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Updated: 2018 FEB 01, 01:27 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Mar 28 UT, the 65.8 km diameter asteroid (859) Bouzareah will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a narrow path across Australia, from east of Esperence across eastern Western Australia to west of Wyndham.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.91 mag to 15.69 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
125 54 27 - 5 38 17 18 50 34 63 149 -43 126 12 44 - 5 38 10 125 36 8 - 5 38 22 126 40 8 - 5 37 53 125 8 36 - 5 38 22 0.24
125 58 29 - 9 4 24 18 51 34 66 146 -42 126 16 54 - 9 4 14 125 40 3 - 9 4 31 126 44 29 - 9 3 53 125 12 21 - 9 4 36 0.24
125 59 50 -12 26 2 18 52 34 69 142 -42 126 18 25 -12 25 49 125 41 13 -12 26 12 126 46 17 -12 25 25 125 13 13 -12 26 20 0.24
125 58 44 -15 44 8 18 53 34 72 136 -41 126 17 34 -15 43 53 125 39 51 -15 44 19 126 45 49 -15 43 26 125 11 29 -15 44 31 -0.23
125 55 20 -18 59 30 18 54 34 74 128 -40 126 14 31 -18 59 14 125 36 8 -18 59 43 126 43 15 -18 58 44 125 7 17 -18 59 57 -0.23
125 49 45 -22 12 51 18 55 34 76 119 -39 126 9 19 -22 12 34 125 30 9 -22 13 6 126 38 39 -22 12 2 125 0 42 -22 13 22 -0.22
125 41 59 -25 24 51 18 56 34 77 106 -38 126 2 2 -25 24 33 125 21 54 -25 25 7 126 32 5 -25 23 59 124 51 43 -25 25 24 -0.22
125 31 59 -28 36 7 18 57 34 78 92 -37 125 52 36 -28 35 48 125 11 20 -28 36 23 126 23 31 -28 35 13 124 40 17 -28 36 41 -0.22
125 19 36 -31 47 14 18 58 34 77 77 -36 125 40 54 -31 46 54 124 58 17 -31 47 30 126 12 50 -31 46 18 124 26 13 -31 47 48 -0.22
125 4 39 -34 58 47 18 59 34 76 64 -35 125 26 44 -34 58 27 124 42 31 -34 59 3 125 59 51 -34 57 51 124 9 15 -34 59 22 -0.21
124 46 45 -38 11 23 19 0 34 75 54 -34 125 9 47 -38 11 4 124 23 41 -38 11 39 125 44 19 -38 10 28 123 49 0 -38 11 56 -0.21
124 25 26 -41 25 40 19 1 34 72 45 -32 124 49 36 -41 25 21 124 1 15 -41 25 55 125 25 48 -41 24 46 123 24 52 -41 26 10 -0.21
124 0 0 -44 42 18 19 2 34 70 39 -31 124 25 30 -44 42 1 123 34 27 -44 42 31 125 3 42 -44 41 27 122 56 4 -44 42 44 -0.20
123 29 24 -48 2 2 19 3 34 67 35 -29 123 56 31 -48 1 47 123 2 14 -48 2 13 124 37 9 -48 1 16 122 21 24 -48 2 21 -0.20
122 52 7 -51 25 43 19 4 34 64 31 -28 123 21 14 -51 25 31 122 22 58 -51 25 50 124 4 52 -51 25 4 121 39 7 -51 25 52 -0.20
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2018 Feb 1.0
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[Observing Details]
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