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Updated: 2016 JUL 14, 23:06 UT
Event Rank : 39
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Aug 11 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (1468) Zomba will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a south-to-north path across central Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.32 mag to 14.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 43 48 -39 25 53 14 14 13 54 275 -61 129 36 19 -39 24 32 129 51 17 -39 27 14 129 3 45 -39 18 30 130 24 16 -39 33 3 0.71
130 6 1 -38 17 44 14 14 34 54 273 -62 129 58 39 -38 16 25 130 13 24 -38 19 3 129 26 30 -38 10 31 130 45 56 -38 24 45 0.71
130 28 45 -37 9 32 14 14 54 54 271 -63 130 21 28 -37 8 14 130 36 2 -37 10 49 129 49 44 -37 2 27 131 8 9 -37 16 23 0.72
130 52 0 -36 1 13 14 15 15 53 269 -64 130 44 49 -35 59 57 130 59 13 -36 2 29 130 13 27 -35 54 18 131 30 56 -36 7 55 0.72
131 15 50 -34 52 46 14 15 35 53 267 -65 131 8 43 -34 51 31 131 22 57 -34 54 0 130 37 42 -34 46 0 131 54 20 -34 59 19 0.72
131 40 15 -33 44 8 14 15 56 52 266 -67 131 33 13 -33 42 56 131 47 18 -33 45 21 131 2 31 -33 37 32 132 18 22 -33 50 32 0.72
132 5 18 -32 35 18 14 16 16 52 264 -68 131 58 20 -32 34 7 132 12 18 -32 36 28 131 27 56 -32 28 51 132 43 3 -32 41 32 0.72
132 31 2 -31 26 12 14 16 37 51 262 -69 132 24 7 -31 25 2 132 37 58 -31 27 20 131 53 59 -31 19 54 133 8 28 -31 32 16 0.73
132 57 29 -30 16 47 14 16 58 51 261 -70 132 50 37 -30 15 40 133 4 21 -30 17 54 132 20 43 -30 10 39 133 34 37 -30 22 42 0.73
133 24 42 -29 7 1 14 17 18 50 259 -71 133 17 53 -29 5 56 133 31 31 -29 8 6 132 48 11 -29 1 4 134 1 34 -29 12 46 0.73
133 52 43 -27 56 52 14 17 39 49 258 -72 133 45 57 -27 55 48 133 59 30 -27 57 55 133 16 27 -27 51 4 134 29 22 -28 2 26 0.73
134 21 38 -26 46 15 14 17 59 49 256 -73 134 14 54 -26 45 13 134 28 23 -26 47 16 133 45 33 -26 40 38 134 58 5 -26 51 38 0.74
134 51 29 -25 35 7 14 18 20 48 255 -75 134 44 47 -25 34 7 134 58 12 -25 36 6 134 15 34 -25 29 41 135 27 47 -25 40 19 0.74
135 22 22 -24 23 25 14 18 40 47 254 -76 135 15 41 -24 22 28 135 29 3 -24 24 22 134 46 34 -24 18 11 135 58 31 -24 28 25 0.74
135 54 20 -23 11 5 14 19 1 46 252 -77 135 47 40 -23 10 10 136 1 1 -23 11 59 135 18 38 -23 6 3 136 30 25 -23 15 53 0.74
136 27 31 -21 58 2 14 19 22 45 251 -78 136 20 51 -21 57 9 136 34 11 -21 58 54 135 51 51 -21 53 13 137 3 32 -22 2 37 0.75
137 1 59 -20 44 11 14 19 42 44 250 -79 136 55 20 -20 43 21 137 8 39 -20 45 1 136 26 21 -20 39 36 137 38 0 -20 48 32 0.75
137 37 53 -19 29 28 14 20 3 43 249 -81 137 31 14 -19 28 41 137 44 33 -19 30 15 137 2 13 -19 25 7 138 13 56 -19 33 34 0.75
138 15 21 -18 13 46 14 20 23 42 248 -82 138 8 40 -18 13 2 138 22 2 -18 14 30 137 39 37 -18 9 40 138 51 29 -18 17 36 0.75
138 54 32 -16 56 58 14 20 44 41 247 -83 138 47 50 -16 56 17 139 1 15 -16 57 39 138 18 40 -16 53 9 139 30 48 -17 0 32 0.76
139 35 38 -15 38 57 14 21 4 40 246 -84 139 28 54 -15 38 20 139 42 23 -15 39 35 138 59 35 -15 35 26 140 12 6 -15 42 12 0.76
140 18 51 -14 19 34 14 21 25 38 245 -84 140 12 5 -14 19 0 140 25 39 -14 20 8 139 42 34 -14 16 23 140 55 36 -14 22 28 0.76
141 4 29 -12 58 38 14 21 46 37 244 -85 140 57 38 -12 58 8 141 11 20 -12 59 8 140 27 52 -12 55 49 141 41 34 -13 1 9 0.77
141 52 48 -11 35 58 14 22 6 36 243 -85 141 45 53 -11 35 32 141 59 45 -11 36 22 141 15 47 -11 33 33 142 30 20 -11 38 3 0.77
142 44 14 -10 11 17 14 22 27 34 242 -84 142 37 13 -10 10 57 142 51 16 -10 11 37 142 6 41 -10 9 20 143 22 19 -10 12 53 0.77
143 39 13 - 8 44 19 14 22 47 33 242 -83 143 32 4 - 8 44 5 143 46 23 - 8 44 32 143 1 1 - 8 42 54 144 18 0 - 8 45 21 0.78
144 38 23 - 7 14 40 14 23 8 31 241 -82 144 31 5 - 7 14 33 144 45 42 - 7 14 46 143 59 22 - 7 13 52 145 18 2 - 7 15 3 0.78
145 42 30 - 5 41 53 14 23 28 29 240 -81 145 35 0 - 5 41 54 145 50 1 - 5 41 51 145 2 28 - 5 41 49 146 23 16 - 5 41 29 0.78
146 52 37 - 4 5 18 14 23 49 27 240 -79 146 44 52 - 4 5 30 147 0 23 - 4 5 6 146 11 16 - 4 6 8 147 34 48 - 4 3 58 0.79
148 10 10 - 2 24 6 14 24 10 25 239 -77 148 2 5 - 2 24 30 148 18 17 - 2 23 40 147 27 6 - 2 26 2 148 54 14 - 2 21 33 0.79
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jul 14.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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