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Updated: 2018 OCT 07, 18:36 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Jan 19 UT, the 16.4 km diameter asteroid (433) Eros will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a narrow path across Australia, from Darwin across The Northern Territory and eastern South Australia to Mt Gambier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.23 mag to 9.13 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 53 44 -51 0 0 12 43 56 0 338 -16 147 46 8 148 1 19 147 40 39 148 6 49 ....
147 16 48 -50 0 0 12 43 55 1 339 -17 147 9 24 147 24 13 147 4 2 147 29 35 0.00
146 41 17 -49 0 0 12 43 55 3 339 -17 146 34 2 146 48 32 146 28 48 146 53 47 0.05
146 7 2 -48 0 0 12 43 54 4 340 -18 145 59 57 146 14 8 145 54 49 146 19 16 0.07
145 33 59 -47 0 0 12 43 52 5 340 -19 145 27 3 145 40 56 145 22 2 145 45 58 0.08
145 2 3 -46 0 0 12 43 51 6 341 -20 144 55 15 145 8 51 144 50 19 145 13 47 0.08
144 31 8 -45 0 0 12 43 49 7 341 -20 144 24 28 144 37 48 144 19 38 144 42 38 0.09
144 1 10 -44 0 0 12 43 46 8 341 -21 143 54 37 144 7 43 143 49 53 144 12 28 0.09
143 32 6 -43 0 0 12 43 44 9 342 -22 143 25 40 143 38 32 143 21 1 143 43 12 0.09
143 3 52 -42 0 0 12 43 41 10 342 -22 142 57 32 143 10 11 142 52 58 143 14 46 0.09
142 36 24 -41 0 0 12 43 37 11 342 -23 142 30 11 142 42 37 142 25 41 142 47 7 0.09
142 9 39 -40 0 0 12 43 34 12 343 -24 142 3 32 142 15 46 141 59 6 142 20 12 0.09
141 43 35 -39 0 0 12 43 29 13 343 -24 141 37 34 141 49 36 141 33 12 141 53 58 0.10
141 18 9 -38 0 0 12 43 25 14 343 -25 141 12 13 141 24 5 141 7 55 141 28 23 0.10
140 53 18 -37 0 0 12 43 20 15 343 -26 140 47 27 140 59 9 140 43 13 141 3 24 0.10
140 29 1 -36 0 0 12 43 15 16 344 -26 140 23 15 140 34 47 140 19 4 140 38 58 0.10
140 5 15 -35 0 0 12 43 10 17 344 -27 139 59 33 140 10 57 139 55 26 140 15 4 0.10
139 41 58 -34 0 0 12 43 4 18 344 -28 139 36 21 139 47 35 139 32 16 139 51 39 0.10
139 19 8 -33 0 0 12 42 58 19 344 -28 139 13 35 139 24 41 139 9 34 139 28 43 0.10
138 56 44 -32 0 0 12 42 52 21 345 -29 138 51 15 139 2 13 138 47 16 139 6 12 0.10
138 34 44 -31 0 0 12 42 45 22 345 -30 138 29 18 138 40 10 138 25 23 138 44 5 0.10
138 13 6 -30 0 0 12 42 38 23 345 -30 138 7 44 138 18 28 138 3 51 138 22 21 0.10
137 51 49 -29 0 0 12 42 31 24 345 -31 137 46 30 137 57 8 137 42 39 138 0 59 0.10
137 30 52 -28 0 0 12 42 23 25 346 -31 137 25 36 137 36 7 137 21 47 137 39 56 0.10
137 10 12 -27 0 0 12 42 15 26 346 -32 137 5 0 137 15 25 137 1 13 137 19 11 0.10
136 49 50 -26 0 0 12 42 7 27 346 -32 136 44 40 136 55 0 136 40 56 136 58 44 0.10
136 29 43 -25 0 0 12 41 58 28 346 -33 136 24 36 136 34 50 136 20 53 136 38 33 0.10
136 9 51 -24 0 0 12 41 49 29 346 -34 136 4 46 136 14 56 136 1 6 136 18 36 0.10
135 50 12 -23 0 0 12 41 40 30 347 -34 135 45 10 135 55 14 135 41 31 135 58 53 0.10
135 30 45 -22 0 0 12 41 31 31 347 -35 135 25 45 135 35 45 135 22 8 135 39 23 0.10
135 11 30 -21 0 0 12 41 21 32 347 -35 135 6 32 135 16 28 135 2 56 135 20 4 0.10
134 52 25 -20 0 0 12 41 11 33 347 -36 134 47 29 134 57 21 134 43 54 135 0 55 0.10
134 33 29 -19 0 0 12 41 1 34 347 -36 134 28 34 134 38 23 134 25 1 134 41 56 0.10
134 14 41 -18 0 0 12 40 50 35 348 -36 134 9 48 134 19 33 134 6 17 134 23 5 0.10
133 56 1 -17 0 0 12 40 39 36 348 -37 133 51 10 134 0 51 133 47 39 134 4 22 0.10
133 37 27 -16 0 0 12 40 28 37 348 -37 133 32 37 133 42 16 133 29 8 133 45 45 0.10
133 18 58 -15 0 0 12 40 16 38 348 -38 133 14 10 133 23 46 133 10 41 133 27 15 0.10
133 0 34 -14 0 0 12 40 5 39 348 -38 132 55 47 133 5 21 132 52 20 133 8 48 0.10
132 42 14 -13 0 0 12 39 52 40 349 -39 132 37 28 132 46 59 132 34 1 132 50 26 0.10
132 23 56 -12 0 0 12 39 40 41 349 -39 132 19 12 132 28 41 132 15 46 132 32 7 0.10
132 5 41 -11 0 0 12 39 28 43 349 -39 132 0 57 132 10 25 131 57 32 132 13 50 0.11
131 47 26 -10 0 0 12 39 15 44 349 -40 131 42 44 131 52 9 131 39 19 131 55 34 0.11
131 29 12 - 9 0 0 12 39 2 45 349 -40 131 24 30 131 33 54 131 21 6 131 37 19 0.11
131 10 57 - 8 0 0 12 38 48 46 350 -40 131 6 16 131 15 39 131 2 52 131 19 3 0.11
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2018 Oct 7.0
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