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Updated: 2016 JUL 14, 23:23 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Aug 30 UT, the 81 km diameter asteroid (71) Niobe will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a south-to-north path across Australia, passing near Hobart, Melbourne and Thursday Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.48 mag to 11.40 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
151 46 27 -49 12 13 13 10 5 51 275 -49 151 6 37 -49 19 13 152 26 22 -49 5 0 149 56 41 -49 31 1 153 36 46 -48 51 47 -0.68
150 54 1 -48 4 18 13 10 17 51 274 -49 150 15 5 -48 11 1 151 33 1 -47 57 22 149 6 46 -48 22 22 152 41 52 -47 44 39 -0.68
150 5 36 -46 56 8 13 10 29 52 273 -50 149 27 31 -47 2 37 150 43 45 -46 49 27 148 20 42 -47 13 33 151 51 7 -46 37 12 -0.68
149 20 51 -45 47 46 13 10 41 53 273 -51 148 43 35 -45 54 2 149 58 13 -45 41 19 147 38 12 -46 4 35 151 4 11 -45 29 29 -0.68
148 39 29 -44 39 13 13 10 53 53 271 -52 148 2 58 -44 45 17 149 16 5 -44 32 58 146 58 55 -44 55 29 150 20 44 -44 21 30 -0.68
148 1 12 -43 30 29 13 11 4 54 270 -53 147 25 24 -43 36 22 148 37 6 -43 24 26 146 22 37 -43 46 16 149 40 30 -43 13 18 -0.69
147 25 47 -42 21 35 13 11 16 54 269 -54 146 50 39 -42 27 18 148 1 0 -42 15 42 145 49 3 -42 36 55 149 3 14 -42 4 52 -0.69
146 53 0 -41 12 31 13 11 28 54 268 -55 146 18 30 -41 18 5 147 27 36 -41 6 47 145 18 1 -41 27 27 148 28 43 -40 56 14 -0.69
146 22 40 -40 3 17 13 11 40 55 267 -56 145 48 46 -40 8 43 146 56 40 -39 57 41 144 49 20 -40 17 51 147 56 45 -39 47 23 -0.69
145 54 37 -38 53 53 13 11 52 55 265 -57 145 21 17 -38 59 11 146 28 4 -38 48 24 144 22 50 -39 8 7 147 27 10 -38 38 20 -0.69
145 28 42 -37 44 17 13 12 3 55 264 -57 144 55 53 -37 49 29 146 1 37 -37 38 55 143 58 22 -37 58 14 146 59 49 -37 29 3 -0.69
145 4 47 -36 34 30 13 12 15 55 262 -58 144 32 28 -36 39 37 145 37 13 -36 29 14 143 35 49 -36 48 12 146 34 32 -36 19 33 -0.69
144 42 44 -35 24 31 13 12 27 55 261 -59 144 10 53 -35 29 32 145 14 42 -35 19 20 143 15 3 -35 37 59 146 11 13 -35 9 48 -0.69
144 22 28 -34 14 18 13 12 39 55 259 -60 143 51 3 -34 19 15 144 54 0 -34 9 12 142 55 59 -34 27 34 145 49 45 -33 59 48 -0.69
144 3 52 -33 3 51 13 12 51 55 258 -61 143 32 51 -33 8 44 144 35 0 -32 58 48 142 38 31 -33 16 57 145 30 2 -32 49 32 -0.69
143 46 52 -31 53 8 13 13 3 55 256 -61 143 16 14 -31 57 58 144 17 37 -31 48 9 142 22 34 -32 6 5 145 12 0 -31 38 59 -0.70
143 31 24 -30 42 8 13 13 14 55 254 -62 143 1 7 -30 46 55 144 1 47 -30 37 12 142 8 5 -30 54 58 144 55 32 -30 28 6 -0.70
