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Updated: 2016 JUL 14, 23:23 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Aug 31 UT, the 168 km diameter asteroid (185) Eunike will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a north-to-south path across eastern Australia, passing near Townsville, Mackay, Bendigo and Melbourne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.34 mag to 10.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
150 46 8 -13 26 53 18 36 0 33 265 -21 152 8 45 -13 35 9 149 26 29 -13 17 56 153 3 21 -13 40 3 148 36 56 -13 11 52 1.24
150 14 29 -14 21 33 18 36 7 34 266 -22 151 36 33 -14 30 4 148 55 19 -14 12 23 152 30 44 -14 35 8 148 6 1 -14 6 11 1.25
149 44 18 -15 16 2 18 36 15 34 266 -23 151 5 54 -15 24 46 148 25 30 -15 6 39 151 59 44 -15 29 59 147 36 25 -15 0 20 1.25
149 15 29 -16 10 21 18 36 23 35 267 -23 150 36 43 -16 19 18 147 56 59 -16 0 47 151 30 17 -16 24 39 147 8 3 -15 54 21 1.25
148 47 59 -17 4 32 18 36 30 35 268 -23 150 8 57 -17 13 40 147 29 42 -16 54 47 151 2 18 -17 19 10 146 40 53 -16 48 15 1.25
148 21 45 -17 58 36 18 36 38 36 268 -24 149 42 31 -18 7 56 147 3 36 -17 48 41 150 35 43 -18 13 33 146 14 51 -17 42 2 1.25
147 56 44 -18 52 35 18 36 45 36 269 -24 149 17 23 -19 2 5 146 38 39 -18 42 30 150 10 30 -19 7 50 145 49 56 -18 35 45 1.25
147 32 53 -19 46 30 18 36 53 36 270 -25 148 53 31 -19 56 10 146 14 49 -19 36 16 149 46 35 -20 2 1 145 26 5 -19 29 25 1.26
147 10 12 -20 40 23 18 37 1 37 271 -25 148 30 51 -20 50 12 145 52 4 -20 29 59 149 23 56 -20 56 9 145 3 17 -20 23 3 1.26
146 48 37 -21 34 14 18 37 8 37 272 -25 148 9 23 -21 44 12 145 30 22 -21 23 41 149 2 31 -21 50 15 144 41 30 -21 16 40 1.26
146 28 9 -22 28 4 18 37 16 37 272 -25 147 49 5 -22 38 11 145 9 42 -22 17 24 148 42 18 -22 44 20 144 20 42 -22 10 17 1.26
146 8 45 -23 21 55 18 37 23 37 273 -26 147 29 56 -23 32 10 144 50 3 -23 11 7 148 23 18 -23 38 24 144 0 54 -23 3 56 1.26
145 50 25 -24 15 49 18 37 31 38 274 -26 147 11 54 -24 26 11 144 31 25 -24 4 53 148 5 28 -24 32 30 143 42 4 -23 57 37 1.27
145 33 9 -25 9 45 18 37 38 38 275 -26 146 55 0 -25 20 15 144 13 47 -24 58 42 147 48 48 -25 26 39 143 24 11 -24 51 21 1.27
145 16 56 -26 3 45 18 37 46 38 276 -26 146 39 14 -26 14 22 143 57 8 -25 52 35 147 33 19 -26 20 51 143 7 16 -25 45 10 1.27
145 1 46 -26 57 51 18 37 54 38 276 -26 146 24 34 -27 8 34 143 41 29 -26 46 34 147 19 0 -27 15 7 142 51 19 -26 39 4 1.27
144 47 40 -27 52 2 18 38 1 38 277 -27 146 11 3 -28 2 53 143 26 49 -27 40 39 147 5 51 -28 9 30 142 36 19 -27 33 5 1.27
144 34 39 -28 46 21 18 38 9 38 278 -27 145 58 41 -28 57 18 143 13 11 -28 34 51 146 53 54 -29 3 59 142 22 17 -28 27 13 1.27
144 22 43 -29 40 49 18 38 16 38 279 -27 145 47 28 -29 51 51 143 0 33 -29 29 13 146 43 10 -29 58 36 142 9 14 -29 21 31 1.28
