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Updated: 2018 May 15, 17:49 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Dec 10 UT, the 79 km diameter asteroid (84) Klio will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Queensland, Northern Territory and West Australia, passing over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.28 mag to 12.25 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2896-01900-1 by 84 Klio on 2018 Dec 10
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
111 19 50 -37 0 0 14 2 21 7 30 -21 110 29 17 112 10 53 110 8 2 112 32 37 0.99
112 17 51 -36 0 0 14 2 19 8 29 -22 111 27 22 113 8 50 111 6 9 113 30 33 1.01
113 16 56 -35 0 0 14 2 16 9 29 -24 112 26 28 114 7 56 112 5 17 114 29 39 1.02
114 17 11 -34 0 0 14 2 13 11 28 -25 113 26 41 115 8 14 113 5 29 115 30 0 1.04
115 18 41 -33 0 0 14 2 9 12 27 -26 114 28 5 116 9 51 114 6 51 116 31 40 1.05
116 21 31 -32 0 0 14 2 5 13 27 -28 115 30 46 117 12 51 115 9 29 117 34 45 1.05
117 25 47 -31 0 0 14 2 0 15 26 -29 116 34 49 118 17 22 116 13 27 118 39 22 1.06
118 31 36 -30 0 0 14 1 55 16 25 -30 117 40 21 119 23 30 117 18 52 119 45 38 1.06
119 39 4 -29 0 0 14 1 49 17 25 -32 118 47 28 120 31 21 118 25 50 120 53 41 1.07
120 48 20 -28 0 0 14 1 43 18 24 -33 119 56 18 121 41 6 119 34 30 122 3 38 1.07
121 59 33 -27 0 0 14 1 36 20 23 -34 121 7 0 122 52 52 120 44 59 123 15 39 1.08
123 12 52 -26 0 0 14 1 28 21 23 -36 122 19 43 124 6 51 121 57 27 124 29 56 1.08
124 28 30 -25 0 0 14 1 20 22 22 -37 123 34 37 125 23 14 123 12 4 125 46 40 1.08
125 46 38 -24 0 0 14 1 11 24 21 -38 124 51 55 126 42 16 124 29 2 127 6 6 1.08
127 7 31 -23 0 0 14 1 1 25 20 -40 126 11 50 128 4 13 125 48 34 128 28 30 1.08
128 31 27 -22 0 0 14 0 51 27 19 -41 127 34 39 129 29 22 127 10 56 129 54 12 1.08
129 58 46 -21 0 0 14 0 40 28 18 -43 129 0 40 130 58 6 128 36 26 131 23 34 1.08
131 29 53 -20 0 0 14 0 28 29 17 -44 130 30 15 132 30 51 130 5 25 132 57 4 1.08
133 5 15 -19 0 0 14 0 15 31 16 -46 132 3 51 134 8 9 131 38 18 134 35 15 1.08
134 45 29 -18 0 0 14 0 1 32 15 -47 133 41 59 135 50 41 133 15 37 136 18 49 1.08
136 31 18 -17 0 0 13 59 46 33 13 -49 135 25 19 137 39 16 134 57 58 138 8 39 1.08
138 23 41 -16 0 0 13 59 29 35 12 -50 137 14 42 139 34 59 136 46 10 140 5 54 1.08
140 23 50 -15 0 0 13 59 11 36 10 -51 139 11 11 141 39 17 138 41 13 142 12 7 1.08
141 0 0 -14 42 46 13 59 6 36 10 -52 -14 7 31 -15 18 28 -13 52 45 -15 33 42 1.09
142 0 0 -14 15 2 13 58 56 37 9 -52 -13 40 3 -14 50 27 -13 25 23 -15 5 33 1.09
143 0 0 -13 48 19 13 58 47 38 8 -53 -13 13 36 -14 23 28 -12 59 3 -14 38 28 1.09
144 0 0 -13 22 39 13 58 38 38 7 -53 -12 48 10 -13 57 32 -12 33 43 -14 12 26 1.09
145 0 0 -12 58 0 13 58 28 39 6 -54 -12 23 45 -13 32 39 -12 9 24 -13 47 26 1.09
146 0 0 -12 34 21 13 58 19 39 5 -54 -12 0 20 -13 8 47 -11 46 4 -13 23 27 1.09
147 0 0 -12 11 43 13 58 9 40 4 -55 -11 37 55 -12 45 55 -11 23 44 -13 0 31 1.09
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2018 May 15.0
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