143 17 22 -29 30 49 13 13 26 55 253 -63 142 47 25 -29 35 34 143 47 26 -29 25 55 141 54 58 -29 43 34 144 40 37 -29 16 54 -0.70
143 4 45 -28 19 11 13 13 38 55 251 -64 142 35 6 -28 23 54 143 34 30 -28 14 18 141 43 12 -28 31 51 144 27 9 -28 5 20 -0.70
142 53 28 -27 7 10 13 13 50 54 250 -64 142 24 7 -27 11 52 143 22 57 -27 2 18 141 32 43 -27 19 47 144 15 6 -26 53 22 -0.70
142 43 31 -25 54 45 13 14 2 54 248 -65 142 14 25 -25 59 27 143 12 43 -25 49 54 141 23 29 -26 7 21 144 4 25 -25 40 59 -0.70
142 34 50 -24 41 55 13 14 13 54 246 -66 142 5 59 -24 46 36 143 3 48 -24 37 4 141 15 28 -24 54 30 143 55 4 -24 28 9 -0.70
142 27 24 -23 28 36 13 14 25 53 245 -67 141 58 46 -23 33 18 142 56 9 -23 23 45 141 8 39 -23 41 13 143 47 3 -23 14 49 -0.70
142 21 11 -22 14 47 13 14 37 53 244 -67 141 52 45 -22 19 30 142 49 45 -22 9 55 141 3 0 -22 27 26 143 40 18 -22 0 57 -0.71
142 16 12 -21 0 25 13 14 49 52 242 -68 141 47 56 -21 5 9 142 44 35 -20 55 31 140 58 30 -21 13 8 143 34 50 -20 46 30 -0.71
142 12 25 -19 45 27 13 15 1 52 241 -68 141 44 19 -19 50 14 142 40 38 -19 40 31 140 55 9 -19 58 16 143 30 38 -19 31 26 -0.71
142 9 50 -18 29 50 13 15 12 51 239 -69 141 41 52 -18 34 40 142 37 56 -18 24 51 140 52 57 -18 42 47 143 27 42 -18 15 42 -0.71
142 8 28 -17 13 31 13 15 24 50 238 -70 141 40 37 -17 18 24 142 36 27 -17 8 29 140 51 54 -17 26 37 143 26 2 -16 59 13 -0.71
142 8 19 -15 56 27 13 15 36 50 237 -70 141 40 33 -16 1 24 142 36 13 -15 51 21 140 52 1 -16 9 43 143 25 40 -15 41 58 -0.71
142 9 25 -14 38 33 13 15 48 49 236 -70 141 41 43 -14 43 35 142 37 15 -14 33 22 140 53 18 -14 52 2 143 26 36 -14 23 50 0.71
142 11 47 -13 19 46 13 16 0 48 234 -71 141 44 8 -13 24 53 142 39 35 -13 14 29 140 55 48 -13 33 29 143 28 52 -13 4 47 0.72
142 15 27 -12 0 0 13 16 12 47 233 -71 141 47 49 -12 5 13 142 43 14 -11 54 37 140 59 32 -12 14 0 143 32 31 -11 44 43 0.72
142 20 29 -10 39 11 13 16 23 46 232 -71 141 52 51 -10 44 31 142 48 17 -10 33 40 141 4 34 -10 53 30 143 37 36 -10 23 33 0.72
142 26 56 - 9 17 12 13 16 35 45 231 -72 141 59 15 - 9 22 41 142 54 46 - 9 11 34 141 10 55 - 9 31 53 143 44 11 - 9 1 11 0.72
142 34 52 - 7 53 58 13 16 47 44 230 -72 142 7 7 - 7 59 36 143 2 47 - 7 48 10 141 18 41 - 8 9 3 143 52 21 - 7 37 29 0.72
142 44 22 - 6 29 21 13 16 59 43 229 -72 142 16 31 - 6 35 9 143 12 24 - 6 23 22 141 27 56 - 6 44 54 144 2 10 - 6 12 21 0.73
142 55 33 - 5 3 13 13 17 11 42 228 -72 142 27 34 - 5 9 12 143 23 43 - 4 57 1 141 38 45 - 5 19 17 144 13 47 - 4 45 38 0.73
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jul 14.0
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