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Updated: 2016 NOV 01, 03:31 UT
Event Rank : 45
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Dec 27 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (157) Dejanira will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a very narrow path across northern Australia, Derby across northern Western Australia, northern Northern Territory and northern Queensland to to Ingham, and across New Zealand near Hicks Bay.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.07 mag to 13.60 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-177 13 17 -42 0 0 11 49 40 13 348 -25 -176 59 0 -177 27 38 -176 10 30 -178 17 5 1.45
-178 6 53 -41 0 0 11 49 47 14 349 -26 -177 52 36 -178 21 12 -177 4 11 -179 10 37 1.46
-179 2 13 -40 0 0 11 49 54 16 349 -27 -178 47 57 -179 16 33 -177 59 31 179 54 0 1.46
-179 59 24 -39 0 0 11 50 2 17 350 -28 -179 45 6 179 46 14 -178 56 36 178 56 41 1.46
179 1 29 -38 0 0 11 50 10 18 351 -29 179 15 50 178 47 4 -179 55 32 177 57 21 1.47
178 0 19 -37 0 0 11 50 20 19 352 -30 178 14 44 177 45 51 179 3 35 176 55 51 1.47
176 57 0 -36 0 0 11 50 29 20 352 -31 177 11 30 176 42 25 178 0 40 175 52 5 1.47
175 51 22 -35 0 0 11 50 40 21 353 -31 176 6 0 175 36 40 176 55 32 174 45 52 1.47
174 43 15 -34 0 0 11 50 51 22 354 -32 174 58 2 174 28 24 175 48 4 173 37 3 1.48
173 32 29 -33 0 0 11 51 4 23 355 -33 173 47 27 173 17 26 174 38 4 172 25 24 1.48
172 18 49 -32 0 0 11 51 17 24 356 -34 172 34 0 172 3 33 173 25 20 171 10 41 1.48
171 2 0 -31 0 0 11 51 31 25 357 -35 171 17 27 170 46 27 172 9 39 169 52 37 1.48
169 41 43 -30 0 0 11 51 46 26 358 -35 169 57 28 169 25 51 170 50 41 168 30 50 1.48
168 17 35 -29 0 0 11 52 2 27 360 -36 168 33 43 168 1 20 169 28 9 167 4 56 1.48
166 49 9 -28 0 0 11 52 19 28 1 -37 167 5 45 166 32 27 168 1 37 165 34 23 1.48
165 15 53 -27 0 0 11 52 37 29 2 -37 165 33 0 164 58 37 166 30 35 163 58 34 1.48
163 37 2 -26 0 0 11 52 57 30 4 -38 163 54 48 163 19 7 164 54 27 162 16 37 1.47
161 51 43 -25 0 0 11 53 19 31 6 -38 162 10 16 161 32 59 163 12 27 160 27 30 1.47
159 58 43 -24 0 0 11 53 42 32 7 -38 160 18 15 159 38 59 161 23 33 158 29 44 1.47
157 56 25 -23 0 0 11 54 7 33 9 -38 158 17 11 157 35 22 159 26 24 156 21 16 1.47
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
156 0 0 -22 7 33 11 54 31 33 11 -38 -21 57 55 -22 17 12 -21 25 21 -22 50 36 1.47
155 0 0 -21 42 14 11 54 43 33 12 -38 -21 32 42 -21 51 49 -21 0 25 -22 24 54 1.48
154 0 0 -21 18 5 11 54 56 34 13 -38 -21 8 38 -21 27 35 -20 36 37 -22 0 23 1.48
153 0 0 -20 55 5 11 55 8 34 14 -38 -20 45 43 -21 4 31 -20 13 56 -21 37 3 1.48
152 0 0 -20 33 13 11 55 20 34 15 -38 -20 23 55 -20 42 34 -19 52 22 -21 14 51 1.48
151 0 0 -20 12 28 11 55 33 34 16 -37 -20 3 14 -20 21 45 -19 31 54 -20 53 48 1.48
150 0 0 -19 52 50 11 55 45 34 17 -37 -19 43 39 -20 2 3 -19 12 32 -20 33 53 1.48
149 0 0 -19 34 18 11 55 57 34 18 -37 -19 25 11 -19 43 28 -18 54 15 -20 15 5 1.48
