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Updated: 2016 APR 26, 07:01 UT
Event Rank : 74
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 May 09 UT, the 207 km diameter asteroid (372) Palma will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path over WA and NT passing near Carnarvon and Newman.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.11 mag to 13.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
108 0 0 -25 55 4 20 55 3 43 84 -32 -26 52 52 -24 57 9 -28 5 31 -23 43 57 -0.13
109 0 0 -25 42 44 20 55 6 44 84 -31 -26 40 39 -24 44 40 -27 53 28 -23 31 18 -0.13
110 0 0 -25 29 48 20 55 9 45 84 -30 -26 27 51 -24 31 36 -27 40 51 -23 18 3 -0.13
111 0 0 -25 16 17 20 55 12 46 83 -29 -26 14 29 -24 17 56 -27 27 39 -23 4 13 -0.13
112 0 0 -25 2 10 20 55 16 47 83 -28 -26 0 31 -24 3 41 -27 13 53 -22 49 46 -0.13
113 0 0 -24 47 28 20 55 19 48 83 -27 -25 45 58 -23 48 49 -26 59 31 -22 34 43 -0.13
114 0 0 -24 32 10 20 55 23 49 82 -26 -25 30 50 -23 33 22 -26 44 35 -22 19 3 -0.13
115 0 0 -24 16 16 20 55 27 50 82 -25 -25 15 5 -23 17 18 -26 29 3 -22 2 46 -0.13
116 0 0 -23 59 45 20 55 30 51 82 -24 -24 58 45 -23 0 37 -26 12 55 -21 45 52 -0.13
117 0 0 -23 42 39 20 55 34 52 82 -23 -24 41 49 -22 43 20 -25 56 12 -21 28 21 -0.13
118 0 0 -23 24 55 20 55 38 53 82 -22 -24 24 17 -22 25 25 -25 38 53 -21 10 13 -0.13
119 0 0 -23 6 35 20 55 42 54 81 -21 -24 6 8 -22 6 54 -25 20 58 -20 51 28 -0.13
120 0 0 -22 47 38 20 55 46 55 81 -20 -23 47 22 -21 47 46 -25 2 27 -20 32 5 -0.13
121 0 0 -22 28 4 20 55 50 56 81 -19 -23 28 0 -21 28 0 -24 43 19 -20 12 4 -0.13
122 0 0 -22 7 53 20 55 54 57 81 -18 -23 8 0 -21 7 37 -24 23 35 -19 51 26 -0.13
123 0 0 -21 47 4 20 55 59 58 81 -17 -22 47 24 -20 46 36 -24 3 13 -19 30 9 -0.13
124 0 0 -21 25 38 20 56 3 59 81 -16 -22 26 10 -20 24 57 -23 42 16 -19 8 15 -0.13
125 0 0 -21 3 35 20 56 7 60 81 -15 -22 4 20 -20 2 41 -23 20 41 -18 45 42 -0.13
126 0 0 -20 40 54 20 56 12 61 81 -14 -21 41 51 -19 39 47 -22 58 28 -18 22 31 -0.13
127 0 0 -20 17 35 20 56 16 62 81 -13 -21 18 45 -19 16 14 -22 35 39 -17 58 42 -0.13
128 0 0 -19 53 38 20 56 21 63 81 -12 -20 55 2 -18 52 4 -22 12 12 -17 34 15 -0.13
129 0 0 -19 29 3 20 56 26 64 81 -11 -20 30 41 -18 27 16 -21 48 8 -17 9 9 -0.13
130 0 0 -19 3 50 20 56 30 65 81 -10 -20 5 42 -18 1 49 -21 23 26 -16 43 25 -0.13
