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Updated: 2018 Dec 08, 03:41 UT
Event Rank : 65
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Feb 27 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (1000) Piazzia will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across eastern Northern Territory and eastern South Australia, passing over Port Augusta, Kangaroo Island and near Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.83 mag to 14.99 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-254-067262 by 1000 Piazzia on 2019 Feb 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 15 16 - 9 53 30 16 1 28 40 134 -68 135 32 49 - 9 56 42 134 57 37 - 9 50 13 136 1 1 -10 1 41 134 29 0 - 9 44 42 0.65
135 27 5 -10 45 57 16 1 33 41 134 -67 135 44 36 -10 49 3 135 9 29 -10 42 46 136 12 43 -10 53 51 134 40 57 -10 37 26 0.65
135 38 15 -11 37 43 16 1 37 41 133 -66 135 55 44 -11 40 43 135 20 42 -11 34 37 136 23 48 -11 45 22 134 52 14 -11 29 27 0.65
135 48 49 -12 28 50 16 1 42 42 133 -66 136 6 17 -12 31 44 135 31 18 -12 25 50 136 34 18 -12 36 16 135 2 53 -12 20 49 0.65
135 58 49 -13 19 21 16 1 47 43 132 -65 136 16 15 -13 22 11 135 41 19 -13 16 26 136 44 15 -13 26 34 135 12 56 -13 11 34 0.65
136 8 15 -14 9 18 16 1 52 43 132 -64 136 25 41 -14 12 3 135 50 46 -14 6 28 136 53 40 -14 16 19 135 22 24 -14 1 44 0.65
136 17 10 -14 58 43 16 1 57 44 131 -63 136 34 35 -15 1 24 135 59 41 -14 55 58 137 2 34 -15 5 33 135 31 20 -14 51 21 0.65
136 25 34 -15 47 38 16 2 2 45 131 -62 136 42 59 -15 50 15 136 8 5 -15 44 57 137 11 0 -15 54 18 135 39 44 -15 40 27 0.65
136 33 29 -16 36 4 16 2 7 45 130 -62 136 50 55 -16 38 37 136 15 59 -16 33 27 137 18 56 -16 42 34 135 47 37 -16 29 3 0.65
136 40 55 -17 24 4 16 2 12 46 129 -61 136 58 23 -17 26 33 136 23 25 -17 21 30 137 26 26 -17 30 24 135 55 2 -17 17 12 0.65
136 47 54 -18 11 37 16 2 16 47 129 -60 137 5 23 -18 14 3 136 30 22 -18 9 7 137 33 29 -18 17 49 136 1 57 -18 4 55 0.65
136 54 27 -18 58 47 16 2 21 47 128 -59 137 11 58 -19 1 9 136 36 53 -18 56 19 137 40 6 -19 4 50 136 8 26 -18 52 12 0.65
137 0 34 -19 45 33 16 2 26 48 128 -59 137 18 6 -19 47 53 136 42 58 -19 43 9 137 46 18 -19 51 29 136 14 27 -19 39 6 0.65
137 6 15 -20 31 57 16 2 31 48 127 -58 137 23 50 -20 34 14 136 48 37 -20 29 36 137 52 7 -20 37 46 136 20 2 -20 25 38 0.65
137 11 32 -21 18 1 16 2 36 49 126 -57 137 29 10 -21 20 15 136 53 51 -21 15 42 137 57 31 -21 23 43 136 25 12 -21 11 49 0.65
137 16 25 -22 3 45 16 2 41 49 126 -56 137 34 6 -22 5 57 136 58 41 -22 1 28 138 2 32 -22 9 21 136 29 57 -21 57 39 0.65
137 20 54 -22 49 10 16 2 46 50 125 -56 137 38 38 -22 51 20 137 3 6 -22 46 55 138 7 10 -22 54 40 136 34 17 -22 43 10 0.64
137 25 0 -23 34 17 16 2 51 50 124 -55 137 42 48 -23 36 25 137 7 8 -23 32 5 138 11 26 -23 39 42 136 38 13 -23 28 23 0.64
137 28 42 -24 19 7 16 2 56 51 123 -54 137 46 35 -24 21 13 137 10 47 -24 16 57 138 15 19 -24 24 27 136 41 46 -24 13 18 0.64
