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Updated: 2018 AUG 12, 16:58 UT
Event Rank : 88
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Sep 01 UT, the 76 km diameter asteroid (892) Seeligeria will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a fairly broad path down the eastern coast of Australia from Fraser Island across south-eastern Queensland including western Brisbane, north-eastern New South Wales slightly inland, just including Sydney and Canberra and down the south-eastern New South Wales coast to Mallacoota in eastern Victoria..
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.18 mag to 15.26 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
155 30 35 -21 38 55 15 37 40 18 277 -58 156 40 35 -21 50 30 154 24 37 -21 27 21 157 46 21 -22 0 42 153 29 16 -21 17 8 2.60
155 14 27 -21 59 13 15 37 43 19 277 -58 156 23 56 -22 10 50 154 8 55 -21 47 37 157 29 7 -22 21 4 153 13 54 -21 37 22 2.60
154 58 50 -22 19 34 15 37 47 19 278 -58 156 7 49 -22 31 12 153 53 41 -22 7 56 157 12 29 -22 41 28 152 58 56 -21 57 40 2.60
154 43 40 -22 39 57 15 37 50 19 278 -58 155 52 14 -22 51 38 153 38 52 -22 28 17 156 56 25 -23 1 55 152 44 24 -22 18 0 2.61
154 28 59 -23 0 24 15 37 53 19 278 -59 155 37 9 -23 12 6 153 24 30 -22 48 42 156 40 54 -23 22 25 152 30 15 -22 38 22 2.61
154 14 44 -23 20 53 15 37 56 19 278 -59 155 22 33 -23 32 37 153 10 32 -23 9 9 156 25 55 -23 42 58 152 16 30 -22 58 48 2.61
154 0 56 -23 41 25 15 37 59 19 279 -59 155 8 27 -23 53 11 152 56 59 -23 29 39 156 11 28 -24 3 33 152 3 7 -23 19 16 2.61
153 47 34 -24 2 0 15 38 3 20 279 -59 154 54 48 -24 13 48 152 43 50 -23 50 12 155 57 31 -24 24 12 151 50 8 -23 39 48 2.61
153 34 37 -24 22 38 15 38 6 20 279 -59 154 41 37 -24 34 28 152 31 5 -24 10 48 155 44 3 -24 44 54 151 37 30 -24 0 22 2.62
153 22 5 -24 43 20 15 38 9 20 279 -59 154 28 52 -24 55 11 152 18 42 -24 31 28 155 31 5 -25 5 40 151 25 15 -24 21 0 2.62
153 9 58 -25 4 4 15 38 12 20 279 -59 154 16 34 -25 15 58 152 6 43 -24 52 10 155 18 35 -25 26 28 151 13 21 -24 41 41 2.62
152 58 14 -25 24 52 15 38 15 20 280 -59 154 4 42 -25 36 48 151 55 6 -25 12 56 155 6 33 -25 47 20 151 1 49 -25 2 25 2.62
152 46 55 -25 45 44 15 38 19 20 280 -59 153 53 16 -25 57 42 151 43 52 -25 33 46 154 54 59 -26 8 16 150 50 38 -25 23 12 2.62
152 35 59 -26 6 38 15 38 22 20 280 -59 153 42 15 -26 18 39 151 32 59 -25 54 38 154 43 51 -26 29 15 150 39 47 -25 44 3 2.62
152 25 26 -26 27 37 15 38 25 20 280 -58 153 31 39 -26 39 39 151 22 29 -26 15 34 154 33 11 -26 50 17 150 29 18 -26 4 57 2.63
152 15 17 -26 48 39 15 38 28 20 280 -58 153 21 28 -27 0 44 151 12 20 -26 36 34 154 22 57 -27 11 23 150 19 9 -26 25 55 2.63
152 5 31 -27 9 45 15 38 31 20 281 -58 153 11 41 -27 21 52 151 2 33 -26 57 38 154 13 9 -27 32 34 150 9 20 -26 46 57 2.63
151 56 7 -27 30 54 15 38 35 20 281 -58 153 2 19 -27 43 4 150 53 7 -27 18 45 154 3 48 -27 53 48 149 59 52 -27 8 2 2.63
151 47 6 -27 52 7 15 38 38 21 281 -58 152 53 22 -28 4 19 150 44 3 -27 39 56 153 54 52 -28 15 5 149 50 44 -27 29 11 2.63