148 0 0 -19 16 51 11 56 10 34 19 -37 -19 7 47 -19 25 58 -18 37 2 -19 57 24 1.48
147 0 0 -19 0 30 11 56 22 34 20 -36 -18 51 28 -19 9 33 -18 20 53 -19 40 49 1.48
146 0 0 -18 45 12 11 56 34 34 21 -36 -18 36 14 -18 54 13 -18 5 48 -19 25 19 1.48
145 0 0 -18 30 59 11 56 46 34 22 -35 -18 22 3 -18 39 57 -17 51 45 -19 10 55 1.48
144 0 0 -18 17 50 11 56 58 34 23 -35 -18 8 56 -18 26 46 -17 38 46 -18 57 35 1.48
143 0 0 -18 5 43 11 57 10 34 24 -34 -17 56 52 -18 14 37 -17 26 48 -18 45 19 1.48
142 0 0 -17 54 40 11 57 21 33 25 -34 -17 45 50 -18 3 32 -17 15 53 -18 34 7 1.48
141 0 0 -17 44 40 11 57 33 33 25 -33 -17 35 52 -17 53 30 -17 6 0 -18 23 59 1.48
140 0 0 -17 35 42 11 57 45 33 26 -33 -17 26 55 -17 44 31 -16 57 8 -18 14 55 1.48
139 0 0 -17 27 46 11 57 56 33 27 -32 -17 19 1 -17 36 34 -16 49 18 -18 6 53 1.48
138 0 0 -17 20 53 11 58 8 32 28 -32 -17 12 8 -17 29 39 -16 42 29 -17 59 55 1.48
137 0 0 -17 15 1 11 58 19 32 29 -31 -17 6 17 -17 23 47 -16 36 41 -17 53 59 1.48
136 0 0 -17 10 11 11 58 30 32 30 -31 -17 1 28 -17 18 56 -16 31 55 -17 49 6 1.48
135 0 0 -17 6 24 11 58 41 31 30 -30 -16 57 41 -17 15 8 -16 28 9 -17 45 16 1.48
134 0 0 -17 3 38 11 58 52 31 31 -29 -16 54 56 -17 12 22 -16 25 25 -17 42 29 1.48
133 0 0 -17 1 54 11 59 3 30 32 -29 -16 53 12 -17 10 38 -16 23 41 -17 40 44 1.48
132 0 0 -17 1 12 11 59 13 30 33 -28 -16 52 30 -17 9 56 -16 22 59 -17 40 3 1.49
131 0 0 -17 1 32 11 59 24 29 33 -27 -16 52 49 -17 10 16 -16 23 18 -17 40 24 1.49
130 0 0 -17 2 54 11 59 34 29 34 -26 -16 54 11 -17 11 38 -16 24 38 -17 41 48 1.49
129 0 0 -17 5 18 11 59 44 28 35 -26 -16 56 35 -17 14 3 -16 27 0 -17 44 15 1.49
128 0 0 -17 8 45 11 59 54 28 35 -25 -17 0 1 -17 17 31 -16 30 23 -17 47 46 1.49
127 0 0 -17 13 15 12 0 4 27 36 -24 -17 4 30 -17 22 2 -16 34 49 -17 52 20 1.49
126 0 0 -17 18 48 12 0 13 26 37 -23 -17 10 2 -17 27 36 -16 40 16 -17 57 59 1.50
125 0 0 -17 25 24 12 0 23 26 37 -22 -17 16 37 -17 34 14 -16 46 47 -18 4 42 1.50
124 0 0 -17 33 5 12 0 32 25 38 -22 -17 24 15 -17 41 56 -16 54 20 -18 12 29 1.50
123 0 0 -17 41 49 12 0 41 24 38 -21 -17 32 58 -17 50 42 -17 2 56 -18 21 22 1.50
122 0 0 -17 51 38 12 0 50 24 39 -20 -17 42 45 -18 0 33 -17 12 37 -18 31 20 1.50
121 0 0 -18 2 32 12 0 58 23 40 -19 -17 53 37 -18 11 30 -17 23 21 -18 42 25 1.51
120 0 0 -18 14 32 12 1 7 22 40 -18 -18 5 34 -18 23 32 -17 35 10 -18 54 36 1.51
119 0 0 -18 27 38 12 1 15 22 41 -17 -18 18 38 -18 36 41 -17 48 5 -19 7 55 1.51
118 0 0 -18 41 52 12 1 23 21 41 -16 -18 32 48 -18 50 57 -18 2 5 -19 22 21 1.51
117 0 0 -18 57 12 12 1 30 20 42 -16 -18 48 6 -19 6 21 -18 17 12 -19 37 57 1.52
116 0 0 -19 13 42 12 1 38 19 42 -15 -19 4 31 -19 22 54 -18 33 26 -19 54 42 1.52
115 0 0 -19 31 20 12 1 45 18 43 -14 -19 22 6 -19 40 36 -18 50 49 -20 12 37 1.52
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2016 Nov 1.0
Use these links for further information:
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