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Updated: 2017 OCT 28, 19:30 UT
Event Rank : 53
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Dec 25 UT, the 34 km diameter asteroid (1039) Sonneberga will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a narrow path across Australia from near Weipa across northern Queensland, central Northern Territory and into southern Western Australia towards Geraldton at decreasing elevation, and across Papua - New Guinea near Morobe.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.30 mag to 15.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
150 28 29 - 2 22 24 14 5 6 37 80 -64 150 43 19 - 2 22 23 150 13 34 - 2 22 25 151 20 54 - 2 22 26 149 34 59 - 2 22 30 -1.09
150 0 22 - 3 19 28 14 5 54 37 80 -63 150 15 18 - 3 19 27 149 45 21 - 3 19 30 150 53 9 - 3 19 28 149 6 29 - 3 19 38 -1.08
149 30 51 - 4 16 47 14 6 41 36 79 -62 149 45 54 - 4 16 46 149 15 43 - 4 16 50 150 24 3 - 4 16 44 148 36 32 - 4 17 0 -1.08
148 59 52 - 5 14 22 14 7 29 36 79 -61 149 15 3 - 5 14 20 148 44 35 - 5 14 25 149 53 31 - 5 14 16 148 5 3 - 5 14 38 -1.07
148 27 20 - 6 12 14 14 8 17 35 78 -60 148 42 40 - 6 12 11 148 11 54 - 6 12 18 149 21 31 - 6 12 5 147 31 57 - 6 12 33 -1.07
147 53 10 - 7 10 25 14 9 4 35 77 -59 148 8 40 - 7 10 20 147 37 34 - 7 10 30 148 47 56 - 7 10 12 146 57 9 - 7 10 48 -1.06
147 17 16 - 8 8 56 14 9 52 34 77 -59 147 32 58 - 8 8 50 147 1 28 - 8 9 3 148 12 42 - 8 8 39 146 20 32 - 8 9 24 -1.06
146 39 32 - 9 7 49 14 10 40 33 76 -58 146 55 27 - 9 7 42 146 23 31 - 9 7 57 147 35 42 - 9 7 27 145 42 0 - 9 8 22 -1.06
145 59 50 -10 7 6 14 11 28 33 76 -57 146 15 59 -10 6 58 145 43 34 -10 7 16 146 56 49 -10 6 39 145 1 23 -10 7 45 -1.05
145 18 0 -11 6 50 14 12 15 32 75 -56 145 34 25 -11 6 39 145 1 28 -11 7 1 146 15 54 -11 6 17 144 18 33 -11 7 35 -1.05
144 33 52 -12 7 1 14 13 3 31 75 -55 144 50 35 -12 6 49 144 17 2 -12 7 15 145 32 49 -12 6 22 143 33 17 -12 7 54 -1.05
143 47 15 -13 7 44 14 13 51 30 75 -53 144 4 18 -13 7 30 143 30 3 -13 8 0 144 47 22 -13 6 57 142 45 23 -13 8 44 -1.05
142 57 54 -14 9 1 14 14 38 29 74 -52 143 15 20 -14 8 44 142 40 18 -14 9 19 143 59 21 -14 8 6 141 54 34 -14 10 10 -1.05
142 5 32 -15 10 54 14 15 26 29 74 -51 142 23 25 -15 10 34 141 47 30 -15 11 15 143 8 29 -15 9 49 141 0 33 -15 12 14 -1.04
141 9 49 -16 13 28 14 16 14 28 74 -50 141 28 12 -16 13 5 140 51 16 -16 13 52 142 14 29 -16 12 12 140 2 55 -16 15 0 -1.04
140 10 21 -17 16 46 14 17 2 27 74 -49 140 29 18 -17 16 19 139 51 12 -17 17 14 141 16 59 -17 15 18 139 1 15 -17 18 32 -1.05
139 6 38 -18 20 53 14 17 49 26 74 -48 139 26 15 -18 20 23 138 46 47 -18 21 26 140 15 33 -18 19 11 137 54 56 -18 22 56 -1.05
137 58 3 -19 25 56 14 18 37 24 74 -47 138 18 27 -19 25 20 137 37 23 -19 26 34 139 9 39 -19 23 56 136 43 17 -19 28 19 -1.05
136 43 47 -20 32 1 14 19 25 23 74 -45 137 5 9 -20 31 19 136 22 9 -20 32 45 137 58 35 -20 29 41 135 25 21 -20 34 47 -1.06
135 22 51 -21 39 16 14 20 13 22 74 -44 135 45 21 -21 38 27 135 0 0 -21 40 8 136 41 30 -21 36 31 133 59 53 -21 42 32 -1.06
133 53 49 -22 47 53 14 21 0 20 74 -43 134 17 44 -22 46 55 133 29 29 -22 48 55 135 17 14 -22 44 37 132 25 8 -22 51 47 -1.07
132 14 44 -23 58 8 14 21 48 19 74 -41 132 40 29 -23 56 57 131 48 27 -23 59 22 133 44 14 -23 54 12 130 38 34 -24 2 51 -1.08
130 22 41 -25 10 21 14 22 36 17 75 -40 130 50 54 -25 8 54 129 53 47 -25 11 53 132 0 16 -25 5 32 128 36 13 -25 16 12 -1.10
128 13 0 -26 25 6 14 23 23 15 75 -38 128 44 43 -26 23 16 127 40 16 -26 27 3 130 1 55 -26 19 2 126 11 6 -26 32 39 -1.12
125 37 5 -27 43 24 14 24 11 12 76 -36 126 14 24 -27 40 57 124 58 6 -27 46 2 127 43 32 -27 35 24 123 8 35 -27 53 53 -1.16
122 15 34 -29 7 24 14 24 59 9 77 -34 123 3 46 -29 3 45 121 23 30 -29 11 29 124 54 17 -28 55 51 118 42 55 -29 24 57 -1.25
116 50 46 -30 45 43 14 25 47 5 80 -30 118 18 59 -30 37 40 114 47 3 -30 57 39 121 6 45 -30 23 28 ... .. .. .. .. .. -1.66
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 112 44 38 -32 22 0 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 22 secs
Prediction of 2017 Oct 28.0
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