151 38 28 -28 13 25 15 38 41 21 281 -58 152 44 48 -28 25 39 150 35 20 -28 1 11 153 46 22 -28 36 27 149 41 57 -27 50 24 2.64
151 30 13 -28 34 46 15 38 44 21 281 -58 152 36 39 -28 47 3 150 26 58 -28 22 30 153 38 19 -28 57 54 149 33 29 -28 11 41 2.64
151 22 21 -28 56 12 15 38 48 21 282 -58 152 28 55 -29 8 31 150 18 58 -28 43 53 153 30 41 -29 19 24 149 25 23 -28 33 2 2.64
151 14 51 -29 17 42 15 38 51 21 282 -58 152 21 34 -29 30 4 150 11 19 -29 5 20 153 23 29 -29 40 59 149 17 36 -28 54 27 2.64
151 7 44 -29 39 16 15 38 54 21 282 -58 152 14 39 -29 51 41 150 4 2 -29 26 52 153 16 43 -30 2 38 149 10 10 -29 15 56 2.64
151 1 1 -30 0 55 15 38 57 21 282 -57 152 8 7 -30 13 22 149 57 7 -29 48 28 153 10 24 -30 24 22 149 3 5 -29 37 30 2.65
150 54 41 -30 22 38 15 39 0 21 282 -57 152 2 1 -30 35 8 149 50 33 -30 10 8 153 4 31 -30 46 10 148 56 20 -29 59 8 2.65
150 48 44 -30 44 26 15 39 4 21 283 -57 151 56 20 -30 56 58 149 44 22 -30 31 54 152 59 4 -31 8 3 148 49 57 -30 20 51 2.65
150 43 10 -31 6 18 15 39 7 21 283 -57 151 51 4 -31 18 54 149 38 32 -30 53 43 152 54 5 -31 30 1 148 43 54 -30 42 38 2.65
150 38 1 -31 28 16 15 39 10 21 283 -57 151 46 14 -31 40 54 149 33 6 -31 15 38 152 49 33 -31 52 4 148 38 13 -31 4 30 2.65
150 33 16 -31 50 18 15 39 13 21 283 -57 151 41 49 -32 2 59 149 28 2 -31 37 37 152 45 28 -32 14 12 148 32 53 -31 26 27 2.66
150 28 55 -32 12 25 15 39 16 21 283 -56 151 37 51 -32 25 10 149 23 20 -31 59 42 152 41 52 -32 36 25 148 27 55 -31 48 29 2.66
150 25 0 -32 34 38 15 39 20 21 283 -56 151 34 20 -32 47 25 149 19 3 -32 21 51 152 38 44 -32 58 43 148 23 20 -32 10 36 2.66
150 21 30 -32 56 56 15 39 23 20 284 -56 151 31 16 -33 9 46 149 15 9 -32 44 6 152 36 6 -33 21 7 148 19 7 -32 32 48 2.66
150 18 26 -33 19 19 15 39 26 20 284 -56 151 28 40 -33 32 13 149 11 39 -33 6 26 152 33 57 -33 43 36 148 15 16 -32 55 5 2.66
150 15 48 -33 41 48 15 39 29 20 284 -56 151 26 32 -33 54 45 149 8 35 -33 28 52 152 32 19 -34 6 11 148 11 49 -33 17 28 2.67
150 13 37 -34 4 23 15 39 32 20 284 -55 151 24 54 -34 17 23 149 5 55 -33 51 23 152 31 12 -34 28 52 148 8 46 -33 39 56 2.67
150 11 54 -34 27 3 15 39 36 20 284 -55 151 23 45 -34 40 7 149 3 41 -34 14 0 152 30 37 -34 51 39 148 6 8 -34 2 30 2.67
150 10 39 -34 49 49 15 39 39 20 284 -55 151 23 7 -35 2 57 149 1 53 -34 36 43 152 30 35 -35 14 32 148 3 54 -34 25 10 2.67
150 9 54 -35 12 42 15 39 42 20 284 -55 151 23 0 -35 25 53 149 0 33 -34 59 32 152 31 7 -35 37 31 148 2 5 -34 47 56 2.67
150 9 38 -35 35 41 15 39 45 20 285 -54 151 23 26 -35 48 55 148 59 40 -35 22 27 152 32 14 -36 0 37 148 0 43 -35 10 48 2.68
150 9 53 -35 58 46 15 39 48 20 285 -54 151 24 25 -36 12 4 148 59 16 -35 45 28 152 33 57 -36 23 49 147 59 47 -35 33 46 -2.68
150 10 40 -36 21 57 15 39 52 20 285 -54 151 25 59 -36 35 19 148 59 21 -36 8 36 152 36 17 -36 47 8 147 59 19 -35 56 51 -2.68
150 11 59 -36 45 15 15 39 55 20 285 -53 151 28 8 -36 58 41 148 59 56 -36 31 51 152 39 16 -37 10 33 147 59 19 -36 20 2 -2.68
150 13 53 -37 8 41 15 39 58 19 285 -53 151 30 54 -37 22 10 149 1 3 -36 55 12 152 42 56 -37 34 6 147 59 49 -36 43 20 -2.68
