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Updated: 2019 Feb 15, 01:30 UT
Event Rank : 14
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Apr 15 UT, the 14.6 km diameter asteroid (8861) Jenskandler will occult 24 Scorpii, a 4.5 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a very large uncertainty path across western Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, western New South Wales and western Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 12.04 mag to 11.44 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 81724 by 8861 Jenskandler on 2019 Apr 15
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
139 46 39 -44 44 12 14 54 45 45 68 -55 139 38 23 -44 43 54 139 54 54 -44 44 29 137 30 23 -44 38 35 141 59 47 -44 48 10 -0.77
140 5 29 -44 1 47 14 54 59 45 68 -56 139 57 21 -44 1 30 140 13 37 -44 2 3 137 51 20 -43 56 29 142 16 34 -44 5 29 -0.77
140 23 3 -43 19 30 14 55 13 46 69 -56 140 15 2 -43 19 15 140 31 3 -43 19 46 138 10 55 -43 14 30 142 32 12 -43 22 58 -0.77
140 39 25 -42 37 22 14 55 27 46 69 -57 140 31 31 -42 37 8 140 47 18 -42 37 37 138 29 13 -42 32 38 142 46 43 -42 40 36 -0.77
140 54 39 -41 55 23 14 55 41 47 69 -58 140 46 51 -41 55 9 141 2 26 -41 55 36 138 46 17 -41 50 54 143 0 11 -41 58 23 -0.77
141 8 49 -41 13 31 14 55 56 47 70 -58 141 1 8 -41 13 18 141 16 30 -41 13 44 139 2 12 -41 9 17 143 12 40 -41 16 20 -0.77
141 21 59 -40 31 48 14 56 10 48 70 -59 141 14 24 -40 31 36 141 29 33 -40 32 0 139 17 2 -40 27 47 143 24 14 -40 34 25 -0.77
141 34 11 -39 50 12 14 56 24 48 71 -60 141 26 42 -39 50 0 141 41 40 -39 50 23 139 30 49 -39 46 23 143 34 54 -39 52 39 -0.77
141 45 29 -39 8 44 14 56 38 48 71 -60 141 38 6 -39 8 33 141 52 53 -39 8 54 139 43 39 -39 5 6 143 44 45 -39 11 0 -0.77
141 55 56 -38 27 22 14 56 52 49 72 -61 141 48 37 -38 27 12 142 3 14 -38 27 32 139 55 33 -38 23 56 143 53 47 -38 29 30 -0.77
142 5 34 -37 46 8 14 57 6 49 72 -62 141 58 20 -37 45 58 142 12 47 -37 46 17 140 6 33 -37 42 51 144 2 5 -37 48 7 -0.76
142 14 24 -37 5 0 14 57 20 49 73 -62 142 7 16 -37 4 51 142 21 33 -37 5 9 140 16 44 -37 1 53 144 9 39 -37 6 51 -0.76
142 22 31 -36 23 59 14 57 34 50 74 -63 142 15 27 -36 23 50 142 29 34 -36 24 7 140 26 6 -36 21 0 144 16 31 -36 25 43 -0.76
142 29 54 -35 43 3 14 57 48 50 74 -63 142 22 55 -35 42 55 142 36 54 -35 43 11 140 34 43 -35 40 13 144 22 45 -35 44 40 -0.76
142 36 37 -35 2 14 14 58 2 50 75 -64 142 29 42 -35 2 6 142 43 32 -35 2 21 140 42 36 -34 59 31 144 28 20 -35 3 44 -0.76
142 42 41 -34 21 29 14 58 16 51 76 -65 142 35 50 -34 21 22 142 49 32 -34 21 37 140 49 46 -34 18 54 144 33 20 -34 22 54 -0.76
142 48 8 -33 40 51 14 58 30 51 76 -65 142 41 20 -33 40 43 142 54 55 -33 40 57 140 56 17 -33 38 21 144 37 44 -33 42 10 -0.76
142 52 58 -33 0 17 14 58 44 51 77 -66 142 46 14 -33 0 10 142 59 42 -33 0 23 141 2 8 -32 57 53 144 41 35 -33 1 31 -0.76
142 57 14 -32 19 47 14 58 58 52 78 -66 142 50 33 -32 19 41 143 3 54 -32 19 53 141 7 23 -32 17 29 144 44 55 -32 20 57 -0.76
143 0 56 -31 39 22 14 59 12 52 78 -67 142 54 19 -31 39 16 143 7 33 -31 39 28 141 12 1 -31 37 10 144 47 43 -31 40 27 -0.75
143 4 7 -30 59 1 14 59 26 52 79 -68 142 57 33 -30 58 55 143 10 40 -30 59 7 141 16 5 -30 56 53 144 50 1 -31 0 2 -0.75
143 6 46 -30 18 44 14 59 40 52 80 -68 143 0 15 -30 18 38 143 13 16 -30 18 49 141 19 36 -30 16 40 144 51 50 -30 19 41 -0.75
143 8 55 -29 38 30 14 59 54 52 81 -69 143 2 28 -29 38 24 143 15 23 -29 38 35 141 22 35 -29 36 31 144 53 12 -29 39 24 -0.75
143 10 35 -28 58 19 15 0 8 53 82 -69 143 4 11 -28 58 14 143 17 0 -28 58 24 141 25 2 -28 56 24 144 54 6 -28 59 10 -0.75
