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Updated: 2018 Apr 27, 21:56 UT
Event Rank : 41
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Jun 24 UT, the 45 km diameter asteroid (3139) Shantou will occult a 7.9 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a significant uncertainty path across New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.52 mag to 15.39 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 83572 by 3139 Shantou on 2018 Jun 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
177 40 2 -43 39 55 7 15 10 36 81 -27 177 14 24 -43 47 14 178 5 20 -43 32 32 175 30 30 -44 15 15 179 41 43 -43 2 55 1.16
177 2 18 -43 11 4 7 15 15 35 82 -27 176 36 39 -43 18 16 177 27 38 -43 3 48 174 52 38 -43 45 48 179 4 8 -42 34 37 1.16
176 24 18 -42 42 7 7 15 19 35 83 -26 175 58 36 -42 49 12 176 49 40 -42 34 58 174 14 25 -43 16 14 178 26 18 -42 6 14 1.16
175 45 58 -42 13 3 7 15 24 34 83 -25 175 20 14 -42 20 0 176 11 23 -42 6 1 173 35 49 -42 46 32 177 48 12 -41 37 44 1.16
175 7 18 -41 43 51 7 15 29 34 84 -25 174 41 30 -41 50 41 175 32 47 -41 36 56 172 56 49 -42 16 42 177 9 48 -41 9 7 1.16
174 28 16 -41 14 31 7 15 34 34 85 -24 174 2 23 -41 21 13 174 53 49 -41 7 44 172 17 23 -41 46 43 176 31 5 -40 40 23 1.16
173 48 49 -40 45 2 7 15 38 33 86 -24 173 22 51 -40 51 37 174 14 27 -40 38 23 171 37 27 -41 16 35 175 52 2 -40 11 30 1.16
173 8 55 -40 15 24 7 15 43 33 87 -23 172 42 51 -40 21 51 173 34 39 -40 8 53 170 57 1 -40 46 16 175 12 35 -39 42 29 1.16
172 28 33 -39 45 36 7 15 48 32 87 -23 172 2 22 -39 51 54 172 54 24 -39 39 12 170 16 1 -40 15 45 174 32 44 -39 13 19 1.16
171 47 40 -39 15 36 7 15 52 32 88 -22 171 21 21 -39 21 46 172 13 39 -39 9 21 169 34 25 -39 45 2 173 52 27 -38 43 59 1.16
171 6 14 -38 45 25 7 15 57 31 89 -21 170 39 45 -38 51 26 171 32 21 -38 39 18 168 52 9 -39 14 6 173 11 40 -38 14 28 1.16
170 24 11 -38 15 1 7 16 2 31 89 -21 169 57 32 -38 20 53 170 50 28 -38 9 3 168 9 10 -38 42 54 172 30 22 -37 44 45 1.16
169 41 29 -37 44 22 7 16 6 30 90 -20 169 14 38 -37 50 5 170 7 57 -37 38 34 167 25 25 -38 11 27 171 48 30 -37 14 50 1.16
168 58 4 -37 13 29 7 16 11 30 91 -19 168 31 0 -37 19 2 169 24 44 -37 7 50 166 40 50 -37 39 43 171 6 1 -36 44 41 1.16
168 13 52 -36 42 19 7 16 16 29 92 -19 167 46 34 -36 47 42 168 40 47 -36 36 50 165 55 19 -37 7 39 170 22 53 -36 14 18 1.16
167 28 50 -36 10 51 7 16 20 28 92 -18 167 1 15 -36 16 3 167 56 0 -36 5 32 165 8 47 -36 35 15 169 39 1 -35 43 39 1.16
166 42 52 -35 39 4 7 16 25 28 93 -17 166 15 0 -35 44 4 167 10 20 -35 33 56 164 21 10 -36 2 28 168 54 23 -35 12 43 1.16
165 55 54 -35 6 56 7 16 30 27 94 -17 165 27 41 -35 11 44 166 23 42 -35 1 59 163 32 19 -35 29 15 168 8 53 -34 41 29 1.16
165 7 50 -34 34 24 7 16 34 26 94 -16 164 39 14 -34 38 59 165 35 59 -34 29 40 162 42 8 -34 55 35 167 22 27 -34 9 54 1.16
164 18 33 -34 1 26 7 16 39 26 95 -15 163 49 30 -34 5 48 164 47 7 -33 56 56 161 50 26 -34 21 24 166 35 0 -33 37 58 1.16
163 27 55 -33 28 1 7 16 44 25 96 -14 162 58 23 -33 32 8 163 56 56 -33 23 45 160 57 5 -33 46 39 165 46 26 -33 5 37 1.17
162 35 47 -32 54 4 7 16 48 24 96 -13 162 5 41 -32 57 55 163 5 20 -32 50 3 160 1 51 -33 11 14 164 56 38 -32 32 51 1.17
161 41 58 -32 19 32 7 16 53 23 97 -12 161 11 15 -32 23 5 162 12 7 -32 15 48 159 4 28 -32 35 6 164 5 28 -31 59 35 1.17
160 46 17 -31 44 21 7 16 58 23 98 -12 160 14 50 -31 47 34 161 17 7 -31 40 56 158 4 39 -31 58 7 163 12 47 -31 25 48 1.17
159 48 27 -31 8 25 7 17 3 22 99 -11 159 16 9 -31 11 17 160 20 5 -31 5 21 157 2 1 -31 20 10 162 18 25 -30 51 24 1.17
158 48 11 -30 31 39 7 17 7 21 99 -10 158 14 54 -30 34 6 159 20 43 -30 28 57 155 56 3 -30 41 6 161 22 7 -30 16 21 1.17
157 45 5 -29 53 54 7 17 12 20 100 -8 157 10 38 -29 55 53 158 18 42 -29 51 39 154 46 7 -30 0 40 160 23 40 -29 40 32 1.18
156 38 40 -29 15 1 7 17 17 19 101 -7 156 2 49 -29 16 27 157 13 34 -29 13 16 153 31 20 -29 18 35 159 22 44 -29 3 51 1.18
155 28 17 -28 34 46 7 17 21 18 101 -6 154 50 43 -28 35 33 156 4 45 -28 33 38 152 10 30 -28 34 26 158 18 55 -28 26 11 1.19
154 13 4 -27 52 53 7 17 26 16 102 -5 153 33 22 -27 52 52 154 51 28 -27 52 28 150 41 43 -27 47 37 157 11 43 -27 47 20 1.19
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2018 Apr 27.0
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