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Updated: 2018 NOV 24, 05:59 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Jan 10 UT, the 81.7 km diameter asteroid (478) Tergeste will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Corvus for observers along a narrow path across the North Island of New Zealand from kataia, close to Auckland, to Wellington.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.36 mag to 13.19 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
170 6 26 -30 12 33 13 27 5 35 88 -37 170 48 39 -30 5 33 169 23 27 -30 19 20 171 11 4 -30 1 42 168 59 58 -30 22 54 1.31
170 23 28 -30 44 40 13 27 11 35 88 -37 171 5 44 -30 37 35 169 40 27 -30 51 33 171 28 10 -30 33 40 169 16 58 -30 55 10 1.31
170 40 7 -31 16 46 13 27 17 35 87 -36 171 22 25 -31 9 35 169 57 2 -31 23 45 171 44 53 -31 5 38 169 33 31 -31 27 25 1.31
170 56 21 -31 48 50 13 27 23 36 87 -35 171 38 43 -31 41 34 170 13 13 -31 55 55 172 1 14 -31 37 34 169 49 39 -31 59 38 1.31
171 12 12 -32 20 54 13 27 30 36 86 -35 171 54 39 -32 13 32 170 28 59 -32 28 4 172 17 13 -32 9 29 170 5 23 -32 31 50 1.31
171 27 40 -32 52 57 13 27 36 36 86 -34 172 10 13 -32 45 30 170 44 21 -33 0 12 172 32 49 -32 41 25 170 20 42 -33 4 1 1.30
171 42 45 -33 25 0 13 27 42 36 85 -34 172 25 25 -33 17 28 170 59 20 -33 32 21 172 48 5 -33 13 20 170 35 37 -33 36 12 1.30
171 57 28 -33 57 4 13 27 48 36 85 -33 172 40 16 -33 49 26 171 13 55 -34 4 29 173 3 0 -33 45 15 170 50 8 -34 8 24 1.30
172 11 49 -34 29 7 13 27 54 37 84 -33 172 54 45 -34 21 25 171 28 8 -34 36 38 173 17 34 -34 17 11 171 4 17 -34 40 35 1.30
172 25 49 -35 1 12 13 28 0 37 83 -32 173 8 54 -34 53 25 171 41 58 -35 8 47 173 31 48 -34 49 8 171 18 2 -35 12 47 1.30
172 39 27 -35 33 18 13 28 7 37 83 -31 173 22 42 -35 25 26 171 55 26 -35 40 58 173 45 42 -35 21 7 171 31 24 -35 45 1 1.30
172 52 44 -36 5 25 13 28 13 37 82 -31 173 36 10 -35 57 28 172 8 31 -36 13 10 173 59 15 -35 53 7 171 44 23 -36 17 15 1.30
173 5 39 -36 37 34 13 28 19 37 82 -30 173 49 18 -36 29 32 172 21 15 -36 45 24 174 12 29 -36 25 8 171 57 0 -36 49 31 1.30
173 18 14 -37 9 45 13 28 25 37 81 -30 174 2 5 -37 1 38 172 33 36 -37 17 39 174 25 24 -36 57 12 172 9 14 -37 21 50 1.30
173 30 28 -37 41 58 13 28 31 37 81 -29 174 14 33 -37 33 47 172 45 36 -37 49 57 174 37 58 -37 29 18 172 21 6 -37 54 10 1.30
173 42 20 -38 14 14 13 28 37 37 80 -29 174 26 40 -38 5 58 172 57 13 -38 22 18 174 50 14 -38 1 27 172 32 35 -38 26 33 1.30
173 53 52 -38 46 33 13 28 44 38 79 -28 174 38 27 -38 38 12 173 8 29 -38 54 41 175 2 9 -38 33 38 172 43 42 -38 58 59 1.30