137 32 2 -25 3 41 16 3 0 51 123 -54 137 49 59 -25 5 45 137 14 3 -25 1 33 138 18 51 -25 8 57 136 44 54 -24 57 57 0.64
137 35 0 -25 48 0 16 3 5 52 122 -53 137 53 1 -25 50 3 137 16 55 -25 45 54 138 22 0 -25 53 12 136 47 40 -25 42 20 0.64
137 37 35 -26 32 4 16 3 10 52 121 -52 137 55 41 -26 34 5 137 19 26 -26 29 59 138 24 48 -26 37 12 136 50 2 -26 26 29 0.64
137 39 48 -27 15 55 16 3 15 53 120 -52 137 57 59 -27 17 54 137 21 33 -27 13 51 138 27 15 -27 20 58 136 52 1 -27 10 23 0.64
137 41 38 -27 59 32 16 3 20 53 120 -51 137 59 56 -28 1 30 137 23 18 -27 57 30 138 29 21 -28 4 32 136 53 37 -27 54 3 0.64
137 43 7 -28 42 57 16 3 25 53 119 -50 138 1 30 -28 44 54 137 24 41 -28 40 55 138 31 5 -28 47 54 136 54 50 -28 37 31 0.64
137 44 13 -29 26 9 16 3 30 54 118 -50 138 2 43 -29 28 5 137 25 41 -29 24 9 138 32 27 -29 31 4 136 55 41 -29 20 46 0.64
137 44 57 -30 9 10 16 3 35 54 117 -49 138 3 33 -30 11 5 137 26 19 -30 7 11 138 33 29 -30 14 3 136 56 8 -30 3 50 0.64
137 45 19 -30 52 1 16 3 39 54 116 -48 138 4 2 -30 53 55 137 26 33 -30 50 2 138 34 8 -30 56 51 136 56 12 -30 46 43 0.64
137 45 18 -31 34 41 16 3 44 55 115 -48 138 4 8 -31 36 35 137 26 26 -31 32 43 138 34 26 -31 39 29 136 55 52 -31 29 25 -0.64
137 44 55 -32 17 12 16 3 49 55 114 -47 138 3 52 -32 19 5 137 25 55 -32 15 15 138 34 23 -32 21 58 136 55 9 -32 11 57 -0.64
137 44 9 -32 59 33 16 3 54 55 113 -46 138 3 14 -33 1 25 137 25 0 -32 57 36 138 33 57 -33 4 18 136 54 2 -32 54 19 -0.64
137 42 59 -33 41 46 16 3 59 56 112 -46 138 2 13 -33 43 38 137 23 43 -33 39 49 138 33 9 -33 46 30 136 52 31 -33 36 33 -0.64
137 41 26 -34 23 50 16 4 4 56 111 -45 138 0 48 -34 25 42 137 22 1 -34 21 54 138 31 58 -34 28 33 136 50 36 -34 18 38 -0.64
137 39 29 -35 5 46 16 4 9 56 110 -44 137 59 0 -35 7 38 137 19 55 -35 3 51 138 30 24 -35 10 29 136 48 16 -35 0 35 -0.64
137 37 7 -35 47 35 16 4 14 56 110 -44 137 56 48 -35 49 27 137 17 25 -35 45 40 138 28 27 -35 52 18 136 45 30 -35 42 24 -0.64
137 34 21 -36 29 17 16 4 19 56 109 -43 137 54 11 -36 31 9 137 14 29 -36 27 22 138 26 6 -36 34 0 136 42 19 -36 24 6 -0.64
137 31 10 -37 10 53 16 4 23 57 108 -42 137 51 10 -37 12 44 137 11 7 -37 8 57 138 23 21 -37 15 36 136 38 41 -37 5 41 -0.64
137 27 32 -37 52 22 16 4 28 57 107 -42 137 47 43 -37 54 14 137 7 19 -37 50 26 138 20 11 -37 57 5 136 34 37 -37 47 10 -0.64
137 23 28 -38 33 46 16 4 33 57 106 -41 137 43 49 -38 35 38 137 3 4 -38 31 49 138 16 35 -38 38 30 136 30 4 -38 28 32 -0.64
137 18 57 -39 15 4 16 4 38 57 105 -41 137 39 29 -39 16 56 136 58 22 -39 13 7 138 12 33 -39 19 49 136 25 4 -39 9 49 -0.64
137 13 57 -39 56 16 16 4 43 57 104 -40 137 34 42 -39 58 10 136 53 11 -39 54 19 138 8 4 -40 1 3 136 19 34 -39 51 0 -0.64
137 8 29 -40 37 24 16 4 48 57 102 -39 137 29 25 -40 39 18 136 47 30 -40 35 26 138 3 7 -40 42 13 136 13 34 -40 32 6 -0.64
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2018 Dec 8.0
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