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Updated: 2018 NOV 24, 06:07 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Jan 19 UT, the 123.6 km diameter Jupiter Trojan asteroid (1867) Deiphobus will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a path across Australia, from Wyndam across eastern Western Australia and western South Australia to near Eucla, in morning twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.75 mag to 16.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
126 33 32 - 6 0 0 19 46 54 61 169 -25 125 59 48 127 7 16 125 8 50 127 58 10 0.05
126 40 12 - 7 0 0 19 47 0 62 169 -24 126 6 23 127 13 59 125 15 19 128 5 0 0.05
126 46 50 - 8 0 0 19 47 6 63 168 -24 126 12 57 127 20 42 125 21 47 128 11 49 0.05
126 53 28 - 9 0 0 19 47 13 64 168 -23 126 19 30 127 27 25 125 28 12 128 18 40 0.05
127 0 5 -10 0 0 19 47 19 65 168 -23 126 26 1 127 34 8 125 34 35 128 25 32 0.05
127 6 43 -11 0 0 19 47 25 66 168 -22 126 32 32 127 40 52 125 40 56 128 32 26 0.05
127 13 20 -12 0 0 19 47 31 67 168 -22 126 39 3 127 47 37 125 47 16 128 39 22 0.05
127 19 59 -13 0 0 19 47 38 68 168 -21 126 45 34 127 54 24 125 53 35 128 46 21 0.04
127 26 39 -14 0 0 19 47 44 69 167 -20 126 52 5 128 1 12 125 59 54 128 53 22 0.04
127 33 20 -15 0 0 19 47 50 70 167 -20 126 58 37 128 8 3 126 6 12 129 0 26 0.04
127 40 3 -16 0 0 19 47 57 71 167 -19 127 5 10 128 14 56 126 12 30 129 7 35 0.04
127 46 48 -17 0 0 19 48 3 72 166 -19 127 11 44 128 21 52 126 18 48 129 14 47 0.04
127 53 36 -18 0 0 19 48 10 73 166 -18 127 18 21 128 28 51 126 25 7 129 22 4 0.04
128 0 26 -19 0 0 19 48 16 74 166 -17 127 24 59 128 35 54 126 31 27 129 29 26 0.04
128 7 21 -20 0 0 19 48 23 75 165 -17 127 31 40 128 43 1 126 37 48 129 36 53 0.04
128 14 18 -21 0 0 19 48 30 76 165 -16 127 38 24 128 50 13 126 44 11 129 44 26 0.04
128 21 20 -22 0 0 19 48 36 77 164 -16 127 45 11 128 57 30 126 50 36 129 52 5 0.04
128 28 27 -23 0 0 19 48 43 78 163 -15 127 52 2 129 4 52 126 57 4 129 59 52 0.04
128 35 39 -24 0 0 19 48 50 79 162 -14 127 58 58 129 12 21 127 3 34 130 7 46 0.04
128 42 57 -25 0 0 19 48 56 80 161 -14 128 5 57 129 19 56 127 10 8 130 15 47 0.04
128 50 20 -26 0 0 19 49 3 80 160 -13 128 13 3 129 27 38 127 16 45 130 23 58 0.04
128 57 51 -27 0 0 19 49 10 81 159 -12 128 20 13 129 35 28 127 23 26 130 32 18 0.04
129 5 28 -28 0 0 19 49 17 82 157 -12 128 27 30 129 43 27 127 30 12 130 40 48 0.04
129 13 14 -29 0 0 19 49 24 83 154 -11 128 34 54 129 51 34 127 37 3 130 49 28 0.04
129 21 8 -30 0 0 19 49 30 84 151 -11 128 42 25 129 59 51 127 44 0 130 58 20 0.04
129 29 11 -31 0 0 19 49 37 85 146 -10 128 50 4 130 8 18 127 51 3 131 7 24 0.04
129 37 23 -32 0 0 19 49 44 86 139 -9 128 57 52 130 16 56 127 58 12 131 16 40 0.04
129 45 47 -33 0 0 19 49 51 86 128 -9 129 5 48 130 25 46 128 5 28 131 26 11 0.05
129 54 21 -34 0 0 19 49 58 87 110 -8 129 13 55 130 34 49 128 12 53 131 35 57 0.05
130 3 8 -35 0 0 19 50 5 87 82 -7 129 22 12 130 44 5 128 20 26 131 45 58 0.06
130 12 8 -36 0 0 19 50 12 86 55 -7 129 30 41 130 53 36 128 28 8 131 56 16 0.05
130 21 22 -37 0 0 19 50 18 86 36 -6 129 39 22 131 3 23 128 36 0 132 6 52 0.05
130 30 50 -38 0 0 19 50 25 85 25 -5 129 48 16 131 13 26 128 44 3 132 17 48 0.04
130 40 35 -39 0 0 19 50 32 85 17 -5 129 57 25 131 23 47 128 52 18 132 29 3 0.04
130 50 37 -40 0 0 19 50 39 84 13 -4 130 6 49 131 34 26 129 0 44 132 40 41 0.04
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2018 Nov 24.0
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