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Updated: 2016 May 15, 01:26 UT
Event Rank : 66
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jul 01 UT, the 70 km diameter asteroid (1567) Alikoski will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path running down Queensland's Pacific Ocean coast from Cape York Peninsula to Brisbane, then across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand, passing near Hamilton and over Gisborne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.65 mag to 14.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5561-00907-1 by 1567 Alikoski on 2016 Jul 1
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
142 34 32 -10 0 0 12 31 58 53 260 -58 142 8 59 143 0 15 141 29 28 143 40 43 -0.73
142 59 57 -11 0 0 12 32 18 53 262 -59 142 34 7 143 25 57 141 54 11 144 6 53 -0.73
143 26 40 -12 0 0 12 32 38 52 263 -60 143 0 32 143 52 59 142 20 7 144 34 25 -0.74
143 54 45 -13 0 0 12 32 59 52 264 -61 143 28 17 144 21 25 142 47 23 145 3 24 -0.74
144 24 17 -14 0 0 12 33 19 52 265 -62 143 57 28 144 51 19 143 16 0 145 33 54 -0.74
144 55 21 -15 0 0 12 33 40 51 266 -63 144 28 8 145 22 46 143 46 5 146 6 0 -0.74
145 0 0 -15 8 44 12 33 43 51 267 -63 -15 59 18 -14 16 52 -17 15 50 -12 53 7 -0.74
146 0 0 -16 55 52 12 34 20 50 268 -64 -17 43 26 -16 7 14 -18 55 39 -14 49 1 -0.75
147 0 0 -18 33 56 12 34 53 49 270 -66 -19 18 58 -17 48 0 -20 27 30 -16 34 21 -0.75
148 0 0 -20 4 11 12 35 25 48 271 -67 -20 47 2 -19 20 33 -21 52 24 -18 10 46 -0.76
149 0 0 -21 27 35 12 35 54 47 272 -69 -22 8 33 -20 45 56 -23 11 9 -19 39 28 -0.76
150 0 0 -22 44 57 12 36 21 46 273 -70 -23 24 15 -22 5 2 -24 24 25 -21 1 27 -0.76
151 0 0 -23 56 55 12 36 46 44 274 -71 -24 34 46 -23 18 32 -25 32 47 -22 17 29 -0.76
152 0 0 -25 4 3 12 37 10 43 275 -72 -25 40 36 -24 27 1 -26 36 40 -23 28 13 -0.76
153 0 0 -26 6 48 12 37 32 42 275 -73 -26 42 11 -25 30 59 -27 36 31 -24 34 10 -0.76
154 0 0 -27 5 33 12 37 53 41 275 -74 -27 39 53 -26 30 50 -28 32 39 -25 35 48 -0.76
155 0 0 -28 0 39 12 38 13 40 275 -74 -28 34 1 -27 26 55 -29 25 22 -26 33 30 -0.76
156 0 0 -28 52 23 12 38 32 39 276 -75 -29 24 53 -28 19 32 -30 14 56 -27 27 35 -0.77
157 0 0 -29 41 0 12 38 49 38 276 -75 -30 12 43 -29 8 58 -31 1 34 -28 18 21 -0.77
158 0 0 -30 26 44 12 39 6 37 276 -76 -30 57 43 -29 55 27 -31 45 29 -29 6 2 -0.77
159 0 0 -31 9 46 12 39 22 36 276 -76 -31 40 5 -30 39 10 -32 26 51 -29 50 52 -0.77
160 0 0 -31 50 17 12 39 37 35 275 -77 -32 20 0 -31 20 19 -33 5 50 -30 33 2 -0.77
161 0 0 -32 28 27 12 39 51 34 275 -77 -32 57 35 -31 59 4 -33 42 34 -31 12 43 -0.76
162 0 0 -33 4 23 12 40 5 33 275 -77 -33 33 0 -32 35 32 -34 17 12 -31 50 3 -0.76
163 0 0 -33 38 14 12 40 18 32 275 -77 -34 6 22 -33 9 53 -34 49 50 -32 25 12 -0.76
164 0 0 -34 10 6 12 40 30 32 274 -77 -34 37 47 -33 42 12 -35 20 35 -32 58 15 -0.76
165 0 0 -34 40 5 12 40 42 31 274 -77 -35 7 22 -34 12 37 -35 49 31 -33 29 21 -0.76
166 0 0 -35 8 17 12 40 53 30 274 -77 -35 35 11 -34 41 13 -36 16 45 -33 58 34 -0.76
167 0 0 -35 34 47 12 41 4 29 273 -77 -36 1 19 -35 8 4 -36 42 21 -34 26 1 -0.76
168 0 0 -35 59 39 12 41 14 28 273 -77 -36 25 51 -35 33 17 -37 6 23 -34 51 46 -0.76
169 0 0 -36 22 58 12 41 24 27 273 -76 -36 48 51 -35 56 54 -37 28 55 -35 15 54 -0.76
170 0 0 -36 44 47 12 41 33 26 272 -76 -37 10 23 -36 19 1 -37 50 1 -35 38 29 -0.76
171 0 0 -37 5 10 12 41 42 25 272 -76 -37 30 30 -36 39 40 -38 9 44 -35 59 34 -0.76
172 0 0 -37 24 10 12 41 51 25 271 -76 -37 49 15 -36 58 55 -38 28 7 -36 19 13 -0.76
173 0 0 -37 41 49 12 41 59 24 271 -75 -38 6 41 -37 16 48 -38 45 12 -36 37 28 -0.76
174 0 0 -37 58 11 12 42 7 23 270 -75 -38 22 51 -37 33 23 -39 1 2 -36 54 23 -0.76
175 0 0 -38 13 18 12 42 14 22 270 -74 -38 37 46 -37 48 41 -39 15 40 -37 10 1 -0.75
176 0 0 -38 27 12 12 42 21 21 269 -74 -38 51 29 -38 2 46 -39 29 7 -37 24 23 -0.75
177 0 0 -38 39 54 12 42 28 21 268 -73 -39 4 2 -38 15 38 -39 41 25 -37 37 31 -0.75
178 0 0 -38 51 27 12 42 34 20 268 -73 -39 15 26 -38 27 20 -39 52 36 -37 49 27 -0.75
179 0 0 -39 1 53 12 42 41 19 267 -72 -39 25 44 -38 37 54 -40 2 41 -38 0 14 -0.75
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2016 May 15.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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