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Updated: 2018 JAN 17, 15:38 UT
Event Rank : 91
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Feb 08 UT, the 94 km diameter asteroid (491) Carina will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Eridanus for observers along a path passing over south New Zealand passing near Ta Anau and Queenstown.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.26 mag to 14.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
158 43 6 -64 27 33 9 0 2 26 357 5 157 51 4 -63 56 58 159 37 15 -64 58 42 157 10 20 -63 32 34 160 22 49 -65 24 22 0.54
159 51 47 -62 8 25 9 0 15 28 355 4 159 2 46 -61 40 6 160 42 31 -62 37 9 158 24 13 -61 17 29 161 24 56 -63 0 46 0.54
160 52 20 -59 58 59 9 0 27 30 354 2 160 5 51 -59 32 29 161 40 14 -60 25 50 159 29 9 -59 11 15 162 20 8 -60 47 51 0.54
161 47 0 -57 57 19 9 0 39 32 353 1 161 2 40 -57 32 16 162 32 32 -58 22 38 160 27 34 -57 12 11 163 10 21 -58 43 22 0.54
162 37 15 -56 2 1 9 0 51 34 351 -1 161 54 45 -55 38 12 163 20 46 -56 26 5 161 21 2 -55 19 4 163 56 49 -56 45 45 0.55
163 24 3 -54 12 4 9 1 3 36 350 -2 162 43 9 -53 49 17 164 5 50 -54 35 4 162 10 39 -53 30 59 164 40 22 -54 53 50 0.55
164 8 7 -52 26 41 9 1 15 38 349 -3 163 28 37 -52 4 48 164 48 23 -52 48 45 162 57 11 -51 47 12 165 21 38 -53 6 46 0.55
164 49 58 -50 45 15 9 1 27 39 348 -4 164 11 43 -50 24 9 165 28 55 -51 6 31 163 41 14 -50 7 9 166 1 0 -51 23 52 0.55
165 29 59 -49 7 17 9 1 39 41 346 -6 164 52 51 -48 46 51 166 7 46 -49 27 50 164 23 13 -48 30 24 166 38 51 -49 44 36 0.55
166 8 31 -47 32 21 9 1 51 42 345 -7 165 32 22 -47 12 31 166 45 14 -47 52 17 165 3 30 -46 56 33 167 15 26 -48 8 32 0.55
166 45 46 -46 0 7 9 2 3 43 344 -8 166 10 31 -45 40 50 167 21 33 -46 19 31 165 42 21 -45 25 18 167 50 57 -46 35 18 0.55
167 21 58 -44 30 20 9 2 15 45 343 -9 166 47 32 -44 11 32 167 56 54 -44 49 13 166 19 59 -43 56 23 168 25 34 -45 4 35 0.55
167 57 16 -43 2 43 9 2 27 46 341 -10 167 23 34 -42 44 22 168 31 26 -43 21 10 166 56 35 -42 29 34 168 59 27 -43 36 10 0.55
168 31 49 -41 37 6 9 2 39 47 340 -11 167 58 47 -41 19 9 169 5 16 -41 55 8 167 32 19 -41 4 40 169 32 42 -42 9 48 0.55
169 5 43 -40 13 17 9 2 51 48 338 -13 168 33 18 -39 55 41 169 38 32 -40 30 56 168 7 19 -39 41 30 170 5 25 -40 45 17 0.55
169 39 6 -38 51 6 9 3 3 49 337 -14 169 7 14 -38 33 51 170 11 19 -39 8 25 168 41 42 -38 19 55 170 37 43 -39 22 30 0.56
170 12 1 -37 30 26 9 3 15 50 335 -15 169 40 41 -37 13 29 170 43 43 -37 47 26 169 15 33 -36 59 48 171 9 39 -38 1 15 0.56
170 44 35 -36 11 8 9 3 27 51 334 -16 170 13 44 -35 54 29 171 15 47 -36 27 52 169 48 58 -35 41 1 171 41 18 -36 41 26 0.56
171 16 51 -34 53 8 9 3 39 52 332 -17 170 46 26 -34 36 44 171 47 36 -35 9 35 170 22 1 -34 23 29 172 12 44 -35 22 57 0.56
171 48 54 -33 36 17 9 3 51 53 330 -18 171 18 53 -33 20 8 172 19 13 -33 52 30 170 54 47 -33 7 4 172 44 0 -34 5 40 0.56
172 20 46 -32 20 32 9 4 3 54 329 -19 171 51 8 -32 4 36 172 50 42 -32 36 31 171 27 19 -31 51 43 173 15 9 -32 49 30 0.56
172 52 31 -31 5 48 9 4 15 55 327 -20 172 23 13 -30 50 4 173 22 5 -31 21 34 171 59 42 -30 37 21 173 46 15 -31 34 22 0.56
173 24 12 -29 51 59 9 4 27 56 325 -21 172 55 14 -29 36 27 173 53 26 -30 7 34 172 31 57 -29 23 53 174 17 19 -30 20 12 0.56
173 55 52 -28 39 2 9 4 39 56 323 -22 173 27 11 -28 23 41 174 24 47 -28 54 26 173 4 9 -28 11 15 174 48 25 -29 6 56 0.56
174 27 33 -27 26 54 9 4 51 57 321 -24 173 59 9 -27 11 42 174 56 11 -27 42 7 173 36 19 -26 59 25 175 19 34 -27 54 29 0.56
174 59 18 -26 15 30 9 5 3 57 319 -25 174 31 9 -26 0 28 175 27 40 -26 30 34 174 8 32 -25 48 18 175 50 50 -26 42 48 0.57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2018 Jan 17.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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