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Updated: 2017 Feb 24, 23:23 UT
Event Rank : 17
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Apr 16 UT, the 14 km diameter asteroid (2842) Unsold will occult a 9.3 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a very large uncertainty path across New Zealand, near the north-western parts of North Island and south and western parts of South Island, centred near Timaru and Alexandra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.50 mag to 15.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7870-01197-1 by 2842 Unsold on 2017 Apr 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 41 9 -35 10 31 16 54 55 79 248 -26 171 45 49 -35 10 44 171 36 29 -35 10 19 172 44 21 -35 13 0 170 38 11 -35 7 27 0.16
171 22 27 -36 35 42 16 55 43 80 256 -26 171 27 12 -36 35 54 171 17 42 -36 35 29 172 26 47 -36 38 14 170 18 21 -36 32 33 0.16
171 3 56 -38 0 46 16 56 31 80 264 -26 171 8 46 -38 0 58 170 59 5 -38 0 33 172 9 29 -38 3 21 169 58 38 -37 57 33 0.17
170 45 36 -39 25 46 16 57 19 80 273 -26 170 50 32 -39 25 59 170 40 40 -39 25 33 171 52 27 -39 28 25 169 39 0 -39 22 30 0.17
170 27 27 -40 50 47 16 58 7 80 281 -26 170 32 29 -40 51 0 170 22 25 -40 50 33 171 35 42 -40 53 29 169 19 28 -40 47 26 0.17
170 9 29 -42 15 50 16 58 55 80 290 -25 170 14 38 -42 16 4 170 4 20 -42 15 36 171 19 15 -42 18 35 169 0 1 -42 12 25 0.18
169 51 43 -43 40 59 16 59 43 79 297 -25 169 56 59 -43 41 13 169 46 27 -43 40 45 171 3 6 -43 43 48 168 40 38 -43 37 30 0.18
169 34 8 -45 6 18 17 0 31 79 304 -25 169 39 32 -45 6 32 169 28 44 -45 6 4 170 47 16 -45 9 10 168 21 18 -45 2 45 0.18
169 16 45 -46 31 50 17 1 18 78 310 -25 169 22 17 -46 32 4 169 11 13 -46 31 35 170 31 47 -46 34 45 168 2 3 -46 28 12 0.18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 28 secs
Prediction of 2017 Feb 24.0
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