 54 -27 27 6 14 3 9 46 294 -71 133 16 36 -27 26 33 133 39 15 -27 27 39 132 15 47 -27 23 31 134 41 20 -27 30 33 -0.75
133 14 32 -26 44 45 14 3 20 46 294 -71 133 3 20 -26 44 12 133 25 46 -26 45 18 132 3 5 -26 41 9 134 27 16 -26 48 12 -0.75
133 1 50 -26 2 35 14 3 31 46 293 -71 132 50 44 -26 2 2 133 12 57 -26 3 8 131 51 0 -25 59 0 134 13 54 -26 6 3 -0.75
132 49 45 -25 20 37 14 3 42 47 293 -72 132 38 45 -25 20 3 133 0 47 -25 21 9 131 39 32 -25 17 1 134 1 12 -25 24 4 -0.75
132 38 18 -24 38 49 14 3 53 47 292 -72 132 27 23 -24 38 16 132 49 14 -24 39 22 131 28 38 -24 35 13 133 49 8 -24 42 17 -0.75
132 27 25 -23 57 11 14 4 3 48 291 -72 132 16 35 -23 56 38 132 38 16 -23 57 44 131 18 18 -23 53 36 133 37 42 -24 0 39 -0.75
132 17 6 -23 15 44 14 4 14 48 291 -72 132 6 21 -23 15 10 132 27 53 -23 16 16 131 8 30 -23 12 8 133 26 51 -23 19 12 -0.75
132 7 20 -22 34 25 14 4 25 48 290 -73 131 56 40 -22 33 52 132 18 2 -22 34 58 130 59 13 -22 30 50 133 16 34 -22 37 53 -0.75
131 58 5 -21 53 16 14 4 36 49 290 -73 131 47 29 -21 52 43 132 8 42 -21 53 49 130 50 26 -21 49 40 133 6 50 -21 56 44 -0.75
131 49 21 -21 12 15 14 4 47 49 289 -73 131 38 49 -21 11 42 131 59 54 -21 12 48 130 42 8 -21 8 39 132 57 38 -21 15 43 -0.75
131 41 5 -20 31 22 14 4 58 49 288 -73 131 30 38 -20 30 49 131 51 35 -20 31 55 130 34 18 -20 27 47 132 48 57 -20 34 50 -0.76
131 33 19 -19 50 37 14 5 9 49 287 -73 131 22 55 -19 50 4 131 43 44 -19 51 10 130 26 55 -19 47 2 132 40 46 -19 54 5 -0.76
131 26 0 -19 9 59 14 5 19 50 287 -73 131 15 40 -19 9 26 131 36 22 -19 10 32 130 19 59 -19 6 24 132 33 3 -19 13 27 -0.76
131 19 8 -18 29 28 14 5 30 50 286 -73 131 8 51 -18 28 55 131 29 27 -18 30 1 130 13 28 -18 25 53 132 25 49 -18 32 56 -0.76
131 12 42 -17 49 3 14 5 41 50 285 -73 131 2 29 -17 48 30 131 22 58 -17 49 36 130 7 23 -17 45 29 132 19 2 -17 52 31 -0.76
131 6 42 -17 8 45 14 5 52 50 285 -74 130 56 31 -17 8 12 131 16 54 -17 9 18 130 1 42 -17 5 10 132 12 42 -17 12 13 -0.76
131 1 7 -16 28 32 14 6 3 51 284 -74 130 50 59 -16 27 59 131 11 16 -16 29 5 129 56 24 -16 24 58 132 6 48 -16 32 0 -0.76
130 55 56 -15 48 25 14 6 14 51 283 -74 130 45 51 -15 47 52 131 6 3 -15 48 58 129 51 31 -15 44 51 132 1 20 -15 51 52 -0.76
130 51 9 -15 8 23 14 6 25 51 282 -74 130 41 6 -15 7 50 131 1 13 -15 8 55 129 47 0 -15 4 49 131 56 16 -15 11 50 -0.76
130 46 45 -14 28 25 14 6 36 51 281 -74 130 36 45 -14 27 52 130 56 47 -14 28 58 129 42 51 -14 24 52 131 51 37 -14 31 52 -0.77
130 42 45 -13 48 32 14 6 46 51 281 -73 130 32 47 -13 47 59 130 52 45 -13 49 5 129 39 5 -13 44 59 131 47 22 -13 51 59 -0.77
130 39 7 -13 8 43 14 6 57 52 280 -73 130 29 11 -13 8 10 130 49 5 -13 9 16 129 35 40 -13 5 10 131 43 31 -13 12 10 -0.77
130 35 52 -12 28 58 14 7 8 52 279 -73 130 25 58 -12 28 25 130 45 47 -12 29 30 129 32 37 -12 25 25 131 40 3 -12 32 24 -0.77
130 32 58 -11 49 15 14 7 19 52 278 -73 130 23 6 -11 48 43 130 42 52 -11 49 48 129 29 55 -11 45 43 131 36 58 -11 52 42 -0.77
130 30 27 -11 9 36 14 7 30 52 277 -73 130 20 36 -11 9 4 130 40 19 -11 10 9 129 27 34 -11 6 4 131 34 15 -11 13 2 -0.77
130 28 17 -10 30 0 14 7 41 52 277 -73 130 18 28 -10 29 28 130 38 7 -10 30 33 129 25 33 -10 26 28 131 31 56 -10 33 26 -0.77
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2019 Mar 2.0
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