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Updated: 2018 MAY 15, 17:00 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Jul 16 UT, the 139 km diameter asteroid (70) Panopaea will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Piscis Austrinus for observers along a path across Western Australia from Broome to Bridgetown, passing just east of Perth in early morning twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.33 mag to 11.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 24.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
122 26 34 -15 27 39 21 38 10 43 239 -10 123 18 2 -15 24 38 121 35 46 -15 30 4 123 31 52 -15 23 43 121 22 21 -15 30 37 0.66
122 7 53 -16 14 5 21 38 23 43 240 -10 122 59 18 -16 11 16 121 17 7 -16 16 19 123 13 7 -16 10 25 121 3 42 -16 16 49 0.66
121 49 43 -17 0 7 21 38 37 44 240 -11 122 41 7 -16 57 30 120 58 58 -17 2 10 122 54 55 -16 56 42 120 45 33 -17 2 37 0.66
121 32 4 -17 45 48 21 38 50 44 241 -11 122 23 28 -17 43 21 120 41 19 -17 47 40 122 37 16 -17 42 36 120 27 53 -17 48 5 0.67
121 14 55 -18 31 7 21 39 3 45 241 -12 122 6 20 -18 28 51 120 24 7 -18 32 50 122 20 8 -18 28 9 120 10 41 -18 33 12 0.67
120 58 14 -19 16 7 21 39 16 45 242 -12 121 49 41 -19 14 1 120 7 23 -19 17 41 122 3 30 -19 13 21 119 53 57 -19 18 1 0.67
120 42 0 -20 0 49 21 39 29 46 243 -12 121 33 30 -19 58 51 119 51 6 -20 2 14 121 47 20 -19 58 14 119 37 38 -20 2 31 0.67
120 26 13 -20 45 13 21 39 42 46 243 -13 121 17 48 -20 43 24 119 35 14 -20 46 29 121 31 39 -20 42 49 119 21 45 -20 46 45 0.67
120 10 52 -21 29 20 21 39 56 47 244 -13 121 2 32 -21 27 40 119 19 47 -21 30 29 121 16 24 -21 27 7 119 6 16 -21 30 42 0.67
119 55 56 -22 13 12 21 40 9 47 245 -14 120 47 42 -22 11 39 119 4 43 -22 14 13 121 1 36 -22 11 9 118 51 10 -22 14 24 0.67
119 41 24 -22 56 49 21 40 22 48 245 -14 120 33 18 -22 55 23 118 50 4 -22 57 43 120 47 14 -22 54 55 118 36 28 -22 57 52 0.68
119 27 16 -23 40 12 21 40 35 48 246 -14 120 19 19 -23 38 53 118 35 47 -23 40 59 120 33 17 -23 38 27 118 22 9 -23 41 7 0.68
119 13 31 -24 23 22 21 40 48 49 247 -15 120 5 44 -24 22 10 118 21 52 -24 24 2 120 19 44 -24 21 45 118 8 12 -24 24 8 0.68
119 0 9 -25 6 19 21 41 1 49 248 -15 119 52 32 -25 5 13 118 8 19 -25 6 53 120 6 36 -25 4 51 117 54 36 -25 6 58 0.68
118 47 10 -25 49 4 21 41 15 50 248 -15 119 39 44 -25 48 5 117 55 8 -25 49 33 119 53 51 -25 47 44 117 41 22 -25 49 36 0.68
118 34 32 -26 31 39 21 41 28 50 249 -16 119 27 20 -26 30 45 117 42 18 -26 32 2 119 41 29 -26 30 25 117 28 28 -26 32 3 0.68
118 22 16 -27 14 3 21 41 41 50 250 -16 119 15 17 -27 13 14 117 29 49 -27 14 20 119 29 31 -27 12 56 117 15 55 -27 14 20 0.68
118 10 22 -27 56 17 21 41 54 51 251 -16 119 3 38 -27 55 33 117 17 40 -27 56 29 119 17 55 -27 55 17 117 3 43 -27 56 28 0.69
117 58 49 -28 38 21 21 42 7 51 252 -17 118 52 20 -28 37 43 117 5 52 -28 38 29 119 6 41 -28 37 28 116 51 50 -28 38 26 0.69
117 47 38 -29 20 17 21 42 20 51 253 -17 118 41 25 -29 19 44 116 54 23 -29 20 21 118 55 50 -29 19 29 116 40 18 -29 20 16 0.69
117 36 47 -30 2 5 21 42 33 52 253 -17 118 30 51 -30 1 36 116 43 15 -30 2 4 118 45 22 -30 1 23 116 29 5 -30 1 59 0.69
117 26 17 -30 43 45 21 42 47 52 254 -18 118 20 40 -30 43 20 116 32 27 -30 43 40 118 35 15 -30 43 8 116 18 12 -30 43 34 0.69
117 16 8 -31 25 19 21 43 0 52 255 -18 118 10 50 -31 24 57 116 21 58 -31 25 9 118 25 30 -31 24 46 116 7 38 -31 25 2 0.69
117 6 19 -32 6 45 21 43 13 52 256 -18 118 1 22 -32 6 27 116 11 50 -32 6 32 118 16 8 -32 6 17 115 57 24 -32 6 24 0.70
116 56 52 -32 48 6 21 43 26 53 257 -18 117 52 16 -32 47 51 116 2 1 -32 47 49 118 7 7 -32 47 42 115 47 29 -32 47 40 0.70
116 47 45 -33 29 20 21 43 39 53 258 -19 117 43 32 -33 29 9 115 52 32 -33 29 1 117 58 29 -33 29 1 115 37 55 -33 28 50 0.70
116 39 0 -34 10 30 21 43 52 53 259 -19 117 35 10 -34 10 22 115 43 23 -34 10 7 117 50 14 -34 10 14 115 28 39 -34 9 56 0.70
116 30 36 -34 51 35 21 44 6 53 260 -19 117 27 10 -34 51 29 115 34 34 -34 51 9 117 42 21 -34 51 22 115 19 44 -34 50 57 0.70
116 22 33 -35 32 35 21 44 19 53 261 -19 117 19 33 -35 32 32 115 26 6 -35 32 7 117 34 51 -35 32 26 115 11 9 -35 31 54 0.70
116 14 52 -36 13 31 21 44 32 54 262 -19 117 12 19 -36 13 31 115 17 58 -36 13 1 117 27 44 -36 13 25 115 2 54 -36 12 47 0.70
116 7 32 -36 54 24 21 44 45 54 263 -20 117 5 28 -36 54 26 115 10 11 -36 53 52 117 21 0 -36 54 21 114 54 59 -36 53 38 0.71
116 0 35 -37 35 14 21 44 58 54 263 -20 116 59 0 -37 35 18 115 2 44 -37 34 39 117 14 40 -37 35 13 114 47 25 -37 34 25 0.71
115 54 1 -38 16 2 21 45 11 54 264 -20 116 52 57 -38 16 7 114 55 40 -38 15 25 117 8 45 -38 16 3 114 40 12 -38 15 10 0.71
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. -123 50 51 -57 0 5 ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2018 May 15.0
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