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Updated: 2017 APR 03, 01:30 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Aug 31 UT, the 138 km diameter asteroid (216) Kleopatra will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a path across New Zealand including most areas south of a line from Greymouth to Ashburton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.36 mag to 11.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 20.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
168 25 13 -28 11 41 13 53 1 25 282 -65 170 6 26 -28 30 16 166 50 3 -27 52 56 170 29 38 -28 34 19 166 29 49 -27 48 47 2.14
168 12 3 -28 49 15 13 53 11 25 282 -64 169 53 46 -29 7 56 166 36 24 -28 30 23 170 17 4 -29 12 1 166 16 5 -28 26 13 2.15
167 59 47 -29 27 0 13 53 22 25 282 -64 169 42 6 -29 45 48 166 23 36 -29 8 1 170 5 32 -29 49 55 166 3 10 -29 3 49 2.15
167 48 28 -30 4 56 13 53 33 25 283 -64 169 31 27 -30 23 51 166 11 40 -29 45 50 169 55 3 -30 27 59 165 51 6 -29 41 37 2.15
167 38 6 -30 43 4 13 53 44 25 283 -63 169 21 51 -31 2 6 166 0 36 -30 23 51 169 45 38 -31 6 15 165 39 53 -30 19 36 2.16
167 28 42 -31 21 24 13 53 54 25 283 -63 169 13 19 -31 40 33 165 50 25 -31 2 4 169 37 18 -31 44 44 165 29 33 -30 57 47 2.16
167 20 17 -31 59 56 13 54 5 25 284 -62 169 5 52 -32 19 13 165 41 9 -31 40 29 169 30 5 -32 23 26 165 20 6 -31 36 11 2.17
167 12 53 -32 38 42 13 54 16 25 284 -62 168 59 33 -32 58 6 165 32 48 -32 19 7 169 24 1 -33 2 21 165 11 33 -32 14 48 2.17
167 6 33 -33 17 42 13 54 27 25 284 -61 168 54 23 -33 37 14 165 25 25 -32 58 0 169 19 9 -33 41 30 165 3 57 -32 53 38 2.18
167 1 17 -33 56 56 13 54 37 24 285 -61 168 50 26 -34 16 35 165 19 1 -33 37 6 169 15 30 -34 20 53 164 57 19 -33 32 43 2.18
166 57 9 -34 36 25 13 54 48 24 285 -60 168 47 44 -34 56 12 165 13 38 -34 16 27 169 13 8 -35 0 32 164 51 41 -34 12 2 2.19
166 54 12 -35 16 10 13 54 59 24 285 -60 168 46 20 -35 36 5 165 9 19 -34 56 4 169 12 7 -35 40 26 164 47 5 -34 51 37 2.19
166 52 28 -35 56 11 13 55 10 24 286 -59 168 46 18 -36 16 14 165 6 6 -35 35 57 169 12 30 -36 20 37 164 43 34 -35 31 28 2.20
166 52 1 -36 36 29 13 55 20 24 286 -58 168 47 43 -36 56 40 165 4 2 -36 16 6 169 14 22 -37 1 4 164 41 11 -36 11 36 2.20
166 52 55 -37 17 4 13 55 31 23 286 -58 168 50 39 -37 37 24 165 3 11 -36 56 33 169 17 48 -37 41 50 164 39 59 -36 52 1 -2.20
166 55 15 -37 57 58 13 55 42 23 286 -57 168 55 12 -38 18 26 165 3 37 -37 37 18 169 22 54 -38 22 54 164 40 2 -37 32 44 -2.21
166 59 5 -38 39 11 13 55 53 23 286 -57 169 1 29 -38 59 47 165 5 23 -38 18 22 169 29 46 -39 4 17 164 41 23 -38 13 46 -2.21
167 4 33 -39 20 44 13 56 3 23 287 -56 169 9 36 -39 41 28 165 8 36 -38 59 45 169 38 32 -39 46 0 164 44 8 -38 55 7 -2.22
167 11 44 -40 2 37 13 56 14 22 287 -55 169 19 42 -40 23 31 165 13 19 -39 41 30 169 49 21 -40 28 4 164 48 22 -39 36 49 -2.22
167 20 45 -40 44 52 13 56 25 22 287 -55 169 31 56 -41 5 54 165 19 40 -40 23 35 170 2 23 -41 10 29 164 54 11 -40 18 52 -2.23
167 31 46 -41 27 30 13 56 36 22 287 -54 169 46 29 -41 48 40 165 27 45 -41 6 3 170 17 49 -41 53 17 165 1 41 -41 1 18 -2.23
167 44 57 -42 10 30 13 56 46 21 287 -53 170 3 34 -42 31 49 165 37 42 -41 48 54 170 35 53 -42 36 27 165 11 0 -41 44 7 -2.24
168 0 28 -42 53 55 13 56 57 21 287 -52 170 23 25 -43 15 22 165 49 41 -42 32 9 170 56 49 -43 20 2 165 22 18 -42 27 19 -2.24
168 18 34 -43 37 45 13 57 8 20 287 -52 170 46 20 -43 59 20 166 3 52 -43 15 49 171 20 58 -44 4 2 165 35 43 -43 10 57 -2.24
168 39 28 -44 22 1 13 57 19 20 287 -51 171 12 38 -44 43 44 166 20 27 -43 59 56 171 48 40 -44 48 27 165 51 27 -43 55 2 -2.25
169 3 30 -45 6 45 13 57 29 19 287 -50 171 42 46 -45 28 35 166 39 40 -44 44 30 172 20 21 -45 33 19 166 9 44 -44 39 33 -2.25
169 31 0 -45 51 57 13 57 40 19 287 -49 172 17 11 -46 13 53 167 1 48 -45 29 32 172 56 35 -46 18 38 166 30 49 -45 24 33 -2.26
170 2 25 -46 37 38 13 57 51 18 287 -48 172 56 30 -46 59 39 167 27 8 -46 15 4 173 38 0 -47 4 24 166 55 0 -46 10 3 -2.26
170 38 14 -47 23 49 13 58 2 17 286 -48 173 41 27 -47 45 54 167 56 5 -47 1 7 174 25 26 -47 50 39 167 22 39 -46 56 4 -2.27
171 19 5 -48 10 31 13 58 12 17 286 -47 174 33 1 -48 32 38 168 29 4 -47 47 42 175 19 56 -48 37 22 167 54 10 -47 42 36 -2.27
172 5 45 -48 57 45 13 58 23 16 286 -46 175 32 26 -49 19 51 169 6 39 -48 34 50 176 22 56 -49 24 32 168 30 4 -48 29 43 -2.28
172 59 13 -49 45 32 13 58 34 15 285 -45 176 41 21 -50 7 31 169 49 30 -49 22 32 177 36 21 -50 12 9 169 10 59 -49 17 23 -2.28
174 0 45 -50 33 51 13 58 45 14 284 -44 178 2 8 -50 55 37 170 38 26 -50 10 50 179 3 0 -51 0 8 169 57 39 -50 5 40 -2.29
175 12 6 -51 22 42 13 58 55 13 284 -42 179 38 18 -51 44 3 171 34 31 -50 59 44 -179 12 50 -51 48 24 170 51 4 -50 54 33 -2.30
176 35 39 -52 12 2 13 59 6 12 283 -41 -178 24 28 -52 32 42 172 39 6 -51 49 14 -177 3 38 -52 36 43 171 52 28 -51 44 3 -2.31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2017 Apr 3.0
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