131 0 0 -18 38 0 20 56 35 66 82 -9 -19 40 5 -17 35 45 -20 58 7 -16 17 2 -0.13
132 0 0 -18 11 32 20 56 40 67 82 -8 -19 13 51 -17 9 2 -20 32 11 -15 50 2 -0.13
133 0 0 -17 44 25 20 56 45 68 82 -7 -18 46 59 -16 41 42 -20 5 36 -15 22 23 -0.13
134 0 0 -17 16 41 20 56 50 69 83 -6 -18 19 29 -16 13 43 -19 38 25 -14 54 6 -0.13
135 0 0 -16 48 20 20 56 55 70 84 -5 -17 51 22 -15 45 7 -19 10 36 -14 25 11 -0.13
136 0 0 -16 19 21 20 57 0 71 84 -4 -17 22 38 -15 15 53 -18 42 9 -13 55 39 -0.13
137 0 0 -15 49 44 20 57 5 72 85 -3 -16 53 16 -14 46 2 -18 13 6 -13 25 29 -0.13
138 0 0 -15 19 30 20 57 11 73 86 -2 -16 23 17 -14 15 34 -17 43 25 -12 54 42 -0.13
139 0 0 -14 48 40 20 57 16 74 88 -1 -15 52 41 -13 44 28 -17 13 8 -12 23 18 -0.13
140 0 0 -14 17 13 20 57 21 75 89 1 -15 21 29 -13 12 47 -16 42 14 -11 51 17 -0.13
141 0 0 -13 45 10 20 57 27 76 91 2 -14 49 40 -12 40 28 -16 10 44 -11 18 40 -0.13
142 0 0 -13 12 31 20 57 32 77 93 3 -14 17 16 -12 7 35 -15 38 37 -10 45 28 -0.13
143 0 0 -12 39 16 20 57 38 78 95 4 -13 44 16 -11 34 5 -15 5 56 -10 11 40 -0.13
144 0 0 -12 5 26 20 57 44 79 98 5 -13 10 41 -11 0 1 -14 32 39 - 9 37 17 -0.13
145 0 0 -11 31 3 20 57 49 80 102 6 -12 36 31 -10 25 23 -13 58 47 - 9 2 21 -0.13
146 0 0 -10 56 5 20 57 55 80 107 7 -12 1 47 - 9 50 11 -13 24 21 - 8 26 50 -0.12
147 0 0 -10 20 34 20 58 1 81 112 8 -11 26 31 - 9 14 25 -12 49 22 - 7 50 47 -0.12
148 0 0 - 9 44 30 20 58 7 82 118 10 -10 50 41 - 8 38 8 -12 13 50 - 7 14 12 -0.12
149 0 0 - 9 7 55 20 58 13 82 125 11 -10 14 19 - 8 1 19 -11 37 45 - 6 37 5 -0.12
150 0 0 - 8 30 49 20 58 18 83 134 12 - 9 37 26 - 7 23 59 -11 1 9 - 5 59 28 -0.12
151 0 0 - 7 53 12 20 58 24 83 143 13 - 9 0 3 - 6 46 9 -10 24 3 - 5 21 22 -0.12
152 0 0 - 7 15 6 20 58 30 83 153 14 - 8 22 10 - 6 7 51 - 9 46 26 - 4 42 47 -0.12
153 0 0 - 6 36 33 20 58 36 83 162 15 - 7 43 49 - 5 29 4 - 9 8 20 - 4 3 44 -0.12
154 0 0 - 5 57 31 20 58 42 82 171 17 - 7 5 0 - 4 49 51 - 8 29 47 - 3 24 16 -0.12
155 0 0 - 5 18 4 20 58 48 82 178 18 - 6 25 45 - 4 10 12 - 7 50 46 - 2 44 22 -0.12
156 0 0 - 4 38 12 20 58 54 81 185 19 - 5 46 4 - 3 30 9 - 7 11 19 - 2 4 4 -0.12
157 0 0 - 3 57 56 20 59 0 80 191 20 - 5 5 59 - 2 49 42 - 6 31 28 - 1 23 23 -0.12
158 0 0 - 3 17 18 20 59 7 79 195 21 - 4 25 31 - 2 8 53 - 5 51 13 - 0 42 21 -0.12
159 0 0 - 2 36 18 20 59 13 78 199 23 - 3 44 41 - 1 27 43 - 5 10 36 - 0 0 59 -0.12
