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Updated: 2018 FEB 01, 01:24 UT
Event Rank : 91
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Mar 25 UT, the 63.2 km diameter asteroid (442) Eichsfeldia will occult a 8.6 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across central Australia, from Kununarra in northern Western Australia across western ntn and South Australia to east of Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.72 mag to 13.34 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 8 29 -46 25 7 16 23 52 44 45 -44 128 39 3 -46 26 48 129 37 46 -46 23 23 128 14 53 -46 28 10 130 1 34 -46 21 56 -0.56
129 41 6 -44 15 56 16 24 52 46 45 -46 129 13 3 -44 17 38 130 9 1 -44 14 11 128 50 1 -44 19 0 130 31 43 -44 12 45 -0.56
130 5 43 -42 9 54 16 25 52 47 46 -48 129 38 51 -42 11 37 130 32 28 -42 8 10 129 16 48 -42 13 0 130 54 14 -42 6 43 -0.56
130 23 47 -40 6 41 16 26 52 49 47 -49 129 57 55 -40 8 24 130 49 31 -40 4 56 129 36 42 -40 9 47 131 10 28 -40 3 29 -0.56
130 36 20 -38 5 57 16 27 52 51 48 -51 130 11 22 -38 7 40 131 1 12 -38 4 12 129 50 53 -38 9 2 131 21 27 -38 2 46 -0.56
130 44 14 -36 7 25 16 28 52 52 49 -53 130 20 2 -36 9 8 131 8 21 -36 5 41 130 0 11 -36 10 31 131 27 58 -36 4 15 -0.56
130 48 8 -34 10 52 16 29 52 54 51 -54 130 24 37 -34 12 34 131 11 34 -34 9 8 130 5 19 -34 13 57 131 30 39 -34 7 43 -0.56
130 48 32 -32 16 4 16 30 52 55 53 -56 130 25 37 -32 17 46 131 11 23 -32 14 21 130 6 49 -32 19 8 131 29 59 -32 12 56 -0.55
130 45 52 -30 22 50 16 31 52 56 55 -57 130 23 28 -30 24 31 131 8 11 -30 21 7 130 5 7 -30 25 53 131 26 21 -30 19 42 0.55
130 40 27 -28 30 58 16 32 52 58 57 -59 130 18 32 -28 32 39 131 2 18 -28 29 16 130 0 33 -28 34 0 131 20 6 -28 27 52 0.55
130 32 34 -26 40 20 16 33 52 59 59 -60 130 11 3 -26 42 0 130 53 59 -26 38 39 129 53 26 -26 43 21 131 11 27 -26 37 15 0.54
130 22 24 -24 50 47 16 34 52 60 62 -62 130 1 17 -24 52 26 130 43 28 -24 49 6 129 43 57 -24 53 47 131 0 38 -24 47 43 0.54
130 10 11 -23 2 10 16 35 52 60 65 -63 129 49 23 -23 3 49 130 30 55 -23 0 29 129 32 20 -23 5 9 130 47 48 -22 59 7 0.53
129 56 0 -21 14 21 16 36 52 61 67 -64 129 35 30 -21 15 59 130 16 27 -21 12 41 129 18 42 -21 17 19 130 33 6 -21 11 19 0.53
129 40 1 -19 27 14 16 37 52 62 71 -65 129 19 46 -19 28 52 130 0 12 -19 25 35 129 3 11 -19 30 11 130 16 39 -19 24 13 0.52
129 22 18 -17 40 41 16 38 52 62 74 -67 129 2 16 -17 42 18 129 42 15 -17 39 2 128 45 52 -17 43 37 129 58 31 -17 37 41 0.52
129 2 54 -15 54 36 16 39 52 63 77 -68 128 43 5 -15 56 13 129 22 40 -15 52 58 128 26 51 -15 57 31 129 38 46 -15 51 38 0.51
128 41 54 -14 8 53 16 40 52 63 81 -69 128 22 15 -14 10 29 129 1 30 -14 7 16 128 6 9 -14 11 47 129 17 27 -14 5 55 0.51
128 19 19 -12 23 26 16 41 52 63 84 -70 127 59 49 -12 25 1 128 38 46 -12 21 49 127 43 50 -12 26 19 128 54 37 -12 20 29 0.50
127 55 11 -10 38 7 16 42 52 63 87 -71 127 35 47 -10 39 43 128 14 30 -10 36 31 127 19 54 -10 41 0 128 30 15 -10 35 12 0.50
127 29 28 - 8 52 53 16 43 52 63 91 -72 127 10 11 - 8 54 28 127 48 42 - 8 51 17 126 54 23 - 8 55 44 128 4 23 - 8 49 58 0.49
127 2 12 - 7 7 36 16 44 52 63 94 -73 126 42 59 - 7 9 10 127 21 21 - 7 6 1 126 27 14 - 7 10 26 127 36 58 - 7 4 42 0.49
126 33 19 - 5 22 10 16 45 52 62 98 -73 126 14 9 - 5 23 44 126 52 26 - 5 20 36 125 58 26 - 5 25 0 127 8 0 - 5 19 17 0.48
126 2 48 - 3 36 30 16 46 52 62 101 -74 125 43 39 - 3 38 3 126 21 53 - 3 34 56 125 27 58 - 3 39 19 126 37 26 - 3 33 38 0.48
125 30 35 - 1 50 29 16 47 52 61 104 -74 125 11 26 - 1 52 2 125 49 40 - 1 48 56 124 55 45 - 1 53 17 126 5 13 - 1 47 38 0.47
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2018 Feb 1.0
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