|
|
Updated: 2016 Apr 08, 05:06 UT
Event Rank : 56
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jul 21 UT, the 77 km diameter asteroid (626) Notburga will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Ara for observers along a path across western West Australia, passing near Karratha during evening twilight and over Albany.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.46 mag to 13.40 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 07147651 by 626 Notburga on 2016 Jul 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
118 21 48 -36 58 57 10 33 59 58 141 -16 117 53 55 -36 56 9 118 49 38 -37 1 34 116 50 45 -36 49 10 119 52 25 -37 6 50 0.36
118 13 28 -35 28 34 10 34 11 57 142 -16 117 46 4 -35 25 42 118 40 50 -35 31 16 116 44 0 -35 18 33 119 42 31 -35 36 41 0.36
118 4 11 -33 56 55 10 34 24 55 144 -15 117 37 14 -33 53 58 118 31 5 -33 59 41 116 36 10 -33 46 37 119 31 45 -34 5 18 0.36
117 53 55 -32 23 51 10 34 36 54 145 -15 117 27 23 -32 20 48 118 20 24 -32 26 43 116 27 15 -32 13 15 119 20 7 -32 32 32 0.36
117 42 39 -30 49 14 10 34 48 53 146 -14 117 16 30 -30 46 4 118 8 45 -30 52 12 116 17 14 -30 38 16 119 7 35 -30 58 15 0.36
117 30 22 -29 12 54 10 35 1 51 147 -14 117 4 34 -29 9 37 117 56 7 -29 15 59 116 6 5 -29 1 31 118 54 8 -29 22 18 0.36
117 17 1 -27 34 40 10 35 13 50 148 -13 116 51 32 -27 31 15 117 42 26 -27 37 54 115 53 46 -27 22 50 118 39 43 -27 44 31 0.36
117 2 32 -25 54 20 10 35 26 48 149 -12 116 37 21 -25 50 45 117 27 40 -25 57 43 115 40 14 -25 41 58 118 24 17 -26 4 41 0.36
116 46 53 -24 11 39 10 35 38 47 150 -12 116 21 57 -24 7 53 117 11 45 -24 15 12 115 25 25 -23 58 41 118 7 45 -24 22 34 0.36
116 29 56 -22 26 20 10 35 50 45 151 -11 116 5 14 -22 22 22 116 54 35 -22 30 6 115 9 12 -22 12 40 117 50 3 -22 37 53 0.36
116 11 36 -20 38 3 10 36 3 43 151 -10 115 47 6 -20 33 51 116 36 3 -20 42 3 114 51 29 -20 23 35 117 31 4 -20 50 21 0.36
115 51 45 -18 46 25 10 36 15 42 152 -9 115 27 23 -18 41 56 116 16 2 -18 50 41 114 32 6 -18 31 1 117 10 40 -18 59 33 0.35
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2016 Apr 8.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]