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Updated: 2016 Sep 26, 02:30 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Oct 04 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (597) Bandusia will occult a 8.7 mag star in the constellation Microscopium for observers along a path across central West Australia, passing over Kalgoorlie.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.32 mag to 13.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7476-00781-1 by 597 Bandusia on 2016 Oct 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 43 43 -10 0 0 12 42 19 65 202 -47 125 53 46 125 33 39 126 9 16 125 18 10 0.09
125 32 28 -11 0 0 12 42 7 66 202 -46 125 42 34 125 22 23 125 58 6 125 6 51 0.09
125 21 14 -12 0 0 12 41 54 67 203 -46 125 31 21 125 11 7 125 46 57 124 55 31 0.09
125 9 59 -13 0 0 12 41 42 68 203 -45 125 20 9 124 59 50 125 35 48 124 44 11 0.09
124 58 43 -14 0 0 12 41 30 69 204 -45 125 8 56 124 48 31 125 24 39 124 32 49 0.09
124 47 26 -15 0 0 12 41 17 70 204 -44 124 57 41 124 37 11 125 13 28 124 21 25 0.09
124 36 6 -16 0 0 12 41 5 71 205 -43 124 46 24 124 25 49 125 2 16 124 9 58 0.09
124 24 44 -17 0 0 12 40 52 72 206 -43 124 35 5 124 14 23 124 51 1 123 58 27 0.08
124 13 18 -18 0 0 12 40 40 73 206 -42 124 23 42 124 2 54 124 39 43 123 46 52 0.08
124 1 47 -19 0 0 12 40 27 74 207 -42 124 12 15 123 51 19 124 28 22 123 35 13 0.08
123 50 12 -20 0 0 12 40 14 75 208 -41 124 0 43 123 39 40 124 16 56 123 23 28 0.08
123 38 31 -21 0 0 12 40 1 76 210 -40 123 49 6 123 27 55 124 5 25 123 11 36 0.08
123 26 43 -22 0 0 12 39 48 77 211 -40 123 37 23 123 16 3 123 53 49 122 59 37 0.08
123 14 48 -23 0 0 12 39 35 78 213 -39 123 25 33 123 4 3 123 42 6 122 47 30 0.08
123 2 45 -24 0 0 12 39 22 79 214 -38 123 13 35 122 51 55 123 30 15 122 35 15 0.08
122 50 33 -25 0 0 12 39 9 80 217 -38 123 1 28 122 39 38 123 18 16 122 22 49 0.08
122 38 11 -26 0 0 12 38 56 81 219 -37 122 49 12 122 27 11 123 6 9 122 10 14 0.08
122 25 39 -27 0 0 12 38 43 82 223 -36 122 36 45 122 14 32 122 53 51 121 57 26 0.08
122 12 55 -28 0 0 12 38 30 82 227 -36 122 24 7 122 1 42 122 41 22 121 44 26 0.08
121 59 58 -29 0 0 12 38 17 83 232 -35 122 11 17 121 48 39 122 28 42 121 31 13 0.08
121 46 47 -30 0 0 12 38 4 84 238 -34 121 58 13 121 35 21 122 15 49 121 17 45 0.08
121 33 21 -31 0 0 12 37 50 85 247 -33 121 44 54 121 21 48 122 2 41 121 4 1 0.08
121 19 40 -32 0 0 12 37 37 85 258 -33 121 31 20 121 7 59 121 49 19 120 50 0 0.08
121 5 41 -33 0 0 12 37 24 85 271 -32 121 17 30 120 53 52 121 35 41 120 35 40 0.08
120 51 23 -34 0 0 12 37 11 85 286 -31 121 3 20 120 39 26 121 21 44 120 21 1 0.08
120 36 46 -35 0 0 12 36 57 85 300 -31 120 48 52 120 24 39 121 7 29 120 6 1 0.08
120 21 46 -36 0 0 12 36 44 85 313 -30 120 34 2 120 9 31 120 52 54 119 50 38 0.08
120 6 24 -37 0 0 12 36 31 84 323 -29 120 18 49 119 53 58 120 37 56 119 34 50 0.08
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2016 Sep 26.0
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