143 11 47 -28 18 11 15 0 23 53 82 -70 143 5 25 -28 18 6 143 18 9 -28 18 16 141 26 59 -28 16 19 144 54 34 -28 19 0 -0.75
143 12 32 -27 38 6 15 0 37 53 83 -71 143 6 12 -27 38 1 143 18 51 -27 38 10 141 28 26 -27 36 17 144 54 37 -27 38 52 -0.75
143 12 50 -26 58 3 15 0 51 53 84 -71 143 6 32 -26 57 58 143 19 6 -26 58 7 141 29 25 -26 56 16 144 54 15 -26 58 47 -0.75
143 12 41 -26 18 2 15 1 5 53 85 -72 143 6 27 -26 17 57 143 18 56 -26 18 6 141 29 56 -26 16 18 144 53 28 -26 18 43 0.74
143 12 8 -25 38 2 15 1 19 53 86 -72 143 5 55 -25 37 58 143 18 20 -25 38 6 141 30 0 -25 36 20 144 52 18 -25 38 42 0.74
143 11 9 -24 58 4 15 1 33 53 87 -73 143 4 59 -24 58 0 143 17 19 -24 58 8 141 29 38 -24 56 24 144 50 44 -24 58 43 0.74
143 9 47 -24 18 7 15 1 47 53 87 -73 143 3 39 -24 18 3 143 15 54 -24 18 11 141 28 49 -24 16 28 144 48 48 -24 18 44 0.74
143 8 0 -23 38 10 15 2 1 54 88 -74 143 1 54 -23 38 6 143 14 6 -23 38 14 141 27 35 -23 36 33 144 46 30 -23 38 47 0.74
143 5 51 -22 58 14 15 2 15 54 89 -74 142 59 46 -22 58 10 143 11 55 -22 58 18 141 25 57 -22 56 38 144 43 50 -22 58 50 0.74
143 3 18 -22 18 19 15 2 29 54 90 -75 142 57 16 -22 18 14 143 9 20 -22 18 22 141 23 53 -22 16 43 144 40 49 -22 18 54 0.74
143 0 23 -21 38 22 15 2 43 54 91 -76 142 54 22 -21 38 18 143 6 24 -21 38 26 141 21 26 -21 36 48 144 37 27 -21 38 58 0.73
142 57 6 -20 58 26 15 2 57 54 92 -76 142 51 7 -20 58 22 143 3 5 -20 58 30 141 18 35 -20 56 52 144 33 44 -20 59 1 0.73
142 53 27 -20 18 29 15 3 11 54 93 -77 142 47 29 -20 18 24 142 59 24 -20 18 32 141 15 21 -20 16 54 144 29 40 -20 19 4 0.73
142 49 26 -19 38 30 15 3 25 54 94 -77 142 43 30 -19 38 26 142 55 22 -19 38 34 141 11 44 -19 36 55 144 25 16 -19 39 6 0.73
142 45 4 -18 58 30 15 3 39 53 95 -78 142 39 9 -18 58 26 142 50 58 -18 58 34 141 7 44 -18 56 55 144 20 32 -18 59 6 0.73
142 40 20 -18 18 28 15 3 53 53 96 -78 142 34 27 -18 18 24 142 46 14 -18 18 32 141 3 21 -18 16 53 144 15 28 -18 19 5 0.73
142 35 16 -17 38 24 15 4 7 53 96 -79 142 29 23 -17 38 20 142 41 8 -17 38 28 140 58 35 -17 36 48 144 10 5 -17 39 2 0.73
142 29 50 -16 58 18 15 4 21 53 97 -79 142 23 59 -16 58 13 142 35 41 -16 58 22 140 53 28 -16 56 40 144 4 21 -16 58 57 0.72
142 24 4 -16 18 8 15 4 36 53 98 -79 142 18 14 -16 18 4 142 29 54 -16 18 13 140 47 58 -16 16 29 143 58 18 -16 18 49 0.72
142 17 57 -15 37 56 15 4 50 53 99 -80 142 12 7 -15 37 52 142 23 46 -15 38 0 140 42 6 -15 36 15 143 51 56 -15 38 38 0.72
142 11 29 -14 57 40 15 5 4 53 100 -80 142 5 40 -14 57 36 142 17 17 -14 57 44 140 35 52 -14 55 57 143 45 14 -14 58 24 0.72
142 4 40 -14 17 20 15 5 18 53 101 -81 141 58 52 -14 17 16 142 10 28 -14 17 25 140 29 16 -14 15 36 143 38 12 -14 18 7 0.72
141 57 31 -13 36 56 15 5 32 52 102 -81 141 51 43 -13 36 51 142 3 17 -13 37 1 140 22 17 -13 35 9 143 30 51 -13 37 45 0.72
141 50 0 -12 56 27 15 5 46 52 103 -81 141 44 14 -12 56 22 141 55 46 -12 56 32 140 14 57 -12 54 38 143 23 10 -12 57 19 0.72
141 42 9 -12 15 54 15 6 0 52 103 -82 141 36 23 -12 15 49 141 47 54 -12 15 59 140 7 14 -12 14 1 143 15 10 -12 16 48 0.71
141 33 56 -11 35 15 15 6 14 52 104 -82 141 28 10 -11 35 9 141 39 41 -11 35 20 139 59 8 -11 33 19 143 6 49 -11 36 12 0.71
141 25 22 -10 54 30 15 6 28 52 105 -82 141 19 37 -10 54 24 141 31 7 -10 54 35 139 50 40 -10 52 30 142 58 9 -10 55 30 0.71
141 16 26 -10 13 38 15 6 42 51 106 -82 141 10 41 -10 13 33 141 22 11 -10 13 44 139 41 49 -10 11 35 142 49 8 -10 14 42 0.71
Uncertainty in time = +/- 25 secs
Prediction of 2019 Feb 15.0
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