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Updated: 2018 Oct 28, 22:21 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Dec 28 UT, the 92 km diameter asteroid (696) Leonora will occult a 6.8 mag star in the constellation Corvus for observers along a path across western Victoria, western New South Wales and South Australia at low elevation of around 15 degrees, passing over Horsham, Mildura and Broken Hill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.83 mag to 15.63 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 59068 by 696 Leonora on 2018 Dec 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 25 5 -22 44 26 14 47 37 3 102 -44 135 56 30 -23 26 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 137 50 0 -23 40 45 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.45
132 37 20 -23 16 44 14 47 39 4 102 -43 136 31 33 -23 50 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 138 18 40 -24 3 18 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.13
133 32 26 -23 45 16 14 47 42 5 101 -43 137 3 28 -24 14 18 ... .. .. .. .. .. 138 45 22 -24 25 27 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.29
134 18 13 -24 11 46 14 47 44 6 101 -42 137 32 48 -24 37 6 ... .. .. .. .. .. 139 10 22 -24 47 14 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.37
134 57 51 -24 36 56 14 47 46 7 100 -42 137 59 59 -24 59 26 128 52 23 -23 33 43 139 33 52 -25 8 44 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.42
135 33 2 -25 1 9 14 47 49 7 100 -42 138 25 18 -25 21 24 130 52 39 -24 16 50 139 56 3 -25 29 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.45
136 4 47 -25 24 39 14 47 51 8 100 -41 138 49 1 -25 43 3 132 0 42 -24 48 26 140 17 1 -25 50 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.47
136 33 46 -25 47 33 14 47 53 9 100 -41 139 11 18 -26 4 25 132 52 41 -25 16 30 140 36 55 -26 11 45 ... .. .. .. .. .. 3.49
137 0 27 -26 9 59 14 47 56 9 99 -41 139 32 19 -26 25 31 133 35 49 -25 42 39 140 55 49 -26 32 21 129 40 23 -25 1 57 3.50
137 25 12 -26 32 1 14 47 58 9 99 -40 139 52 11 -26 46 25 134 13 5 -26 7 32 141 13 48 -26 52 47 131 1 33 -25 36 37 3.51
137 48 15 -26 53 43 14 48 0 10 99 -40 140 11 0 -27 7 6 134 46 6 -26 31 30 141 30 57 -27 13 4 131 58 5 -26 5 50 3.52
138 9 48 -27 15 7 14 48 3 10 99 -40 140 28 51 -27 27 37 135 15 48 -26 54 46 141 47 18 -27 33 13 132 43 18 -26 32 36 3.52
138 30 2 -27 36 16 14 48 5 11 99 -39 140 45 49 -27 47 59 135 42 50 -27 17 30 142 2 55 -27 53 14 133 21 35 -26 57 52 3.53
138 49 4 -27 57 11 14 48 7 11 98 -39 141 1 57 -28 8 12 136 7 38 -27 39 46 142 17 50 -28 13 8 133 55 1 -27 22 5 3.53
139 7 2 -28 17 55 14 48 10 11 98 -39 141 17 19 -28 28 17 136 30 32 -28 1 39 142 32 5 -28 32 56 134 24 48 -27 45 32 3.53
139 23 59 -28 38 27 14 48 12 12 98 -38 141 31 57 -28 48 14 136 51 47 -28 23 12 142 45 43 -28 52 38 134 51 40 -28 8 23 3.54
139 40 1 -28 58 49 14 48 14 12 98 -38 141 45 54 -29 8 5 137 11 35 -28 44 29 142 58 46 -29 12 14 135 16 8 -28 30 45 3.54
139 55 12 -29 19 3 14 48 17 12 98 -38 141 59 12 -29 27 50 137 30 4 -29 5 31 143 11 14 -29 31 45 135 38 35 -28 52 42 3.54
