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Updated: 2016 OCT 22, 22:35 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Dec 14 UT, the 259 km diameter asteroid (15) Eunomia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a very broad path across Australia, from Derby across eastern Western Australia to Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.27 mag to 10.20 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 27.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
131 57 52 -39 0 0 19 6 51 46 23 -6 130 9 20 133 45 18 129 56 14 133 58 7 0.59
131 37 27 -38 0 0 19 6 41 47 24 -7 129 50 12 133 23 36 129 37 15 133 36 16 0.59
131 16 48 -37 0 0 19 6 30 47 25 -8 129 30 45 133 1 44 129 17 57 133 14 16 0.59
130 55 54 -36 0 0 19 6 19 48 26 -9 129 10 59 132 39 42 128 58 19 132 52 6 0.59
130 34 45 -35 0 0 19 6 8 49 27 -10 128 50 54 132 17 30 128 38 22 132 29 45 0.59
130 13 21 -34 0 0 19 5 57 50 28 -11 128 30 29 131 55 5 128 18 4 132 7 14 0.59
129 51 40 -33 0 0 19 5 46 50 29 -12 128 9 44 131 32 28 127 57 26 131 44 30 0.59
129 29 42 -32 0 0 19 5 34 51 30 -12 127 48 39 131 9 38 127 36 26 131 21 34 0.60
129 7 27 -31 0 0 19 5 23 52 32 -13 127 27 12 130 46 34 127 15 5 130 58 24 0.60
128 44 54 -30 0 0 19 5 11 52 33 -14 127 5 23 130 23 15 126 53 22 130 34 59 0.60
128 22 1 -29 0 0 19 4 59 53 34 -15 126 43 12 129 59 41 126 31 16 130 11 20 0.60
127 58 49 -28 0 0 19 4 47 54 36 -16 126 20 38 129 35 50 126 8 46 129 47 24 0.60
127 35 16 -27 0 0 19 4 35 54 37 -17 125 57 40 129 11 42 125 45 53 129 23 12 0.60
127 11 22 -26 0 0 19 4 23 55 39 -18 125 34 18 128 47 15 125 22 34 128 58 41 0.60
126 47 6 -25 0 0 19 4 10 55 40 -19 125 10 30 128 22 29 124 58 49 128 33 52 0.60
126 22 26 -24 0 0 19 3 58 56 42 -20 124 46 16 127 57 23 124 34 38 128 8 42 0.60
125 57 22 -23 0 0 19 3 45 56 44 -21 124 21 34 127 31 56 124 9 59 127 43 12 0.60
125 31 53 -22 0 0 19 3 32 57 45 -22 123 56 24 127 6 6 123 44 51 127 17 20 0.61
125 5 57 -21 0 0 19 3 19 57 47 -23 123 30 45 126 39 53 123 19 14 126 51 5 0.61
124 39 34 -20 0 0 19 3 7 57 49 -24 123 4 35 126 13 16 122 53 6 126 24 26 0.61
124 12 43 -19 0 0 19 2 54 58 51 -25 122 37 54 125 46 13 122 26 26 125 57 21 0.61
123 45 21 -18 0 0 19 2 40 58 53 -26 122 10 40 125 18 42 121 59 12 125 29 49 0.61
123 17 29 -17 0 0 19 2 27 58 54 -27 121 42 51 124 50 44 121 31 24 125 1 50 0.61
122 49 4 -16 0 0 19 2 14 58 56 -28 121 14 27 124 22 16 121 3 0 124 33 21 0.61
122 20 4 -15 0 0 19 2 1 58 58 -29 120 45 26 123 53 16 120 33 58 124 4 22 0.61
121 50 29 -14 0 0 19 1 47 58 60 -30 120 15 46 123 23 44 120 4 17 123 34 50 0.62
121 20 17 -13 0 0 19 1 34 58 62 -31 119 45 25 122 53 38 119 33 55 123 4 44 0.62
120 49 25 -12 0 0 19 1 20 58 64 -32 119 14 22 122 22 56 119 2 50 122 34 3 0.62
120 17 53 -11 0 0 19 1 6 58 66 -33 118 42 34 121 51 36 118 31 1 122 2 45 0.62
119 45 37 -10 0 0 19 0 53 58 68 -34 118 10 0 121 19 36 117 58 24 121 30 47 0.62
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Oct 22.0
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