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Updated: 2018 DEC 08, 03:44 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Mar 03 UT, the 572.3 km diameter asteroid (2) Pallas will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a broad path across Western Australia, including the coast near Bunbury and from a little north of Perth to a little west of Dampier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.11 mag to 8.17 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 34.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
111 59 6 -39 3 31 19 38 0 45 7 -29 108 39 43 -39 0 9 115 17 41 -39 8 11 108 24 35 -38 59 57 115 32 41 -39 8 35 -0.07
112 4 12 -37 58 3 19 38 6 46 7 -30 108 47 51 -37 54 42 115 19 48 -38 2 40 108 32 57 -37 54 30 115 34 35 -38 3 4 -0.07
112 8 56 -36 53 45 19 38 11 47 7 -30 108 55 24 -36 50 25 115 21 45 -36 58 19 108 40 43 -36 50 13 115 36 19 -36 58 42 -0.07
112 13 19 -35 50 33 19 38 16 48 7 -31 109 2 24 -35 47 13 115 23 33 -35 55 3 108 47 55 -35 47 1 115 37 55 -35 55 26 -0.07
112 17 24 -34 48 20 19 38 22 49 8 -31 109 8 56 -34 45 1 115 25 12 -34 52 48 108 54 38 -34 44 49 115 39 24 -34 53 11 -0.07
112 21 11 -33 47 4 19 38 27 50 8 -32 109 15 1 -33 43 46 115 26 44 -33 51 30 109 0 54 -33 43 34 115 40 45 -33 51 52 -0.07
112 24 43 -32 46 42 19 38 32 51 8 -33 109 20 42 -32 43 24 115 28 8 -32 51 4 109 6 44 -32 43 12 115 42 0 -32 51 27 -0.07
112 28 1 -31 47 8 19 38 37 52 8 -33 109 26 0 -31 43 51 115 29 27 -31 51 29 109 12 12 -31 43 39 115 43 9 -31 51 51 -0.07
112 31 6 -30 48 22 19 38 43 53 8 -34 109 30 59 -30 45 6 115 30 39 -30 52 40 109 17 19 -30 44 53 115 44 13 -30 53 2 -0.07
112 33 59 -29 50 19 19 38 48 54 8 -34 109 35 38 -29 47 3 115 31 46 -29 54 35 109 22 7 -29 46 51 115 45 12 -29 54 57 -0.07
112 36 40 -28 52 58 19 38 53 55 8 -34 109 40 0 -28 49 43 115 32 48 -28 57 12 109 26 36 -28 49 30 115 46 6 -28 57 34 -0.07
112 39 11 -27 56 15 19 38 59 56 8 -35 109 44 5 -27 53 1 115 33 45 -28 0 28 109 30 49 -27 52 48 115 46 57 -28 0 49 -0.07
112 41 32 -27 0 9 19 39 4 57 8 -35 109 47 55 -26 56 55 115 34 38 -27 4 20 109 34 46 -26 56 43 115 47 43 -27 4 41 -0.07
112 43 44 -26 4 38 19 39 9 58 8 -36 109 51 32 -26 1 25 115 35 27 -26 8 47 109 38 29 -26 1 13 115 48 26 -26 9 9 -0.07
112 45 48 -25 9 40 19 39 14 59 8 -36 109 54 55 -25 6 27 115 36 13 -25 13 48 109 41 58 -25 6 15 115 49 5 -25 14 9 -0.07
112 47 44 -24 15 12 19 39 20 60 8 -37 109 58 5 -24 12 0 115 36 54 -24 19 19 109 45 14 -24 11 48 115 49 41 -24 19 40 -0.07
112 49 33 -23 21 15 19 39 25 61 8 -37 110 1 4 -23 18 3 115 37 33 -23 25 20 109 48 18 -23 17 51 115 50 15 -23 25 40 -0.06
112 51 14 -22 27 44 19 39 30 62 9 -37 110 3 52 -22 24 33 115 38 9 -22 31 48 109 51 11 -22 24 21 115 50 45 -22 32 9 -0.06
112 52 49 -21 34 41 19 39 36 62 9 -38 110 6 30 -21 31 30 115 38 42 -21 38 43 109 53 54 -21 31 18 115 51 13 -21 39 4 -0.06
112 54 18 -20 42 2 19 39 41 63 9 -38 110 8 58 -20 38 52 115 39 12 -20 46 3 109 56 26 -20 38 40 115 51 39 -20 46 24 -0.06
112 55 41 -19 49 47 19 39 46 64 9 -39 110 11 16 -19 46 37 115 39 39 -19 53 47 109 58 49 -19 46 25 115 52 3 -19 54 7 -0.06
112 56 58 -18 57 54 19 39 51 65 9 -39 110 13 26 -18 54 45 115 40 5 -19 1 53 110 1 3 -18 54 33 115 52 24 -19 2 13 -0.06
112 58 11 -18 6 23 19 39 57 66 9 -39 110 15 27 -18 3 14 115 40 28 -18 10 21 110 3 8 -18 3 2 115 52 44 -18 10 41 -0.06
112 59 18 -17 15 12 19 40 2 67 10 -40 110 17 21 -17 12 3 115 40 49 -17 19 9 110 5 5 -17 11 51 115 53 2 -17 19 29 -0.06
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2018 Dec 8.0
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