140 9 34 -29 39 9 14 48 19 12 97 -37 142 11 54 -29 47 29 137 47 23 -29 26 19 143 23 10 -29 51 12 135 59 18 -29 14 18 3.54
140 23 12 -29 59 7 14 48 21 13 97 -37 142 23 59 -30 7 3 138 3 37 -29 46 57 143 34 35 -30 10 34 136 18 28 -29 35 37 3.54
140 36 6 -30 18 59 14 48 24 13 97 -37 142 35 31 -30 26 32 138 18 51 -30 7 23 143 45 29 -30 29 52 136 36 17 -29 56 41 3.54
140 48 21 -30 38 44 14 48 26 13 97 -36 142 46 30 -30 45 56 138 33 11 -30 27 40 143 55 54 -30 49 6 136 52 52 -30 17 31 3.54
140 59 57 -30 58 23 14 48 28 13 97 -36 142 56 58 -31 5 17 138 46 39 -30 47 49 144 5 52 -31 8 17 137 8 19 -30 38 9 3.54
141 10 55 -31 17 58 14 48 31 13 96 -36 143 6 55 -31 24 33 138 59 18 -31 7 50 144 15 21 -31 27 25 137 22 44 -30 58 36 3.54
141 21 19 -31 37 27 14 48 33 14 96 -35 143 16 23 -31 43 46 139 11 12 -31 27 44 144 24 24 -31 46 29 137 36 12 -31 18 53 3.54
141 31 8 -31 56 52 14 48 35 14 96 -35 143 25 23 -32 2 55 139 22 23 -31 47 31 144 33 1 -32 5 31 137 48 46 -31 39 1 3.54
141 40 25 -32 16 12 14 48 38 14 96 -35 143 33 55 -32 22 2 139 32 52 -32 7 12 144 41 13 -32 24 30 138 0 30 -31 59 2 3.54
141 49 10 -32 35 29 14 48 40 14 96 -34 143 41 59 -32 41 5 139 42 42 -32 26 47 144 49 0 -32 43 27 138 11 26 -32 18 55 3.54
141 57 23 -32 54 42 14 48 42 14 96 -34 143 49 37 -33 0 6 139 51 54 -32 46 17 144 56 22 -33 2 21 138 21 37 -32 38 41 3.54
142 5 7 -33 13 51 14 48 45 14 95 -34 143 56 49 -33 19 4 140 0 29 -33 5 43 145 3 21 -33 21 14 138 31 5 -32 58 21 3.54
142 12 21 -33 32 57 14 48 47 15 95 -33 144 3 36 -33 37 59 140 8 29 -33 25 4 145 9 55 -33 40 4 138 39 51 -33 17 55 3.54
142 19 6 -33 52 1 14 48 49 15 95 -33 144 9 58 -33 56 53 140 15 55 -33 44 20 145 16 7 -33 58 52 138 47 58 -33 37 24 3.54
142 25 23 -34 11 1 14 48 52 15 95 -33 144 15 54 -34 15 44 140 22 47 -34 3 33 145 21 56 -34 17 39 138 55 26 -33 56 48 3.54
142 31 12 -34 29 59 14 48 54 15 95 -32 144 21 27 -34 34 33 140 29 6 -34 22 42 145 27 21 -34 36 24 139 2 17 -34 16 7 3.54
142 36 34 -34 48 54 14 48 56 15 95 -32 144 26 35 -34 53 21 140 34 53 -34 41 48 145 32 25 -34 55 7 139 8 31 -34 35 21 3.54
142 41 28 -35 7 47 14 48 59 15 95 -32 144 31 19 -35 12 7 140 40 9 -35 0 50 145 37 6 -35 13 49 139 14 10 -34 54 32 3.54
142 45 56 -35 26 38 14 49 1 15 94 -31 144 35 39 -35 30 51 140 44 53 -35 19 49 145 41 24 -35 32 30 139 19 15 -35 13 38 3.53
142 49 57 -35 45 26 14 49 3 15 94 -31 144 39 36 -35 49 34 140 49 8 -35 38 45 145 45 21 -35 51 10 139 23 45 -35 32 41 3.53
142 53 32 -36 4 13 14 49 6 15 94 -31 144 43 9 -36 8 15 140 52 52 -35 57 39 145 48 55 -36 9 48 139 27 41 -35 51 41 3.53
142 56 41 -36 22 57 14 49 8 15 94 -30 144 46 19 -36 26 55 140 56 6 -36 16 30 145 52 7 -36 28 26 139 31 4 -36 10 37 3.53
142 59 23 -36 41 40 14 49 10 16 94 -30 144 49 5 -36 45 34 140 58 50 -36 35 18 145 54 58 -36 47 2 139 33 55 -36 29 30 3.53
143 1 40 -37 0 22 14 49 13 16 94 -30 144 51 28 -37 4 12 141 1 4 -36 54 4 145 57 26 -37 5 38 139 36 12 -36 48 20 3.53
143 3 30 -37 19 1 14 49 15 16 94 -29 144 53 27 -37 22 48 141 2 49 -37 12 48 145 59 32 -37 24 13 139 37 57 -37 7 7 3.53
143 4 54 -37 37 40 14 49 17 16 94 -29 144 55 3 -37 41 24 141 4 5 -37 31 29 146 1 16 -37 42 47 139 39 10 -37 25 51 3.53
