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Updated: 2016 MAY 15, 01:26 UT
Event Rank : 42
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jun 29 UT, the 43 km diameter asteroid (623) Chimaera will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia, from west of Hobart to Wynyard in Tasmania, and from Melbourne to Echuca in Victoria, then across western New South Wales and western Queensland into evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.27 mag to 15.40 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
146 39 8 -45 46 11 8 57 23 64 81 -23 146 20 47 -45 47 35 146 57 26 -45 44 45 145 10 36 -45 52 28 148 6 32 -45 38 52 0.49
146 24 3 -44 28 45 8 57 39 64 84 -23 146 6 6 -44 30 7 146 41 57 -44 27 21 144 57 30 -44 34 54 147 49 32 -44 21 36 0.49
146 8 17 -43 11 23 8 57 55 64 86 -22 145 50 43 -43 12 43 146 25 48 -43 10 1 144 43 34 -43 17 24 147 31 59 -43 4 23 0.49
145 51 52 -41 54 3 8 58 11 64 89 -22 145 34 39 -41 55 21 146 9 2 -41 52 42 144 28 50 -41 59 55 147 13 54 -41 47 12 0.49
145 34 48 -40 36 41 8 58 27 64 92 -22 145 17 55 -40 37 57 145 51 39 -40 35 22 144 13 22 -40 42 24 146 55 17 -40 29 59 0.49
145 17 7 -39 19 14 8 58 43 63 95 -21 145 0 32 -39 20 29 145 33 39 -39 17 58 143 57 8 -39 24 49 146 36 9 -39 12 43 0.48
144 58 48 -38 1 42 8 58 59 63 97 -21 144 42 30 -38 2 54 145 15 4 -38 0 27 143 40 12 -38 7 7 146 16 30 -37 55 20 0.48
144 39 53 -36 43 59 8 59 15 63 100 -20 144 23 50 -36 45 10 144 55 52 -36 42 47 143 22 33 -36 49 15 145 56 19 -36 37 48 0.48
144 20 20 -35 26 5 8 59 31 62 103 -20 144 4 32 -35 27 13 144 36 5 -35 24 54 143 4 11 -35 31 10 145 35 36 -35 20 5 0.48
144 0 9 -34 7 55 8 59 47 62 105 -19 143 44 36 -34 9 1 144 15 41 -34 6 47 142 45 6 -34 12 50 145 14 21 -34 2 6 0.48
143 39 21 -32 49 27 9 0 3 61 107 -18 143 24 0 -32 50 31 143 54 40 -32 48 21 142 25 19 -32 54 11 144 52 32 -32 43 50 0.48
143 17 54 -31 30 39 9 0 19 61 110 -18 143 2 44 -31 31 40 143 33 1 -31 29 35 142 4 49 -31 35 11 144 30 9 -31 25 12 0.48
142 55 46 -30 11 25 9 0 35 60 112 -17 142 40 48 -30 12 24 143 10 43 -30 10 24 141 43 34 -30 15 45 144 7 10 -30 6 11 0.48
142 32 58 -28 51 44 9 0 51 59 114 -17 142 18 9 -28 52 40 142 47 44 -28 50 46 141 21 34 -28 55 52 143 43 33 -28 46 43 0.47
142 9 26 -27 31 32 9 1 7 58 116 -16 141 54 47 -27 32 25 142 24 4 -27 30 36 140 58 47 -27 35 26 143 19 18 -27 26 44 0.47
141 45 10 -26 10 44 9 1 23 57 118 -15 141 30 39 -26 11 35 141 59 39 -26 9 52 140 35 11 -26 14 25 142 54 22 -26 6 10 0.47
141 20 7 -24 49 18 9 1 39 57 119 -14 141 5 44 -24 50 5 141 34 28 -24 48 28 140 10 44 -24 52 44 142 28 42 -24 44 58 0.47
140 54 14 -23 27 8 9 1 55 56 121 -14 140 39 57 -23 27 52 141 8 28 -23 26 21 139 45 24 -23 30 18 142 2 16 -23 23 3 0.47
140 27 28 -22 4 9 9 2 11 55 123 -13 140 13 18 -22 4 50 140 41 37 -22 3 26 139 19 7 -22 7 3 141 35 1 -22 0 21 0.47
139 59 47 -20 40 17 9 2 27 53 124 -12 139 45 41 -20 40 54 140 13 50 -20 39 38 138 51 50 -20 42 53 141 6 54 -20 36 46 0.47
139 31 5 -19 15 26 9 2 43 52 125 -11 139 17 4 -19 16 0 139 45 3 -19 14 51 138 23 30 -19 17 44 140 37 51 -19 12 13 0.47
139 1 18 -17 49 30 9 2 59 51 127 -10 138 47 21 -17 50 0 139 15 13 -17 48 59 137 54 1 -17 51 27 140 7 47 -17 46 37 0.46
138 30 22 -16 22 22 9 3 15 50 128 -9 138 16 28 -16 22 47 138 44 14 -16 21 55 137 23 17 -16 23 57 139 36 36 -16 19 50 0.46
137 58 10 -14 53 55 9 3 31 49 129 -8 137 44 17 -14 54 14 138 12 0 -14 53 32 136 51 13 -14 55 6 139 4 14 -14 51 44 0.46
137 24 34 -13 23 59 9 3 47 47 130 -7 137 10 43 -13 24 13 137 38 23 -13 23 42 136 17 42 -13 24 44 138 30 34 -13 22 13 0.46
136 49 27 -11 52 25 9 4 3 46 131 -6 136 35 36 -11 52 33 137 3 17 -11 52 13 135 42 33 -11 52 41 137 55 26 -11 51 6 0.46
136 12 39 -10 19 1 9 4 19 45 132 -5 135 58 46 -10 19 3 136 26 30 -10 18 56 135 5 38 -10 18 45 137 18 43 -10 18 12 0.46
135 33 58 - 8 43 35 9 4 35 43 133 -4 135 20 3 - 8 43 30 135 47 51 - 8 43 37 134 26 44 - 8 42 44 136 40 12 - 8 43 19 0.46
134 53 10 - 7 5 52 9 4 51 42 134 -3 134 39 10 - 7 5 38 135 7 6 - 7 6 2 133 45 35 - 7 4 20 135 59 42 - 7 6 13 0.46
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 115 16 15 25 34 7 ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2016 May 15.0
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