|
|
Updated: 2016 Sep 26, 02:53 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Oct 30 UT, the 135 km diameter asteroid (466) Tisiphone will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a wide path across northern Queensland and northern South Australia, passing over Cairns and Ceduna.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.07 mag to 14.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 43559232 by 466 Tisiphone on 2016 Oct 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
129 8 23 -37 0 0 11 48 33 15 24 -21 128 22 46 129 54 6 127 57 16 130 19 45 0.54
129 55 49 -36 0 0 11 48 30 16 23 -22 129 10 40 130 41 3 128 45 26 131 6 27 0.54
130 43 3 -35 0 0 11 48 27 17 23 -23 129 58 21 131 27 52 129 33 22 131 53 1 0.54
131 30 9 -34 0 0 11 48 24 18 22 -24 130 45 52 132 14 34 130 21 6 132 39 29 0.55
132 17 9 -33 0 0 11 48 21 19 22 -25 131 33 15 133 1 12 131 8 42 133 25 55 0.55
133 4 7 -32 0 0 11 48 18 21 21 -27 132 20 33 133 47 48 131 56 12 134 12 20 0.55
133 51 4 -31 0 0 11 48 14 22 21 -28 133 7 49 134 34 27 132 43 39 134 58 48 0.55
134 38 2 -30 0 0 11 48 10 23 20 -29 133 55 5 135 21 8 133 31 5 135 45 20 0.55
135 25 6 -29 0 0 11 48 6 24 20 -30 134 42 24 136 7 56 134 18 33 136 31 59 0.55
136 12 16 -28 0 0 11 48 2 25 19 -31 135 29 48 136 54 52 135 6 6 137 18 48 0.55
136 59 35 -27 0 0 11 47 57 26 19 -32 136 17 20 137 41 59 135 53 45 138 5 48 0.56
137 47 6 -26 0 0 11 47 52 28 18 -33 137 5 2 138 29 19 136 41 33 138 53 3 0.56
138 34 51 -25 0 0 11 47 47 29 18 -35 137 52 57 139 16 55 137 29 33 139 40 33 0.56
139 22 52 -24 0 0 11 47 42 30 17 -36 138 41 6 140 4 49 138 17 47 140 28 22 0.56
140 11 12 -23 0 0 11 47 37 31 17 -37 139 29 33 140 53 2 139 6 18 141 16 33 0.56
140 59 53 -22 0 0 11 47 31 32 16 -38 140 18 19 141 41 38 139 55 7 142 5 7 0.56
141 48 57 -21 0 0 11 47 25 33 16 -39 141 7 27 142 30 40 140 44 17 142 54 6 0.56
142 38 28 -20 0 0 11 47 19 35 15 -41 141 56 59 143 20 8 141 33 51 143 43 34 0.56
143 28 27 -19 0 0 11 47 13 36 14 -42 142 46 59 144 10 7 142 23 51 144 33 33 0.56
144 18 57 -18 0 0 11 47 7 37 14 -43 143 37 28 145 0 39 143 14 20 145 24 6 0.56
145 10 1 -17 0 0 11 47 0 38 13 -44 144 28 29 145 51 46 144 5 20 146 15 15 0.56
146 1 42 -16 0 0 11 46 53 39 12 -46 145 20 6 146 43 31 144 56 55 147 7 3 0.56
146 54 2 -15 0 0 11 46 46 40 12 -47 146 12 21 147 35 58 145 49 6 147 59 33 0.56
147 47 5 -14 0 0 11 46 39 41 11 -48 147 5 16 148 29 9 146 41 58 148 52 49 0.56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2016 Sep 26.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]