143 5 52 -37 56 16 14 49 20 16 94 -29 144 56 15 -37 59 58 141 4 51 -37 50 9 146 2 38 -38 1 20 139 39 51 -37 44 32 3.53
143 6 24 -38 14 52 14 49 22 16 93 -28 144 57 3 -38 18 32 141 5 7 -38 8 46 146 3 37 -38 19 53 139 39 59 -38 3 11 3.52
143 6 29 -38 33 26 14 49 24 16 93 -28 144 57 27 -38 37 5 141 4 54 -38 27 21 146 4 13 -38 38 25 139 39 34 -38 21 47 3.52
143 6 7 -38 51 59 14 49 27 16 93 -28 144 57 27 -38 55 37 141 4 10 -38 45 55 146 4 27 -38 56 56 139 38 37 -38 40 21 -3.52
143 5 19 -39 10 30 14 49 29 16 93 -28 144 57 3 -39 14 8 141 2 57 -39 4 26 146 4 18 -39 15 27 139 37 7 -38 58 52 -3.52
143 4 3 -39 29 0 14 49 31 16 93 -27 144 56 14 -39 32 39 141 1 13 -39 22 55 146 3 45 -39 33 58 139 35 3 -39 17 21 -3.52
143 2 20 -39 47 29 14 49 34 16 93 -27 144 55 0 -39 51 9 140 58 57 -39 41 23 146 2 49 -39 52 28 139 32 26 -39 35 47 -3.52
143 0 9 -40 5 57 14 49 36 16 93 -27 144 53 21 -40 9 38 140 56 11 -39 59 49 146 1 29 -40 10 58 139 29 15 -39 54 11 -3.52
142 57 29 -40 24 24 14 49 38 16 93 -26 144 51 16 -40 28 7 140 52 53 -40 18 13 145 59 44 -40 29 27 139 25 29 -40 12 33 -3.52
142 54 21 -40 42 50 14 49 41 16 93 -26 144 48 45 -40 46 35 140 49 3 -40 36 35 145 57 35 -40 47 57 139 21 9 -40 30 52 -3.52
142 50 43 -41 1 14 14 49 43 16 93 -26 144 45 47 -41 5 2 140 44 39 -40 54 55 145 55 1 -41 6 25 139 16 12 -40 49 8 -3.52
142 46 36 -41 19 37 14 49 45 16 93 -25 144 42 23 -41 23 29 140 39 43 -41 13 13 145 52 2 -41 24 54 139 10 39 -41 7 22 -3.52
142 41 58 -41 38 0 14 49 48 16 93 -25 144 38 31 -41 41 55 140 34 12 -41 31 30 145 48 37 -41 43 22 139 4 29 -41 25 34 -3.51
142 36 49 -41 56 20 14 49 50 16 93 -25 144 34 11 -42 0 21 140 28 6 -41 49 44 145 44 45 -42 1 49 138 57 40 -41 43 42 -3.51
142 31 9 -42 14 40 14 49 52 16 93 -25 144 29 22 -42 18 45 140 21 25 -42 7 56 145 40 26 -42 20 17 138 50 12 -42 1 48 -3.51
142 24 56 -42 32 58 14 49 55 16 93 -24 144 24 4 -42 37 10 140 14 7 -42 26 7 145 35 40 -42 38 44 138 42 5 -42 19 51 -3.51
142 18 9 -42 51 15 14 49 57 16 93 -24 144 18 16 -42 55 33 140 6 11 -42 44 14 145 30 25 -42 57 11 138 33 15 -42 37 51 -3.51
142 10 49 -43 9 31 14 49 59 15 93 -24 144 11 58 -43 13 56 139 57 36 -43 2 20 145 24 42 -43 15 37 138 23 44 -42 55 48 -3.51
142 2 53 -43 27 45 14 50 2 15 93 -23 144 5 8 -43 32 18 139 48 22 -43 20 23 145 18 29 -43 34 3 138 13 28 -43 13 41 -3.51
141 54 21 -43 45 57 14 50 4 15 93 -23 143 57 45 -43 50 39 139 38 26 -43 38 23 145 11 45 -43 52 28 138 2 27 -43 31 31 -3.51
141 45 13 -44 4 8 14 50 6 15 93 -23 143 49 49 -44 8 59 139 27 48 -43 56 21 145 4 31 -44 10 53 137 50 39 -43 49 17 -3.51
141 35 25 -44 22 17 14 50 9 15 93 -22 143 41 19 -44 27 18 139 16 27 -44 14 16 144 56 44 -44 29 18 137 38 2 -44 6 59 -3.51
141 24 59 -44 40 24 14 50 11 15 93 -22 143 32 14 -44 45 37 139 4 19 -44 32 7 144 48 25 -44 47 41 137 24 34 -44 24 37 -3.51
141 13 51 -44 58 29 14 50 13 15 93 -22 143 22 32 -45 3 54 138 51 24 -44 49 55 144 39 31 -45 6 4 137 10 13 -44 42 10 -3.51
141 2 1 -45 16 32 14 50 16 15 93 -22 143 12 13 -45 22 9 138 37 40 -45 7 39 144 30 2 -45 24 27 136 54 56 -44 59 38 -3.51
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2018 Oct 28.0
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