|
|
Updated: 2018 Oct 28, 22:22 UT
Event Rank : 75
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Dec 29 UT, the 60 km diameter asteroid (744) Aguntina will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a slightly uncertain path across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland, passing over Port Campbell, Ballarat, Bendigo, Swan Hill and Rockhampton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.67 mag to 16.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-459-002210 by 744 Aguntina on 2018 Dec 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
140 28 3 -45 0 0 11 13 47 40 333 -7 140 57 53 139 58 19 141 34 9 139 22 28 0.78
140 50 6 -44 0 0 11 14 2 41 332 -8 141 19 30 140 20 48 141 55 16 139 45 28 0.78
141 12 32 -43 0 0 11 14 18 42 331 -9 141 41 32 140 43 38 142 16 48 140 8 47 0.78
141 35 21 -42 0 0 11 14 34 42 330 -10 142 3 58 141 6 50 142 38 47 140 32 26 0.78
141 58 33 -41 0 0 11 14 51 43 329 -11 142 26 49 141 30 23 143 1 12 140 56 24 0.78
142 22 8 -40 0 0 11 15 8 44 328 -12 142 50 5 141 54 18 143 24 4 141 20 44 0.78
142 46 8 -39 0 0 11 15 24 44 327 -13 143 13 46 142 18 37 143 47 23 141 45 24 0.78
143 10 33 -38 0 0 11 15 42 45 326 -14 143 37 54 142 43 18 144 11 10 142 10 27 0.79
143 35 23 -37 0 0 11 15 59 46 325 -15 144 2 28 143 8 24 144 35 25 142 35 52 0.79
144 0 39 -36 0 0 11 16 17 46 324 -16 144 27 29 143 33 55 145 0 9 143 1 40 0.79
144 26 21 -35 0 0 11 16 35 47 322 -17 144 52 58 143 59 51 145 25 22 143 27 53 0.79
144 52 32 -34 0 0 11 16 53 47 321 -18 145 18 57 144 26 14 145 51 5 143 54 31 0.79
145 19 11 -33 0 0 11 17 11 48 320 -19 145 45 24 144 53 4 146 17 19 144 21 35 0.79
145 46 20 -32 0 0 11 17 30 48 318 -20 146 12 23 145 20 23 146 44 6 144 49 6 0.80
146 13 59 -31 0 0 11 17 49 49 317 -21 146 39 53 145 48 11 147 11 25 145 17 6 0.80
146 42 10 -30 0 0 11 18 8 49 315 -22 147 7 56 146 16 31 147 39 18 145 45 35 0.80
147 10 54 -29 0 0 11 18 27 49 314 -23 147 36 33 146 45 22 148 7 47 146 14 35 0.80
147 40 13 -28 0 0 11 18 47 50 312 -24 148 5 46 147 14 47 148 36 53 146 44 7 0.80
148 10 7 -27 0 0 11 19 6 50 311 -25 148 35 35 147 44 46 149 6 36 147 14 13 0.81
148 40 39 -26 0 0 11 19 26 50 309 -26 149 6 3 148 15 22 149 36 59 147 44 53 0.81
149 11 49 -25 0 0 11 19 46 50 308 -27 149 37 11 148 46 35 150 8 4 148 16 11 0.81
149 43 41 -24 0 0 11 20 7 50 306 -28 150 9 0 149 18 29 150 39 51 148 48 7 0.81
150 16 15 -23 0 0 11 20 27 51 304 -30 150 41 33 149 51 4 151 12 24 149 20 43 0.81
150 49 33 -22 0 0 11 20 47 51 303 -31 151 14 52 150 24 22 151 45 43 149 54 2 0.82
151 23 38 -21 0 0 11 21 8 51 301 -32 151 48 59 150 58 26 152 19 52 150 28 5 0.82
151 58 33 -20 0 0 11 21 29 51 299 -33 152 23 56 151 33 18 152 54 52 151 2 54 0.82
152 34 19 -19 0 0 11 21 50 51 298 -34 152 59 45 152 9 0 153 30 46 151 38 33 0.82
153 10 59 -18 0 0 11 22 11 50 296 -35 153 36 30 152 45 36 154 7 37 152 15 3 0.83
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2018 Oct 28.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]