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Updated: 2016 MAY 05, 01:05 UT
Event Rank : 55
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jun 01 UT, the 52 km diameter asteroid (986) Amelia will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand from Haast to Gore.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.69 mag to 14.10 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
168 19 8 -42 39 30 15 25 17 65 48 -51 168 38 43 -42 34 59 167 59 27 -42 43 58 169 23 30 -42 24 29 167 13 54 -42 54 7 0.39
168 38 6 -43 59 50 15 25 39 65 45 -50 168 58 7 -43 55 15 168 18 0 -44 4 23 169 43 50 -43 44 34 167 31 28 -44 14 43 0.39
168 57 16 -45 20 44 15 26 2 64 43 -49 169 17 44 -45 16 4 168 36 43 -45 25 23 170 4 29 -45 5 11 167 49 7 -45 35 54 0.39
169 16 41 -46 42 15 15 26 25 63 40 -49 169 37 38 -46 37 30 168 55 39 -46 46 59 170 25 29 -46 26 24 168 6 53 -46 57 42 0.39
169 36 25 -48 4 28 15 26 47 62 38 -48 169 57 53 -47 59 36 169 14 50 -48 9 17 170 46 56 -47 48 17 168 24 48 -48 20 13 0.39
169 56 30 -49 27 25 15 27 10 61 35 -47 170 18 33 -49 22 28 169 34 20 -49 32 20 171 8 54 -49 10 54 168 42 56 -49 43 30 0.39
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2016 May 5.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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