160 0 0 - 1 54 59 20 59 19 77 202 24 - 3 3 31 - 0 46 14 - 4 29 38 0 40 42 -0.12
161 0 0 - 1 13 21 20 59 25 76 205 25 - 2 22 2 - 0 4 28 - 3 48 20 1 22 40 -0.12
162 0 0 - 0 31 26 20 59 31 75 208 26 - 1 40 16 0 37 35 - 3 6 44 2 4 54 -0.12
163 0 0 0 10 44 20 59 37 74 210 27 - 0 58 13 1 19 53 - 2 24 51 2 47 22 -0.12
164 0 0 0 53 8 20 59 43 73 212 29 - 0 15 56 2 2 25 - 1 42 43 3 30 2 -0.12
165 0 0 1 35 44 20 59 49 72 213 30 0 26 34 2 45 7 - 1 0 22 4 12 53 -0.12
166 0 0 2 18 32 20 59 55 71 215 31 1 9 15 3 28 1 - 0 17 48 4 55 53 -0.12
167 0 0 3 1 28 21 0 0 70 216 32 1 52 6 4 11 2 0 24 57 5 39 1 -0.12
168 0 0 3 44 32 21 0 6 68 217 33 2 35 5 4 54 10 1 7 50 6 22 15 -0.12
169 0 0 4 27 41 21 0 12 67 218 35 3 18 11 5 37 23 1 50 51 7 5 33 -0.12
170 0 0 5 10 55 21 0 18 66 219 36 4 1 21 6 20 40 2 33 58 7 48 54 -0.12
171 0 0 5 54 10 21 0 24 65 220 37 4 44 35 7 3 58 3 17 8 8 32 15 -0.12
172 0 0 6 37 27 21 0 29 64 220 38 5 27 50 7 47 16 4 0 21 9 15 35 -0.12
173 0 0 7 20 42 21 0 35 62 221 39 6 11 4 8 30 33 4 43 34 9 58 53 -0.12
174 0 0 8 3 55 21 0 40 61 222 41 6 54 16 9 13 46 5 26 46 10 42 6 -0.12
175 0 0 8 47 3 21 0 46 60 222 42 7 37 25 9 56 53 6 9 55 11 25 13 -0.12
176 0 0 9 30 5 21 0 51 59 223 43 8 20 28 10 39 54 6 52 59 12 8 12 -0.12
177 0 0 10 13 0 21 0 56 58 224 44 9 3 24 11 22 47 7 35 58 12 51 2 -0.12
178 0 0 10 55 44 21 1 1 56 224 45 9 46 12 12 5 29 8 18 48 13 33 41 -0.12
179 0 0 11 38 18 21 1 7 55 225 46 10 28 49 12 47 59 9 1 29 14 16 7 -0.11
180 0 0 12 20 39 21 1 12 54 225 47 11 11 14 13 30 16 9 43 59 14 58 19 -0.11
-179 0 0 13 2 46 21 1 16 53 226 49 11 53 26 14 12 19 10 26 17 15 40 15 -0.11
-178 0 0 13 44 38 21 1 21 52 226 50 12 35 22 14 54 5 11 8 20 16 21 54 -0.11
-177 0 0 14 26 12 21 1 26 50 227 51 13 17 2 15 35 33 11 50 7 17 3 15 -0.11
-176 0 0 15 7 28 21 1 31 49 227 52 13 58 25 16 16 42 12 31 38 17 44 16 -0.11
-175 0 0 15 48 24 21 1 35 48 228 53 14 39 28 16 57 31 13 12 50 18 24 55 -0.11
-174 0 0 16 28 59 21 1 39 47 228 54 15 20 10 17 37 58 13 53 42 19 5 12 -0.11
-173 0 0 17 9 11 21 1 44 46 228 55 16 0 31 18 18 2 14 34 13 19 45 6 -0.11
-172 0 0 17 49 0 21 1 48 45 229 56 16 40 29 18 57 42 15 14 21 20 24 34 -0.11
-171 0 0 18 28 24 21 1 52 43 229 57 17 20 2 19 36 57 15 54 7 21 3 37 -0.11
-170 0 0 19 7 22 21 1 56 42 230 58 17 59 10 20 15 45 16 33 27 21 42 12 -0.11
-169 0 0 19 45 54 21 2 0 41 230 59 18 37 52 20 54 6 17 12 22 22 20 20 -0.11