150 16 21 -37 32 13 15 40 1 19 285 -53 151 34 19 -37 45 47 149 2 42 -37 18 40 152 47 17 -37 57 46 148 0 49 -37 6 44 -2.69
150 19 26 -37 55 52 15 40 4 19 285 -52 151 38 24 -38 9 30 149 4 55 -37 42 15 152 52 23 -38 21 33 148 2 20 -37 30 16 -2.69
150 23 9 -38 19 39 15 40 8 19 285 -52 151 43 10 -38 33 21 149 7 42 -38 5 58 152 58 14 -38 45 27 148 4 23 -37 53 55 -2.69
150 27 32 -38 43 33 15 40 11 19 285 -52 151 48 40 -38 57 20 149 11 5 -38 29 48 153 4 53 -39 9 30 148 7 0 -38 17 41 -2.69
150 32 35 -39 7 35 15 40 14 19 285 -51 151 54 56 -39 21 26 149 15 6 -38 53 45 153 12 22 -39 33 40 148 10 12 -38 41 35 -2.70
150 38 22 -39 31 45 15 40 17 18 285 -51 152 1 59 -39 45 41 149 19 46 -39 17 51 153 20 44 -39 57 59 148 14 0 -39 5 36 -2.70
150 44 53 -39 56 3 15 40 20 18 286 -51 152 9 53 -40 10 3 149 25 7 -39 42 4 153 30 2 -40 22 26 148 18 25 -39 29 46 -2.70
150 52 12 -40 20 30 15 40 24 18 286 -50 152 18 39 -40 34 35 149 31 10 -40 6 26 153 40 19 -40 47 1 148 23 30 -39 54 3 -2.70
151 0 21 -40 45 5 15 40 27 18 286 -50 152 28 21 -40 59 14 149 37 59 -40 30 56 153 51 39 -41 11 45 148 29 17 -40 18 29 -2.70
151 9 22 -41 9 49 15 40 30 18 286 -50 152 39 3 -41 24 3 149 45 34 -40 55 35 154 4 5 -41 36 38 148 35 46 -40 43 4 -2.71
151 19 18 -41 34 42 15 40 33 17 286 -49 152 50 46 -41 49 1 149 53 59 -41 20 23 154 17 42 -42 1 41 148 43 1 -41 7 47 -2.71
151 30 13 -41 59 44 15 40 36 17 286 -49 153 3 37 -42 14 9 150 3 16 -41 45 20 154 32 35 -42 26 53 148 51 3 -41 32 40 -2.71
151 42 10 -42 24 55 15 40 40 17 286 -48 153 17 38 -42 39 26 150 13 29 -42 10 27 154 48 49 -42 52 14 148 59 56 -41 57 41 -2.71
151 55 12 -42 50 17 15 40 43 17 285 -48 153 32 55 -43 4 53 150 24 39 -42 35 43 155 6 31 -43 17 46 149 9 41 -42 22 53 -2.71
152 9 26 -43 15 49 15 40 46 16 285 -48 153 49 34 -43 30 30 150 36 52 -43 1 9 155 25 48 -43 43 28 149 20 22 -42 48 14 -2.72
152 24 54 -43 41 30 15 40 49 16 285 -47 154 7 41 -43 56 17 150 50 10 -43 26 45 155 46 49 -44 9 21 149 32 3 -43 13 45 -2.72
152 41 44 -44 7 23 15 40 53 16 285 -47 154 27 23 -44 22 16 151 4 39 -43 52 32 156 9 42 -44 35 24 149 44 46 -43 39 27 -2.72
153 0 0 -44 33 27 15 40 56 15 285 -46 154 48 49 -44 48 25 151 20 23 -44 18 29 156 34 40 -45 1 39 149 58 37 -44 5 19 -2.72
153 19 51 -44 59 41 15 40 59 15 285 -46 155 12 8 -45 14 46 151 37 28 -44 44 38 157 1 55 -45 28 5 150 13 39 -44 31 22 -2.73
153 41 24 -45 26 8 15 41 2 15 285 -45 155 37 31 -45 41 19 151 55 59 -45 10 58 157 31 44 -45 54 42 150 29 59 -44 57 37 -2.73
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 165 57 34 -53 13 43 ... .. .. .. .. .. 161 45 57 -52 58 44 ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 168 56 43 -53 44 16 ... .. .. .. .. .. 163 27 9 -53 29 28 ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 165 35 16 -54 0 28 ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 168 39 34 -54 31 35 ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2018 Aug 12.0
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