174 5 2 -39 18 55 13 28 50 38 79 -27 174 49 55 -39 10 30 173 19 22 -39 27 7 175 13 45 -39 5 53 172 54 26 -39 31 28 1.30
174 15 52 -39 51 20 13 28 56 38 78 -27 175 1 2 -39 42 51 173 29 54 -39 59 37 175 25 1 -39 38 12 173 4 48 -40 4 0 1.29
174 26 20 -40 23 49 13 29 2 38 78 -26 175 11 48 -40 15 16 173 40 3 -40 32 11 175 35 58 -40 10 34 173 14 46 -40 36 36 1.29
174 36 27 -40 56 23 13 29 8 38 77 -26 175 22 15 -40 47 45 173 49 49 -41 4 49 175 46 35 -40 43 1 173 24 21 -41 9 16 1.29
174 46 12 -41 29 1 13 29 14 38 77 -25 175 32 20 -41 20 18 173 59 13 -41 37 31 175 56 51 -41 15 32 173 33 33 -41 42 1 1.29
174 55 35 -42 1 43 13 29 21 38 76 -25 175 42 5 -41 52 56 174 8 13 -42 10 18 176 6 48 -41 48 8 173 42 21 -42 14 50 1.29
175 4 35 -42 34 31 13 29 27 38 76 -24 175 51 29 -42 25 40 174 16 50 -42 43 10 176 16 23 -42 20 49 173 50 45 -42 47 45 1.29
175 13 13 -43 7 24 13 29 33 38 75 -23 176 0 31 -42 58 28 174 25 3 -43 16 7 176 25 38 -42 53 35 173 58 44 -43 20 44 1.29
175 21 28 -43 40 23 13 29 39 38 74 -23 176 9 11 -43 31 22 174 32 51 -43 49 10 176 34 32 -43 26 27 174 6 18 -43 53 49 1.29
175 29 19 -44 13 27 13 29 45 38 74 -22 176 17 29 -44 4 23 174 40 15 -44 22 19 176 43 4 -43 59 25 174 13 26 -44 27 0 1.29
175 36 46 -44 46 38 13 29 51 38 73 -22 176 25 24 -44 37 29 174 47 13 -44 55 34 176 51 14 -44 32 29 174 20 8 -45 0 17 1.29
175 43 48 -45 19 55 13 29 58 37 73 -21 176 32 56 -45 10 42 174 53 44 -45 28 56 176 59 1 -45 5 39 174 26 23 -45 33 41 1.29
175 50 25 -45 53 20 13 30 4 37 72 -21 176 40 4 -45 44 2 174 59 49 -46 2 24 177 6 25 -45 38 57 174 32 10 -46 7 12 1.29
175 56 35 -46 26 52 13 30 10 37 72 -20 176 46 47 -46 17 30 175 5 26 -46 36 0 177 13 25 -46 12 22 174 37 28 -46 40 50 1.29
176 2 19 -47 0 31 13 30 16 37 71 -20 176 53 4 -46 51 5 175 10 34 -47 9 44 177 20 0 -46 45 55 174 42 16 -47 14 36 1.29
176 7 34 -47 34 18 13 30 22 37 71 -19 176 58 55 -47 24 48 175 15 12 -47 43 35 177 26 10 -47 19 36 174 46 34 -47 48 29 1.29
176 12 20 -48 8 14 13 30 29 37 70 -18 177 4 20 -47 58 39 175 19 19 -48 17 35 177 31 54 -47 53 25 174 50 19 -48 22 31 1.29
176 16 37 -48 42 18 13 30 35 37 70 -18 177 9 15 -48 32 39 175 22 54 -48 51 43 177 37 11 -48 27 22 174 53 32 -48 56 41 1.29
176 20 22 -49 16 32 13 30 41 37 69 -17 177 13 42 -49 6 49 175 25 56 -49 26 0 177 41 59 -49 1 29 174 56 9 -49 31 1 1.29
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 85 21 4 -73 34 29 ... .. .. .. .. .. 90 40 53 -75 26 56 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2018 Nov 24.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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