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Updated: 2016 MAR 14, 01:31 UT
Event Rank : 13
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 May 04 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (7191) 1993 MA1 will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across New Zealand near Auckland, Gisborne and Rotorua.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.00 mag to 16.60 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 50 25 -32 13 39 12 48 3 37 103 -73 171 58 50 -32 12 38 171 41 59 -32 14 39 173 20 22 -32 1 51 170 17 27 -32 23 49 0.92
172 36 38 -33 19 21 12 48 20 38 102 -72 172 45 2 -33 18 15 172 28 12 -33 20 26 174 6 31 -33 6 45 171 3 45 -33 30 21 0.92
173 21 30 -34 24 14 12 48 37 39 101 -71 173 29 54 -34 23 4 173 13 5 -34 25 23 174 51 28 -34 10 53 171 48 36 -34 36 2 0.92
174 5 11 -35 28 23 12 48 53 40 100 -70 174 13 37 -35 27 9 173 56 45 -35 29 36 175 35 20 -35 14 20 172 32 8 -35 40 57 0.92
174 47 48 -36 31 54 12 49 10 41 99 -68 174 56 15 -36 30 36 174 39 20 -36 33 11 176 18 14 -36 17 9 173 14 29 -36 45 11 0.92
175 29 27 -37 34 49 12 49 27 42 97 -67 175 37 56 -37 33 28 175 20 57 -37 36 10 177 0 17 -37 19 25 173 55 45 -37 48 48 0.92
176 10 14 -38 37 14 12 49 44 42 96 -66 176 18 46 -38 35 49 176 1 41 -38 38 39 177 41 33 -38 21 12 174 36 3 -38 51 52 0.92
176 50 15 -39 39 11 12 50 1 43 95 -65 176 58 50 -39 37 42 176 41 39 -39 40 39 178 22 8 -39 22 32 175 15 28 -39 54 27 0.92
177 29 34 -40 40 43 12 50 18 44 93 -64 177 38 13 -40 39 11 177 20 54 -40 42 15 179 2 7 -40 23 28 175 54 6 -40 56 37 0.92
178 8 16 -41 41 54 12 50 35 44 92 -63 178 16 59 -41 40 19 177 59 32 -41 43 29 179 41 35 -41 24 3 176 32 0 -41 58 24 0.91
178 46 25 -42 42 46 12 50 52 45 90 -61 178 55 13 -42 41 7 178 37 36 -42 44 24 -179 39 26 -42 24 19 177 9 16 -42 59 51 0.91
179 24 6 -43 43 21 12 51 9 45 89 -60 179 32 59 -43 41 39 179 15 11 -43 45 2 -179 0 49 -43 24 20 177 45 57 -44 1 2 0.91
-179 58 39 -44 43 42 12 51 26 46 87 -59 -179 49 40 -44 41 57 179 52 21 -44 45 26 -178 22 33 -44 24 7 178 22 7 -45 1 57 0.91
-179 21 45 -45 43 51 12 51 43 46 86 -58 -179 12 40 -45 42 3 -179 30 52 -45 45 38 -177 44 32 -45 23 42 178 57 49 -46 2 41 0.91
-178 45 10 -46 43 50 12 52 0 46 84 -57 -178 35 58 -46 41 59 -178 54 23 -46 45 41 -177 6 43 -46 23 7 179 33 7 -47 3 14 0.91
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2016 Mar 14.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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