144 11 53 -30 35 26 18 38 24 38 280 -27 145 37 25 -30 46 34 142 48 58 -30 23 43 146 33 40 -30 53 22 141 57 10 -30 15 58 1.28
144 2 11 -31 30 13 18 38 32 38 280 -27 145 28 36 -31 41 26 142 38 26 -31 18 25 146 25 25 -31 48 18 141 46 8 -31 10 35 1.28
143 53 39 -32 25 12 18 38 39 38 281 -27 145 21 1 -32 36 30 142 28 59 -32 13 18 146 18 29 -32 43 25 141 36 8 -32 5 25 1.28
143 46 19 -33 20 24 18 38 47 38 282 -27 145 14 44 -33 31 47 142 20 40 -33 8 25 146 12 54 -33 38 44 141 27 12 -33 0 28 1.28
143 40 13 -34 15 49 18 38 54 38 283 -27 145 9 46 -34 27 17 142 13 30 -34 3 45 146 8 42 -34 34 17 141 19 22 -33 55 45 1.28
143 35 25 -35 11 29 18 39 2 37 283 -26 145 6 12 -35 23 1 142 7 32 -34 59 21 146 5 58 -35 30 3 141 12 41 -34 51 17 1.29
143 31 58 -36 7 26 18 39 10 37 284 -26 145 4 6 -36 19 2 142 2 49 -35 55 13 146 4 45 -36 26 5 141 7 12 -35 47 5 1.29
143 29 55 -37 3 39 18 39 17 37 285 -26 145 3 31 -37 15 19 141 59 24 -36 51 22 146 5 9 -37 22 24 141 2 58 -36 43 12 1.29
143 29 23 -38 0 11 18 39 25 37 285 -26 145 4 32 -38 11 54 141 57 23 -37 47 50 146 7 15 -38 19 0 141 0 2 -37 39 37 1.29
143 30 25 -38 57 3 18 39 32 36 286 -26 145 7 17 -39 8 48 141 56 48 -38 44 38 146 11 9 -39 15 56 140 58 30 -38 36 22 -1.29
143 33 7 -39 54 16 18 39 40 36 287 -26 145 11 51 -40 6 2 141 57 47 -39 41 48 146 16 58 -40 13 10 140 58 25 -39 33 29 -1.29
143 37 37 -40 51 51 18 39 48 36 287 -25 145 18 21 -41 3 38 142 0 24 -40 39 20 146 24 51 -41 10 46 140 59 54 -40 30 59 -1.30
143 44 2 -41 49 49 18 39 55 35 288 -25 145 26 58 -42 1 37 142 4 47 -41 37 16 146 34 56 -42 8 44 141 3 3 -41 28 52 -1.30
143 52 32 -42 48 11 18 40 3 35 288 -25 145 37 50 -42 59 59 142 11 4 -42 35 37 146 47 26 -43 7 6 141 8 0 -42 27 12 -1.30
144 3 15 -43 47 0 18 40 10 35 289 -24 145 51 9 -43 58 47 142 19 24 -43 34 25 147 2 31 -44 5 51 141 14 52 -43 25 59 -1.30
144 16 25 -44 46 16 18 40 18 34 289 -24 146 7 8 -44 58 1 142 29 56 -44 33 41 147 20 27 -45 5 2 141 23 51 -44 25 14 -1.30
144 32 14 -45 46 1 18 40 25 34 290 -24 146 26 3 -45 57 41 142 42 54 -45 33 27 147 41 29 -46 4 39 141 35 5 -45 24 59 -1.30
144 50 59 -46 46 15 18 40 33 33 290 -23 146 48 11 -46 57 51 142 58 31 -46 33 44 148 5 57 -47 4 42 141 48 50 -46 25 16 -1.31
145 12 56 -47 47 1 18 40 41 32 290 -23 147 13 53 -47 58 29 143 17 3 -47 34 33 148 34 13 -48 5 14 142 5 18 -47 26 6 -1.31
145 38 28 -48 48 19 18 40 48 32 290 -22 147 43 33 -48 59 37 143 38 48 -48 35 56 149 6 44 -49 6 13 142 24 48 -48 27 31 -1.31
146 7 59 -49 50 10 18 40 56 31 291 -21 148 17 38 -50 1 16 144 4 9 -49 37 55 149 43 59 -50 7 41 142 47 40 -49 29 33 -1.31
146 41 59 -50 52 34 18 41 3 30 291 -21 148 56 43 -51 3 25 144 33 31 -50 40 30 150 26 36 -51 9 37 143 14 17 -50 32 12 -1.31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jul 14.0
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