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Updated: 2019 Jan 13, 01:05 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Feb 11 UT, the 200 km diameter asteroid (6) Hebe will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.14 mag to 9.46 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 25.5 seconds. This event will not be observable visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-514-017056 by 6 Hebe on 2019 Feb 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
121 26 59 -37 0 0 14 18 29 34 326 -33 122 45 12 120 9 47 122 57 33 119 57 46 -0.50
121 8 51 -36 0 0 14 18 39 35 326 -34 122 25 50 119 52 49 122 38 0 119 40 59 -0.50
120 51 48 -35 0 0 14 18 48 36 326 -34 122 7 38 119 36 53 122 19 37 119 25 13 -0.50
120 35 46 -34 0 0 14 18 58 37 326 -35 121 50 32 119 21 54 122 2 20 119 10 24 -0.50
120 20 44 -33 0 0 14 19 8 38 326 -36 121 34 28 119 7 51 121 46 6 118 56 30 -0.50
120 6 37 -32 0 0 14 19 18 38 326 -37 121 19 24 118 54 40 121 30 53 118 43 28 -0.50
119 53 24 -31 0 0 14 19 28 39 325 -37 121 5 16 118 42 20 121 16 36 118 31 16 -0.50
119 41 1 -30 0 0 14 19 38 40 325 -38 120 52 2 118 30 47 121 3 15 118 19 51 -0.50
119 29 28 -29 0 0 14 19 49 41 325 -39 120 39 41 118 20 1 120 50 45 118 9 11 -0.50
119 18 42 -28 0 0 14 19 59 42 324 -39 120 28 9 118 9 58 120 39 6 117 59 16 -0.50
119 8 40 -27 0 0 14 20 10 43 324 -40 120 17 25 118 0 39 120 28 15 117 50 3 -0.50
118 59 22 -26 0 0 14 20 21 44 323 -41 120 7 26 117 52 0 120 18 11 117 41 30 -0.50
118 50 46 -25 0 0 14 20 33 45 323 -42 119 58 13 117 44 1 120 8 51 117 33 37 -0.50
118 42 51 -24 0 0 14 20 44 46 323 -42 119 49 42 117 36 40 120 0 14 117 26 21 -0.50
118 35 35 -23 0 0 14 20 56 46 322 -43 119 41 52 117 29 56 119 52 20 117 19 43 -0.50
118 28 57 -22 0 0 14 21 7 47 321 -44 119 34 43 117 23 49 119 45 6 117 13 40 -0.50
118 22 56 -21 0 0 14 21 19 48 321 -44 119 28 14 117 18 17 119 38 31 117 8 12 -0.50
118 17 32 -20 0 0 14 21 31 49 320 -45 119 22 22 117 13 19 119 32 35 117 3 18 -0.50
118 12 43 -19 0 0 14 21 43 50 319 -46 119 17 8 117 8 55 119 27 17 116 58 58 -0.51
118 8 29 -18 0 0 14 21 56 50 319 -47 119 12 31 117 5 4 119 22 36 116 55 10 -0.51
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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