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Updated: 2016 JUL 10, 15:41 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Aug 01 UT, the 25 km diameter asteroid (2183) Neufang will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia, beginning just east of Darwin and ending west of Ceduna in SA.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.35 mag to 14.50 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 43 21 1 43 20 16 11 13 19 233 -63 137 59 53 1 51 10 137 27 3 1 35 41 139 27 11 2 33 33 136 8 2 0 59 26 1.15
136 55 19 0 15 7 16 11 32 20 233 -65 137 10 55 0 22 15 136 39 53 0 8 7 138 32 44 1 0 36 135 24 46 - 0 25 15 1.15
136 13 4 - 1 8 47 16 11 51 21 234 -66 136 27 57 - 1 2 10 135 58 20 - 1 15 16 137 45 36 - 0 26 56 134 46 16 - 1 46 18 1.16
135 35 34 - 2 29 7 16 12 10 23 234 -67 135 49 53 - 2 22 57 135 21 24 - 2 35 11 137 4 16 - 1 50 10 134 11 48 - 3 4 19 1.17
135 2 4 - 3 46 29 16 12 28 24 234 -69 135 15 55 - 3 40 40 134 48 20 - 3 52 12 136 27 40 - 3 9 54 133 40 46 - 4 19 45 1.17
134 31 59 - 5 1 18 16 12 47 25 235 -70 134 45 28 - 4 55 47 134 18 37 - 5 6 44 135 55 3 - 4 26 42 133 12 45 - 5 32 56 1.18
134 4 55 - 6 13 54 16 13 6 26 235 -71 134 18 4 - 6 8 39 133 51 51 - 6 19 5 135 25 52 - 5 40 58 132 47 23 - 6 44 8 1.18
133 40 30 - 7 24 34 16 13 25 27 235 -72 133 53 23 - 7 19 32 133 27 42 - 7 29 32 134 59 41 - 6 53 3 132 24 25 - 7 53 36 1.19
133 18 28 - 8 33 30 16 13 44 28 236 -73 133 31 8 - 8 28 39 133 5 54 - 8 38 17 134 36 11 - 8 3 12 132 3 38 - 9 1 29 1.19
132 58 38 - 9 40 53 16 14 3 28 236 -73 133 11 6 - 9 36 12 132 46 15 - 9 45 30 134 15 5 - 9 11 39 131 44 50 -10 7 57 1.20
132 40 48 -10 46 52 16 14 21 29 237 -74 132 53 7 -10 42 20 132 28 34 -10 51 21 133 56 12 -10 18 34 131 27 53 -11 13 8 1.20
132 24 50 -11 51 35 16 14 40 30 237 -75 132 37 0 -11 47 10 132 12 44 -11 55 57 133 39 20 -11 24 6 131 12 40 -12 17 9 1.20
132 10 37 -12 55 8 16 14 59 31 238 -75 132 22 40 -12 50 50 131 58 38 -12 59 23 133 24 21 -12 28 22 130 59 4 -13 20 5 1.21
131 58 3 -13 57 37 16 15 18 31 238 -76 132 10 0 -13 53 25 131 46 9 -14 1 47 133 11 9 -13 31 29 130 47 1 -14 22 1 1.21
131 47 2 -14 59 7 16 15 37 32 239 -76 131 58 54 -14 55 0 131 35 13 -15 3 12 132 59 36 -14 33 32 130 36 25 -15 23 2 1.22
131 37 31 -15 59 42 16 15 56 32 239 -76 131 49 20 -15 55 40 131 25 46 -16 3 42 132 49 40 -15 34 36 130 27 15 -16 23 11 1.22
131 29 27 -16 59 26 16 16 14 33 240 -77 131 41 12 -16 55 28 131 17 44 -17 3 22 132 41 15 -16 34 46 130 19 27 -17 22 33 1.23
131 22 46 -17 58 23 16 16 33 33 241 -77 131 34 29 -17 54 28 131 11 6 -18 2 15 132 34 18 -17 34 4 130 12 58 -18 21 9 1.23
131 17 27 -18 56 34 16 16 52 34 241 -77 131 29 8 -18 52 42 131 5 48 -19 0 23 132 28 48 -18 32 35 130 7 46 -19 19 4 1.23
131 13 28 -19 54 3 16 17 11 34 242 -77 131 25 8 -19 50 14 131 1 50 -19 57 50 132 24 41 -19 30 21 130 3 51 -20 16 18 1.24
131 10 47 -20 50 53 16 17 30 35 242 -76 131 22 27 -20 47 6 130 59 9 -20 54 37 132 21 56 -20 27 24 130 1 11 -21 12 55 1.24
131 9 23 -21 47 5 16 17 49 35 243 -76 131 21 4 -21 43 19 130 57 46 -21 50 47 132 20 33 -21 23 48 129 59 45 -22 8 57 1.25
131 9 17 -22 42 40 16 18 8 36 243 -76 131 20 58 -22 38 57 130 57 39 -22 46 22 132 20 29 -22 19 33 129 59 34 -23 4 25 1.25
131 10 28 -23 37 42 16 18 26 36 244 -75 131 22 10 -23 34 0 130 58 48 -23 41 22 132 21 46 -23 14 43 130 0 36 -23 59 20 -1.26
131 12 55 -24 32 11 16 18 45 36 245 -75 131 24 39 -24 28 29 131 1 14 -24 35 51 132 24 22 -24 9 17 130 2 52 -24 53 44 -1.26
131 16 39 -25 26 9 16 19 4 36 245 -74 131 28 25 -25 22 28 131 4 56 -25 29 48 132 28 19 -25 3 18 130 6 23 -25 47 39 -1.26
131 21 42 -26 19 36 16 19 23 37 246 -74 131 33 30 -26 15 55 131 9 56 -26 23 15 132 33 36 -25 56 48 130 11 9 -26 41 6 -1.27
131 28 3 -27 12 35 16 19 42 37 246 -73 131 39 54 -27 8 54 131 16 14 -27 16 14 132 40 14 -26 49 46 130 17 11 -27 34 5 -1.27
131 35 44 -28 5 5 16 20 1 37 247 -73 131 47 38 -28 1 23 131 23 51 -28 8 44 132 48 15 -27 42 14 130 24 31 -28 26 37 -1.28
131 44 46 -28 57 7 16 20 19 37 247 -72 131 56 44 -28 53 25 131 32 49 -29 0 47 132 57 40 -28 34 13 130 33 9 -29 18 43 -1.28
131 55 11 -29 48 42 16 20 38 37 248 -71 132 7 14 -29 45 0 131 43 10 -29 52 23 133 8 30 -29 25 43 130 43 8 -30 10 24 -1.28
132 7 1 -30 39 51 16 20 57 37 248 -71 132 19 9 -30 36 7 131 54 56 -30 43 33 133 20 48 -30 16 44 130 54 30 -31 1 39 -1.29
132 20 18 -31 30 34 16 21 16 37 249 -70 132 32 31 -31 26 48 132 8 8 -31 34 17 133 34 36 -31 7 18 131 7 16 -31 52 31 -1.29
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. -169 57 47 -48 6 32 ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 15 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jul 10.0
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