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Updated: 2018 Dec 19, 16:50 UT
Event Rank : 70
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Apr 08 UT, the 49 km diameter asteroid (926) Imhilde will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across western West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.27 mag to 15.01 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-301-160527 by 926 Imhilde on 2019 Apr 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
111 40 29 -19 4 45 17 4 54 30 114 -76 112 2 48 -19 4 23 111 17 57 -19 4 58 112 33 23 -19 3 40 110 46 21 -19 5 3 0.84
112 16 21 -19 52 8 17 5 0 31 114 -75 112 38 27 -19 51 33 111 54 3 -19 52 35 113 8 43 -19 50 32 111 22 49 -19 52 58 0.84
112 51 0 -20 38 43 17 5 6 32 113 -74 113 12 53 -20 37 56 112 28 54 -20 39 22 113 42 53 -20 36 40 111 57 58 -20 40 4 0.84
113 24 31 -21 24 35 17 5 12 33 113 -73 113 46 14 -21 23 37 113 2 36 -21 25 26 114 16 1 -21 22 6 112 31 56 -21 26 24 0.84
113 57 0 -22 9 47 17 5 19 34 112 -72 114 18 34 -22 8 39 113 35 15 -22 10 49 114 48 9 -22 6 53 113 4 49 -22 12 2 0.84
114 28 33 -22 54 23 17 5 25 34 112 -71 114 49 59 -22 53 5 114 6 56 -22 55 34 115 19 24 -22 51 6 113 36 41 -22 57 2 0.84
114 59 13 -23 38 24 17 5 31 35 111 -71 115 20 33 -23 36 57 114 37 43 -23 39 45 115 49 49 -23 34 46 114 7 38 -23 41 26 0.84
115 29 4 -24 21 54 17 5 37 36 111 -70 115 50 19 -24 20 18 115 7 40 -24 23 24 116 19 28 -24 17 56 114 37 44 -24 25 17 0.84
115 58 10 -25 4 55 17 5 43 36 110 -69 116 19 20 -25 3 11 115 36 51 -25 6 33 116 48 23 -25 0 37 115 7 2 -25 8 38 0.84
116 26 34 -25 47 28 17 5 49 37 109 -68 116 47 41 -25 45 37 116 5 19 -25 49 14 117 16 39 -25 42 53 115 35 36 -25 51 31 0.84
116 54 19 -26 29 36 17 5 55 38 109 -67 117 15 23 -26 27 38 116 33 7 -26 31 30 117 44 17 -26 24 43 116 3 28 -26 33 57 0.84
117 21 27 -27 11 21 17 6 2 38 108 -66 117 42 28 -27 9 15 117 0 17 -27 13 21 118 11 20 -27 6 11 116 30 42 -27 15 59 0.84
117 48 1 -27 52 43 17 6 8 39 107 -66 118 9 0 -27 50 31 117 26 52 -27 54 50 118 37 50 -27 47 18 116 57 19 -27 57 37 0.84
118 14 2 -28 33 45 17 6 14 39 107 -65 118 35 1 -28 31 26 117 52 54 -28 35 59 119 3 50 -28 28 4 117 23 23 -28 38 55 0.84
118 39 32 -29 14 27 17 6 20 40 106 -64 119 0 31 -29 12 2 118 18 25 -29 16 47 119 29 20 -29 8 32 117 48 54 -29 19 52 0.84
119 4 34 -29 54 51 17 6 26 41 105 -63 119 25 33 -29 52 20 118 43 26 -29 57 17 119 54 23 -29 48 42 118 13 56 -30 0 31 0.84
119 29 9 -30 34 58 17 6 32 41 105 -63 119 50 9 -30 32 21 119 8 0 -30 37 30 120 19 0 -30 28 35 118 38 29 -30 40 52 0.84
119 53 18 -31 14 49 17 6 38 42 104 -62 120 14 20 -31 12 6 119 32 8 -31 17 27 120 43 14 -31 8 13 119 2 35 -31 20 56 0.84
120 17 4 -31 54 25 17 6 45 42 103 -61 120 38 7 -31 51 37 119 55 52 -31 57 8 121 7 4 -31 47 36 119 26 15 -32 0 45 0.84
120 40 26 -32 33 47 17 6 51 43 103 -60 121 1 33 -32 30 53 120 19 12 -32 36 35 121 30 32 -32 26 45 119 49 32 -32 40 20 0.84
121 3 27 -33 12 55 17 6 57 43 102 -60 121 24 37 -33 9 57 120 42 10 -33 15 49 121 53 41 -33 5 42 120 12 26 -33 19 41 0.84
121 26 8 -33 51 52 17 7 3 44 101 -59 121 47 21 -33 48 48 121 4 47 -33 54 50 122 16 29 -33 44 26 120 34 59 -33 58 50 0.84
121 48 29 -34 30 36 17 7 9 44 100 -58 122 9 46 -34 27 28 121 27 4 -34 33 40 122 39 0 -34 22 59 120 57 11 -34 37 46 0.84
122 10 32 -35 9 10 17 7 15 44 100 -57 122 31 53 -35 5 57 121 49 3 -35 12 18 123 1 13 -35 1 22 121 19 3 -35 16 31 0.84
122 32 18 -35 47 34 17 7 21 45 99 -57 122 53 44 -35 44 16 122 10 44 -35 50 47 123 23 11 -35 39 34 121 40 37 -35 55 6 0.84
122 53 47 -36 25 48 17 7 28 45 98 -56 123 15 18 -36 22 26 122 32 8 -36 29 6 123 44 52 -36 17 38 122 1 54 -36 33 32 0.84
123 15 1 -37 3 53 17 7 34 46 97 -55 123 36 37 -37 0 26 122 53 16 -37 7 15 124 6 19 -36 55 32 122 22 54 -37 11 48 0.84
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2018 Dec 19.0
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