-168 0 0 20 23 57 21 2 4 40 231 60 19 16 6 21 31 59 17 50 49 22 57 59 -0.11
-167 0 0 21 1 32 21 2 7 39 231 61 19 53 53 22 9 23 18 28 49 23 35 9 -0.11
-166 0 0 21 38 38 21 2 11 38 232 62 20 31 10 22 46 17 19 6 21 24 11 48 -0.11
-165 0 0 22 15 13 21 2 14 37 232 63 21 7 57 23 22 40 19 43 23 24 47 56 -0.11
-164 0 0 22 51 18 21 2 17 35 233 64 21 44 13 23 58 32 20 19 55 25 23 32 -0.11
-163 0 0 23 26 50 21 2 20 34 233 64 22 19 59 24 33 52 20 55 56 25 58 36 -0.11
-162 0 0 24 1 51 21 2 24 33 233 65 22 55 12 25 8 39 21 31 25 26 33 7 -0.11
-161 0 0 24 36 18 21 2 26 32 234 66 23 29 52 25 42 54 22 6 22 27 7 5 -0.11
-160 0 0 25 10 12 21 2 29 31 234 67 24 4 0 26 16 35 22 40 46 27 40 29 -0.11
-159 0 0 25 43 33 21 2 32 30 235 68 24 37 34 26 49 42 23 14 37 28 13 18 -0.11
-158 0 0 26 16 19 21 2 35 29 235 68 25 10 34 27 22 14 23 47 55 28 45 33 -0.11
-157 0 0 26 48 32 21 2 37 28 236 69 25 43 0 27 54 12 24 20 38 29 17 14 -0.11
-156 0 0 27 20 9 21 2 40 27 236 70 26 14 51 28 25 36 24 52 47 29 48 19 -0.11
-155 0 0 27 51 11 21 2 42 26 237 70 26 46 8 28 56 24 25 24 21 30 18 49 -0.11
-154 0 0 28 21 38 21 2 44 25 237 71 27 16 49 29 26 36 25 55 20 30 48 44 -0.11
-153 0 0 28 51 30 21 2 46 24 238 71 27 46 55 29 56 14 26 25 44 31 18 3 -0.11
-152 0 0 29 20 46 21 2 48 23 238 72 28 16 26 30 25 16 26 55 32 31 46 47 -0.11
-151 0 0 29 49 27 21 2 50 22 239 72 28 45 21 30 53 42 27 24 45 32 14 55 -0.11
-150 0 0 30 17 32 21 2 52 21 239 72 29 13 40 31 21 33 27 53 22 32 42 27 -0.11
-149 0 0 30 45 2 21 2 54 20 240 73 29 41 24 31 48 48 28 21 24 33 9 24 -0.11
-148 0 0 31 11 56 21 2 55 19 240 73 30 8 32 32 15 28 28 48 50 33 35 45 -0.11
-147 0 0 31 38 14 21 2 57 18 241 73 30 35 5 32 41 32 29 15 40 34 1 31 -0.11
-146 0 0 32 3 57 21 2 58 17 242 73 31 1 1 33 7 0 29 41 55 34 26 42 -0.11
-145 0 0 32 29 4 21 3 0 16 242 73 31 26 23 33 31 53 30 7 34 34 51 17 -0.11
-144 0 0 32 53 36 21 3 1 15 243 73 31 51 9 33 56 12 30 32 37 35 15 17 -0.11
-143 0 0 33 17 33 21 3 2 14 243 73 32 15 19 34 19 55 30 57 5 35 38 43 -0.11
-142 0 0 33 40 55 21 3 3 13 244 73 32 38 55 34 43 3 31 20 58 36 1 34 -0.11
-141 0 0 34 3 42 21 3 4 12 244 73 33 1 55 35 5 36 31 44 15 36 23 50 -0.11
-140 0 0 34 25 54 21 3 5 11 245 73 33 24 21 35 27 35 32 6 57 36 45 31 -0.11
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2016 Apr 26.0
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